Do you want to discuss boring politics? (34 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Interesting. See, I wouldn’t call Polanski a “snake oil selling charlatan”, his ideas are just wrong and wouldn’t benefit the country.

You know and iirc, have posted about the difficulties of running a household, just how expensive it is to rent/own a home. For the vast majority of people, the highest outgoing is easily their housing costs and there’s significant evidence that immigration has driven us up. For the best part of a decade or two, house building has not kept up with net migration.

There are other economic issues at play, QE has had the unintended impact of transferring assets to wealthy individuals/companies. Home ownership is down 5% from 10-20 years ago which is sad.

I see Polanski as someone who's naive but means well. The grifters running Reform are intelligent but do not mean well, they're out to enrich themselves and their mates off the back of scapegoating foreigners. Zarah Sultana and 'Your Party' are running a grift too, in the interests of balance.

So you think my mortgage going up by £300 a month is because of immigration? Do explain. Should I be smearing a certain kind of immigrant for this, or all of them?

 

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[mmttww]

Comments like yours show just how disconnected many people on the left are in relation to understanding why people support Reform.

I understand why people support them. I think Farage is a brilliant grifter. I'm not convinced polling data is going to show that folks like Reform because they've got well considered, funded, long term plans to resolve an endemic housing crisis and hobbled public services. I've never heard or read Farage or anyone from Reform set out serious policies on anything beyond immigration and asylum.

 

[fernandopartridge]

I’m enjoying that you’re saying this with no irony whatsoever.

If you want to continue believing Reeves is “Thatcherite”, crack on mate. I won’t break that delusion.

Public spending as a % of GDP increased in the early 1980s. 1979-80 spending was likely based on Labour's plans at the time as well given the financial year started whilst they were still in government. Nominal GDP increased in that time as well so the actual £ spent was huge.

1979 – 80	40.9​
1980 – 81	42.8​
1981 – 82	42.9​
1982 – 83	43.2​

 

[CCFCSteve]

Once again MMT is a description of how currency creation works not a policy

But this is usually the precursor to suggesting that we can just spend what we want.
The challenge in response being but the bond markets will charge even more for borrowing, squeezing public funds further.
The response is then we don’t need the bond markets and we can print/borrow from BoE. The challenge being if you print endless amounts it debases currency (reduces purchasing power)/can cause inflation

That was my point. I actually agree with elements of what you say on the subject. But I just don’t think certain things can be done without consequences

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

What’s driving the fall in net migration? | National Statistical

blog.ons.gov.uk

no one wants 100k net I don’t think they just want zero small boat crossings

To answer my own question, they haven’t anything specifically. These are policies introduced by Sunak’s government.

On polling:

Do Brits think that immigration has been too high or low in the last 10 years?

Generally speaking, do you think the level of immigration into Britain over the last ten years has been too high, too low or about right?

yougov.co.uk

Would you support or oppose a move to increase the number of deportations of illegal immigrants from the UK? | Daily Question - from 2024 and other polling companies reckon the public has hardened its view

- 85% of this poll back migration less than 100k.

I see Polanski as someone who's naive but means well. The grifters running Reform are intelligent but do not mean well, they're out to enrich themselves and their mates off the back of scapegoating foreigners. Zarah Sultana and 'Your Party' are running a grift too, in the interests of balance.

So you think my mortgage going up by £300 a month is because of immigration? Do explain. Should I be smearing a certain kind of immigrant for this, or all of them?

If immigration outstrips housing, there’s more demand than supply of houses so prices increase. Therefore, the amount you borrow for your mortgage. The interest rates are unrelated to migration but the overall valuation of houses/rents will be.

Interest rates of 6-8% were relatively normal back in the 90-00s whereas now it risks a political crisis because may people borrow the maximum they can but means they have v little flexibility.

I understand why people support them. I think Farage is a brilliant grifter. I'm not convinced polling data is going to show that folks like Reform because they've got well considered, funded, long term plans to resolve an endemic housing crisis and hobbled public services. I've never heard or read Farage or anyone from Reform set out serious policies on anything beyond immigration and asylum.

The most important issue for many voters is immigration and Reform are the most trusted party on this issue, hence their poll lead.

Labour, LD, Tory and Green are equally guilty of not really plans on how to ‘fix’ public services. For example, Polanski loves to talk about ‘taxing the rich’ but the flagship policy of a wealth tax raises £20bn at best. Let’s assume £20bn is raised, it doesn’t move the dial on public services at all because it barely covers the expected rises in welfare spending.

 

[mmttww]

most important issue for many voters is immigration and Reform are the most trusted party on this issue, hence their poll lead.

which is their grift!

Persuade people that foreigners are the reason life sucks so you and your mates can crack on with hoarding wealth, dodging tax and all that good stuff.

I don't want to get in to the who's worse or better vs. other parties because that's not the point. I think it's a grift, you don't, happy to debate that on its own.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

To answer my own question, they haven’t anything specifically. These are policies introduced by Sunak’s government.

On polling:

Do Brits think that immigration has been too high or low in the last 10 years?

Generally speaking, do you think the level of immigration into Britain over the last ten years has been too high, too low or about right?

yougov.co.uk

Would you support or oppose a move to increase the number of deportations of illegal immigrants from the UK? | Daily Question - from 2024 and other polling companies reckon the public has hardened its view

- 85% of this poll back migration less than 100k.


If immigration outstrips housing, there’s more demand than supply of houses so prices increase. Therefore, the amount you borrow for your mortgage. The interest rates are unrelated to migration but the overall valuation of houses/rents will be.

Interest rates of 6-8% were relatively normal back in the 90-00s whereas now it risks a political crisis because may people borrow the maximum they can but means they have v little flexibility.



The most important issue for many voters is immigration and Reform are the most trusted party on this issue, hence their poll lead.

Labour, LD, Tory and Green are equally guilty of not really plans on how to ‘fix’ public services. For example, Polanski loves to talk about ‘taxing the rich’ but the flagship policy of a wealth tax raises £20bn at best. Let’s assume £20bn is raised, it doesn’t move the dial on public services at all because it barely covers the expected rises in welfare spending.

I want world peace and kindness and justice for all
The reason they want nil is that they don’t understand the problems we have and are being sold the delusion that reducing it to nil has no negative consequences and only positive ones which is of course absolute nonsense

46% of those that answered are idiots or are so stupid they don’t understand how society works

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

If immigration outstrips housing, there’s more demand than supply of houses so prices increase. Therefore, the amount you borrow for your mortgage. The interest rates are unrelated to migration but the overall valuation of houses/rents will be.

Interest rates of 6-8% were relatively normal back in the 90-00s whereas now it risks a political crisis because may people borrow the maximum they can but means they have v little flexibility.

We can also consider the population growth rate as a whole, the encouragement of private landlords to hoard extra properties and take them out of the market for purchase, the failure to keep on top of building more houses...and so on and so on. The immigrant is a popular bogeyman, I get it, and Farage is promising a land of milk and honey if they all piss off and we pull up the drawbridge, but I just don't see immigrants as the reason why my living costs take the piss out of two hardworking people.

I will be blunt, what's on the horizon with childcare costs is our biggest concern and that isn't to do with immigration, but a 'free working childcare' arrangement that punishes postgraduate parents like myself. It means that to qualify for access we can either get divorced or I can go on the dole, but if I continue doing STEM research we get nothing. There are others in the same situation and whoever designed the policy just didn't consider this possibility. It could be fixed with the stroke of a pen at a very minor additional cost.

Immigrants are nothing to do with that.

 

[fernandopartridge]

But this is usually the precursor to suggesting that we can just spend what we want.
The challenge in response being but the bond markets will charge even more for borrowing, squeezing public funds further.
The response is then we don’t need the bond markets and we can print/borrow from BoE. The challenge being if you print endless amounts it debases currency (reduces purchasing power)/can cause inflation

That was my point. I actually agree with elements of what you say on the subject. But I just don’t think certain things can be done without consequences

Never have I said we can just spend what we want, obviously there are limits but the debate has been ridiculously over simplified so that there is now a weird belief that all spending is inflationary where it clearly isn't. There is a lack of consumer and business demand which is backed up by the rate of company insolvency. Investment in the UK is the worst in the G7, and is now even lower than Italy. Nothing from Reeves seems to want to do anything meaningful about this.

Borrowing is a policy choice, it is not necessary to sell bonds it is just a choice to do so. A sovereign currency issuer does not need to borrow its own currency from private banks. But we'll just go round and round in circles on this so I do not wish to discuss any further.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

which is their grift!

Persuade people that foreigners are the reason life sucks so you and your mates can crack on with hoarding wealth, dodging tax and all that good stuff.

I don't want to get in to the who's worse or better vs. other parties because that's not the point. I think it's a grift, you don't, happy to debate that on its own.

They are modelling themselves on Trump and Musk who have indeed gone on to stab their voters in the back while organising a huge tax heist to transfer even more wealth into even fewer hands. Sacking hundreds of thousands of government workers, cutting access to healthcare and food assistance, all while not having made a dent in the cost of living either.

They too were elected off the back of blaming everyone's problems on foreigners.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

which is their grift!

Persuade people that foreigners are the reason life sucks so you and your mates can crack on with hoarding wealth, dodging tax and all that good stuff.

I don't want to get in to the who's worse or better vs. other parties because that's not the point. I think it's a grift, you don't, happy to debate that on its own.

It really isn’t. The public have been voting for lower immigration, they got consistently got the opposite. Labour and Tories made promises and didn’t keep them. The polling @chiefdave shows you exactly where their support is coming from; disaffected Tories, ‘small c’ conservative working class voters (i.e. red wall) and Gen Zers who do not care for the established parties.

Why are the Greens surging in the polls? This Labour government doesn’t feel left wing to voters of the left. Polanski is not a grifter, he’s articulating a POV that many left leaning voters want to hear. This is exactly what happened to the Tories and Reform cannibalised their vote share, the same is happening to Labour.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

It really isn’t. The public have been voting for lower immigration, they got consistently got the opposite. Labour and Tories made promises and didn’t keep them. The polling @chiefdave shows you exactly where their support is coming from; disaffected Tories, ‘small c’ conservative working class voters (i.e. red wall) and Gen Zers who do not care for the established parties.

Why are the Greens surging in the polls? This Labour government doesn’t feel left wing to voters of the left. Polanski is not a grifter, he’s articulating a POV that many left leaning voters want to hear. This is exactly what happened to the Tories and Reform cannibalised their vote share, the same is happening to Labour.

I agree with you on Polanski by the way, and I already vote Green in local elections because locally they have done a lot of good work. I did so at the last GE mostly as a protest vote in the knowledge that the Tories were going to lose heavily regardless.

Going into the next election however it's far from straightforward. I really wouldn't want to vote for any of the parties at the moment.

 

[mmttww]

It really isn’t. The public have been voting for lower immigration, they got consistently got the opposite.

I'm not talking about that. I accept people want immigration tackled. I don't accept it's the reason why food costs loads more, houses don't get built and that public services are underfunded. Reform's msg, largely through vibes, is that life will magically be better if there's less immigration and asylum seekers. I think they've ridden that myth this far and it's worked for them. It's a grift, because this narrative they stoke and perpetuate is total b*ll*cks.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I agree with you on Polanski by the way, and I already vote Green in local elections because locally they have done a lot of good work. I did so at the last GE mostly as a protest vote in the knowledge that the Tories were going to lose heavily regardless.

Going into the next election however it's far from straightforward. I really wouldn't want to vote for any of the parties at the moment.

That’s democracy

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

We can also consider the population growth rate as a whole, the encouragement of private landlords to hoard extra properties and take them out of the market for purchase, the failure to keep on top of building more houses...and so on and so on. The immigrant is a popular bogeyman, I get it, and Farage is promising a land of milk and honey if they all piss off and we pull up the drawbridge, but I just don't see immigrants as the reason why my living costs take the piss out of two hardworking people.

I will be blunt, what's on the horizon with childcare costs is our biggest concern and that isn't to do with immigration, but a 'free working childcare' arrangement that punishes postgraduate parents like myself. It means that to qualify for access we can either get divorced or I can go on the dole, but if I continue doing STEM research we get nothing. There are others in the same situation and whoever designed the policy just didn't consider this possibility. It could be fixed with the stroke of a pen at a very minor additional cost.

Immigrants are nothing to do with that.

If you build 200k houses a year and net migration is 350k and above… where are these new arrivals being housed? Again, all housebuilding targets are premised on net migration being 300k and simultaneously, not meeting housing targets and net migration significantly higher than 300k per annum.

Even on point of landlords, QE has created the conditions where companies and individuals can multiply their assets… but this doesn’t explain why prices have exploded to the extent they have. Housing is a resource that is competed for and if it’s scarce, prices will invariably increase. In economic terms, demand far exceeds the supply.

I agree with you on Polanski by the way, and I already vote Green in local elections because locally they have done a lot of good work. I did so at the last GE mostly as a protest vote in the knowledge that the Tories were going to lose heavily regardless.

Going into the next election however it's far from straightforward. I really wouldn't want to vote for any of the parties at the moment.

The Greens have got a significant advantages over Reform because it has a decent tradition of local campaigning, like the Lib Dems but less mature operationally.

Similar reasons to you, I voted Tory at the last election because on a fundamental level, did not trust Reform as an amateur party. If an election was held tomorrow, I’d vote Reform to kick out Labour. I’m in a minority who like Kemi Badenoch but not so much the institution of the Tory Party.

I wouldn’t quite call Labour and Tory the ‘Uniparty’ but can definitely identify with the idea that between them, they haven’t meaningfully moved on from “Blairism”. Wes Streeting is the epitome of this right now, probably an ideal Labour leader in the 2010s.

It’s too early to call, but if both Tory and Labour carry on, they will be surpassed by Reform and the Greens respectively.

 

[mmttww]

Going into the next election however it's far from straightforward. I really wouldn't want to vote for any of the parties at the moment.

Yeah, feeling the exact same and it feels really bleak.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I'm not talking about that. I accept people want immigration tackled. I don't accept it's the reason why food costs loads more, houses don't get built and that public services are underfunded. Reform's msg, largely through vibes, is that life will magically be better if there's less immigration and asylum seekers. I think they've ridden that myth this far and it's worked for them. It's a grift, because this narrative they stoke and perpetuate is total b*ll*cks.

Houses are being built, just at a slower rate than net migration. Likewise, more arrivals require more hospitals, roads, schools and so on. That’s a v basic principle that the electorate understands. Far from being a myth, it’s a reality that resonates with the majority of voters. The failure to grasp this has lead to a massive realignment across Europe that hitherto, had been avoided in the UK.

Whatever your view on them, you can account for them going from 10% in the polls to 30-35% over 12-18 months. It’s the same with the Greens and one suspects that if Labour got kicked out office, their vote share will be cannibalised.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

If you build 200k houses a year and net migration is 350k and above… where are these new arrivals being housed? Again, all housebuilding targets are premised on net migration being 300k and simultaneously, not meeting housing targets and net migration significantly higher than 300k per annum.

Even on point of landlords, QE has created the conditions where companies and individuals can multiply their assets… but this doesn’t explain why prices have exploded to the extent they have. Housing is a resource that is competed for and if it’s scarce, prices will invariably increase. In economic terms, demand far exceeds the supply.



The Greens have got a significant advantages over Reform because it has a decent tradition of local campaigning, like the Lib Dems but less mature operationally.

Similar reasons to you, I voted Tory at the last election because on a fundamental level, did not trust Reform as an amateur party. If an election was held tomorrow, I’d vote Reform to kick out Labour. I’m in a minority who like Kemi Badenoch but not so much the institution of the Tory Party.

I wouldn’t quite call Labour and Tory the ‘Uniparty’ but can definitely identify with the idea that between them, they haven’t meaningfully moved on from “Blairism”. Wes Streeting is the epitome of this right now, probably an ideal Labour leader in the 2010s.

It’s too early to call, but if both Tory and Labour carry on, they will be surpassed by Reform and the Greens respectively.

Well for starters, each house can accommodate more than one person...but yes in general it's a simple fact that if the population grows you'll need more housing to support them. As an interesting side point, there's about 100,000 divorces a year which will also presumably add to the demand for housing unless people try living together afterwards. Not an inconsiderable number of people also looking for places to stay.

The way I see it, over the last 50 years or so there has been a significant concentration of wealth in the hands of a shrinking number of people. The likes of Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg etc etc all hoarding obscene amounts of money while people are being told to accept shittier wages, shittier working conditions, shittier pensions, work longer till you can even get one etc etc. Yet I'm meant to be angry at decent people wanting to move here for work? It doesn't add up, it never has done in my view.

My utilities bills seem to be made up by a random number generator over at British Gas who record enormous profits while pleading that their hands are tied about how much they're charging. That again is nothing to do with immigrants.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Yeah, feeling the exact same and it feels really bleak.

I see the odious Wes Streeting clearly lining himself up to challenge Starmer and I feel disgusted. This Labour government really could have done transformative things that would have seen off the Reform threat and turned the country around. Instead it's doing the political equivalent of pissing about at the back, giving the ball away to NF9 and watching him score open goals.

 

[mmttww]

Far from being a myth, it’s a reality that resonates with the majority of voters.

Lots of myths resonate with voters. People think a magic man controls us all from the sky like puppets for a LOL. We need migration because we're not having many kids and there's whole industries dependant on cheap migrant labour, or skilled migrant labour, or both. Kicking 30,000 asylum seekers into the sea isn't going to address a lack of house building going back to the 80s and 90s.

if you genuinely think lower migration than we have now and knocking asylum seeking on the head will unpick enough cash and resources to fix some endemic problems that are the root causes of why people are f*cked off, fine. If you've got data that backs that up I'll take a look but if it's just what you think, there's no point talking about it. We'll just loop round and round on the same few points.

 

[mmttww]

I see the odious Wes Streeting clearly lining himself up to challenge Starmer and I feel disgusted. This Labour government really could have done transformative things that would have seen off the Reform threat and turned the country around. Instead it's doing the political equivalent of pissing about at the back, giving the ball away to NF9 and watching him score open goals.

Yeah, bang on. Absolutely gutted at the state of it.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Yeah, bang on. Absolutely gutted at the state of it.

Whats streeting done?

 

[CCFCSteve]

There is a lack of consumer and business demand which is backed up by the rate of company insolvency. Investment in the UK is the worst in the G7, and is now even lower than Italy. Nothing from Reeves seems to want to do anything meaningful about this.

Agree with this and it’s been my major frustration with the government. They were elected on a growth manifesto and then immediately talked the economy down after the election when they should’ve ridden the post Tory positivity wave. They then exacerbated the problem with emp’er NIC rise (rather than break manifesto tax pledge) and due to inability to show a semblance of control over rapidly increasing spending in areas such as welfare/pensions, borrowing costs have remained higher so public finances have been squeezed which reduces other ‘growth’ levers they could pull.

If it’s true they’ve bottled an income tax rise I think it’s a mistake.

Edit - to be fair to the government capital expenditure/investment won’t show through in 12-18months

 

[Grendel]

Interesting article

Starmer’s backers never meant him to be prime minister – his leadership was doomed from the start | Neal Lawson

His alliance with the party’s anti-Corbyn faction was a shotgun marriage that totally lacked vision. Now Labour is paying the price, says Neal Lawson of the cross-party campaign organisation Compass

www.theguardian.com

 

[Grendel]

Whats streeting done?

He’s clearly positioning himself to take over in May

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Whats streeting done?

Don't believe him for a moment

Streeting denies plotting against PM after leadership claims

Wes Streeting has urged Sir Keir Starmer to sack whoever is briefing the media about challenges to the PM's leadership.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Don't believe him for a moment

Streeting denies plotting against PM after leadership claims

Wes Streeting has urged Sir Keir Starmer to sack whoever is briefing the media about challenges to the PM's leadership.

www.bbc.co.uk

In fairness to Streeting, No. 10 has kicked off the briefings war and has been hostile to many cabinet ministers.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Interesting overview from Peston

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

In fairness to Streeting, No. 10 has kicked off the briefings war and has been hostile to many cabinet ministers.

He's about as slimy as it comes.

 

[Grendel]

Interesting overview from Peston

It’s another shitshow from Reeves

 

[fernandopartridge]

Interesting article

Starmer’s backers never meant him to be prime minister – his leadership was doomed from the start | Neal Lawson

His alliance with the party’s anti-Corbyn faction was a shotgun marriage that totally lacked vision. Now Labour is paying the price, says Neal Lawson of the cross-party campaign organisation Compass

www.theguardian.com

It sounds a bit like some of the posts I made a long time ago