Crunching the numbers - why we are almost certainly down now (1 Viewer)

[CJparker]

17 games to go - the teams directly above the relegation zone have a points total which, if taken to the end of the season, gives them 50 points - the often-cited survival benchmark in this division.

We currently have 22 points. So we need 28 points from 17 games to get to 50 points, which let's assume for now means safety.

To get 28 points from 17 games means either 8 wins and 4 draws, or, more implausibly, 7 wins and 7 draws with just 3 defeats.

Extrapolated over a season, that kind of form would give us about 75 points - which is play-off form.

So unless we can start playing like play-off contenders between now and the end of the season, it looks like bye-bye Championship.

 

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[thorn in my side]

17 games to go - the teams directly above the relegation zone have a points total which, if taken to the end of the season, gives them 50 points - the often-cited survival benchmark in this division.

We currently have 22 points. So we need 28 points from 17 games to get to 50 points, which let's assume for now means safety.

To get 28 points from 17 games means either 8 wins and 4 draws, or, more implausibly, 7 wins and 7 draws with just 3 defeats.

Extrapolated over a season, that kind of form would give us about 75 points - which is play-off form.

So unless we can start playing like play-off contenders between now and the end of the season, it looks like bye-bye Championship.

You have been busy !!!

Looks like a mountain to climb - but without the right gear.

 

[EleanorRigby]

During a season most if not all teams have their purple patch, we ain't had ours yet !

 

[Waldorf]

Statistics are wonderful things, they can prove anything.

Wake me up when we can't get enough points in actuality to stay up.

 

[ohitsaidwalker king power]

Since we were relegated teams have gone down from the championship with:-
2001/2= 49pts
2002/3= 46pts
2003/4= 51pts
2004/5= 50pts
2005/6= 42pts
2006/7= 42pts
2007/8= 52pts (Leicester shame!!)
2008/9= 46pts
2009/10= 47pts
2010/11= 42pts

43 points seems to have been enough on 3 occasions... but I suspect it might be closer to 48 this year. For us not likely?

 

[Otis]

We are still going to need at least 6 or 7 wins though I think.

Massive ask.

 

[The Reverend Skyblue]

We are still going to need at least 6 or 7 wins though I think.

Massive ask.

I'd say no chance at all with Thorn and his tactics.

He does'nt set the team up in the first place to win games, I'm sure someone said yesyerday that Nimely after a cracking debut playing down the centre was played out right yesterday. Can someone confirm for me where Nimely played yesterday, if he did play him out on the right, there you have clear evidence that he has'nt a clue.

if he did play him in the same position as against Boro then i will eat humble pie, again.
I still can not beleive that some people on here yesterday think Thorn is the best manager since Eric Black, can someone explain this to me as i'm dumbstruck by this comment.

The Rev

 

[Otis]

2nd half Nimely was mostly out on the wing for sure.

 

[stupot07]

He started centrally but ipswich were over running us and their fullbacks were bombing on and causing us problems. AT changed it to a 433 after about 20 mins which then coincided with our best spell and scoring the 2 goals.

 

[Glen]

We are down anyway we can only play 85 mins anyway so why bother