Match Thread Coventry City - Derby County Match Thread - Friday 3rd Apr (41 Viewers)

[Sky Blue Pete]

200+ minutes of match football is not the same as training. There will also be the mental side of not qualifying for a World Cup. I think he may be rested with Monday in mind.

Dasilva will play

 

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[Sky Blue Pete]

Back up to 99.94 wonder what it will be if Boro and milwall draw and we win on Good Friday

 

[shmmeee]

Back up to 99.94 wonder what it will be if Boro and milwall draw and we win on Good Friday

How is it changing when no one is playing?

 

[skybluecam]

How is it changing when no one is playing?

Player availability I assume

 

[edgy]

How is it changing when no one is playing?

Isnt based on something like 10000 simulations? So if those simulations are run daily, then it will potentially fluctuate a bit.

 

[covcity4life]

They've got their own issues with injuries/late returnees, we should have more than enough.

I'd take a draw in this game tbh. We can afford it and gets us a point closer to where we wanna go

 

[oakey]

Back up to 99.94 wonder what it will be if Boro and milwall draw and we win on Good Friday

I reckon it will be 100.2

 

[clint van damme]

I'd take a draw in this game tbh. We can afford it and gets us a point closer to where we wanna go

Be disappointed with a draw, though in the bigger picture, it wouldn't be a disaster.

 

[SomersetSB]

A win, down with this draw nonsense.
Frank and the players will want it done ASAP.
6-2 again!!

 

[Ccfcsj]

Back up to 99.94 wonder what it will be if Boro and milwall draw and we win on Good Friday

If, and I know it's a big if, Middlesbrough draw their next 2 and we win our next 3 it will be 100%. Alternatively, if we win our next 4 it will also be 100%

 

[Hincha]

Will be an interesting line-up for sure. Not sure any of the internationals make this one

Rushworth
MvE - Thomas - Kitching - Bidwell
Grimes - Torp
Saka - Eccles - BTA
Simms

JDS, Wright, Rudoni, Onyeka, EMC will all come on to get minutes before starting Monday

 

[Otis]

Agreed! As soon as I see "xg" in a post, I just scroll past. Means fuck all to me and many others!

Yeah, true and based on the single last game, we have only won 1 in a row.

Not that great really .

 

[Otis]

I'd take a draw in this game tbh. We can afford it and gets us a point closer to where we wanna go

Yeah, but I am confident we will win. Good feeling about this one.

 

[Frostie]

Norwich and ourselves I think are two teams who recruited heavily based on data and technical attributes but not so much on leadership qualities/personal attributes. Which is part of why they performed wildly differently under different managers who did and didn’t ‘get’ the players.

Just my opinion but this is a pattern I think that comes from focusing heavily on analytics. It has ultimately worked out very well for us and I expect Norwich will be right up there next season.

Recruitment is an absolute art & arguably the main reason we have been so successful. Brentford, Brighton in the PL & the likes of Bromley in L2 other great examples.

Sheffield United took the data too literally with a, questionable at best model, signing players based on AI & they were an unmitigated disaster.

Morgan Whittaker was massively outperforming his xG at Plymouth which is why Boro signed him, then his finishing went off a cliff. So there will be exceptions but that’s how I’ve interpreted it yes.

Yeah, this is why you need to be careful with all data. It's there to compliment the traditional 'eye test', expand your scouting reach or point you in a direction you wouldn't look previously. Whittaker scores a lot of long range shots which massively skews his xG performance.

 

[Incognitocov]

Recruitment is an absolute art & arguably the main reason we have been so successful. Brentford, Brighton in the PL & the likes of Bromley in L2 other great examples.

Sheffield United took the data too literally with a, questionable at best model, signing players based on AI & they were an unmitigated disaster.

Yeah, this is why you need to be careful with all data. It's there to compliment the traditional 'eye test', expand your scouting reach or point you in a direction you wouldn't look previously. Whittaker scores a lot of long range shots which massively skews his xG performance.

Is this the same Morgan Whittaker who is the top scorer for the team that is second in the league? I’ve seen worse signings.

11 goals, 6 assists XG 7.4

 

[Captain Dart]

Back up to 99.94 wonder what it will be if Boro and milwall draw and we win on Good Friday

We'll get a nice heads up because everybody else plays earlier.
If both chasing teams win then the team will not be relaxing and should be really up for it (well they should be anyway).
Conversely if the chasers drop points it's all good too. In a strange way it's a win win situation.

 

[skybluelee]

Will be an interesting line-up for sure. Not sure any of the internationals make this one

Rushworth
MvE - Thomas - Kitching - Bidwell
Grimes - Torp
Saka - Eccles - BTA
Simms

JDS, Wright, Rudoni, Onyeka, EMC will all come on to get minutes before starting Monday

Asking to lose if we make that many changes, we'd be so disjointed.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

How is it changing when no one is playing?

They run the model 10000 times

 

[Tealeaf]

Yeah, but I am confident we will win. Good feeling about this one.

WOW Otis I was expecting your 1-1 prediction , I'm with you on this - 2-0 win for the Sky Blues

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

They run the model 10000 times

A number of times a day and it flits back and forth from 99.94 to 99.86% so 6 times in 10000 or 14 times in 10000 we don’t go up

 

[MusicDating]

We'll get a nice heads up because everybody else plays earlier.
If both chasing teams win then the team will not be relaxing and should be really up for it (well they should be anyway).
Conversely if the chasers drop points it's all good too. In a strange way it's a win win situation.

Alex Neil not happy about that. Thinks everyone should kick off at the same time.

'Alex; meet Sky TV'...

Alex Neil: Millwall boss says promotion-chasing teams should play at the same time

Millwall boss Alex Neil believes their next four games starting before their promotion rivals gives their opponents an advantage.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

We'll get a nice heads up because everybody else plays earlier.
If both chasing teams win then the team will not be relaxing and should be really up for it (well they should be anyway).
Conversely if the chasers drop points it's all good too. In a strange way it's a win win situation.

That’s what Alex neill has been saying and I think he’s right

 

[CovveeBreak]

Alex Neil not happy about that. Thinks everyone should kick off at the same time.

'Alex; meet Sky TV'...

Alex Neil: Millwall boss says promotion-chasing teams should play at the same time

Millwall boss Alex Neil believes their next four games starting before their promotion rivals gives their opponents an advantage.

www.bbc.co.uk

I don't get this shit at all. Just go out and try to win every game you prat, Alex.

 

[Sky_Blue_Daz]

sod it an old fashioned 6-2 stuffing , goals from DaSilva { 2} Eccles hatrick and Ben Wilson in the last minute

 

[Matt Grimes' Beard]

How is it changing when no one is playing?

Vibes!!!!!

 

[CraigSBA]

Weve lost 4 home games in 17 months .. i dont expect us to lose this

 

[CovveeBreak]

I'm calling 2-2. Indexing towards caution with this one, as Derby with a lot to fight for, and think we'll need this game to blow the cobwebs out and get back up to speed for the run in. Think it will be a frustrating game overall with an expectant crowd.

 

[Macca1987]

I'm not sure why we are worrying, Derby have as many players potentially not available as us, maybe more. We are top of the league for a reason, we are the best, also our home form is the best, 3 points for me and onwards to Hull

 

[Matt Grimes' Beard]

Alex Neil not happy about that. Thinks everyone should kick off at the same time.

'Alex; meet Sky TV'...

Alex Neil: Millwall boss says promotion-chasing teams should play at the same time

Millwall boss Alex Neil believes their next four games starting before their promotion rivals gives their opponents an advantage.

www.bbc.co.uk

I don't get this at all. Does he think that if they drop points that any other team that is in the fight will not try and win their game?

Whether they win, lose or Draw, if you're one of the other teams in the autos picture, you'll want the maximum points on the board until it's a done deal.

He's just getting his excuses in early in case he needs them come May.

 

[Calista]

Back up to 99.94 wonder what it will be if Boro and milwall draw and we win on Good Friday

My maths isn't brilliant, but I make that less than one chance in 1600 that we miss out on promotion? I don't know how their modelling works, but I can't take that seriously.

To save anyone the bother of going through all the fixtures again to try and persuade me, there's no need - I agree that we are highly likely to do it. It's just those spurious numbers from Opta that I'm disputing.

 

[Calista]

A number of times a day and it flits back and forth from 99.94 to 99.86% so 6 times in 10000 or 14 times in 10000 we don’t go up

Garbage in, garbage out...

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

My maths isn't brilliant, but I make that less than one chance in 1600 that we miss out on promotion? I don't know how their modelling works, but I can't take that seriously.

To save anyone the bother of going through all the fixtures again to try and persuade me, there's no need - I agree that we are highly likely to do it. It's just those spurious numbers from Opta that I'm disputing.

Simulating the fixtures 10,000 times.

 

[Ccfcisparks]

My maths isn't brilliant, but I make that less than one chance in 1600 that we miss out on promotion? I don't know how their modelling works, but I can't take that seriously.

To save anyone the bother of going through all the fixtures again to try and persuade me, there's no need - I agree that we are highly likely to do it. It's just those spurious numbers from Opta that I'm disputing.

Its hardly spurious. Its highly mathematical. Bookies odds are similar. If you think they are wrong its worth putting a bet on.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Its hardly spurious. Its highly mathematical. Bookies odds are similar. If you think they are wrong its worth putting a bet on.

That’s how people do it

 

[Calista]

Its hardly spurious. Its highly mathematical. Bookies odds are similar. If you think they are wrong its worth putting a bet on.

Find me odds anything like 1600 to 1.