Match Thread Coventry City - Derby County Match Thread - Friday 3rd Apr (35 Viewers)

[fernandopartridge]

Your grammar is unforunate there FP

I've been misquoted

 

---

[Joe King]

XG blah blah blah - sooo dull

Agreed! As soon as I see "xg" in a post, I just scroll past. Means fuck all to me and many others!

 

[shmmeee]

Agreed! As soon as I see "xg" in a post, I just scroll past. Means fuck all to me and many others!

I’m the same with goals scored and conceded and league position. Boring!

 

[long way home]

Going into this game knowing the Boro and Millwall score is an advantage. But it still doesn't change the fact we all want the 3 pts from it. 3pts no injuries or suspensions and onto Hull is all i am thinking about. Once or if we are there is when i will allow myself to believe or focus on what lies ahead.

 

[Lamps]

As and when promotion is achieved I imagine you'll say "told you so", which would be completely missing the point

Edit: Opta's prediction implies less than a one in 700 chance of missing out. That's silly.

I totally get what you're saying. But for us to fail the two sides below us suddenly need to find form and we suddenly lose it. Going from 7 wins in 8 to maximum 1 win in 7 when our home form is solid and we still have Sheffield Wednesday to play.

Right near the end Ipswich play Middlesbrough at home. That takes points away from at least one of the sides that can't afford to drop points. Then they have to travel to Charlton, WBA and then Southampton who have won 11 and drawn 3 from their last 14 games. They have to play these 4 games in just 9 days.

Middlesbrough have hit a brick wall since we beat them. They're averaging 1 PPG. Hackney is out injured. They have Millwall next and still have to travel to Ipswich and Wrexham. They don't have a goalscorer on the pitch. They've had 65 shots in their last 3 games for a grand total of 1 goal against 3 sides near the bottom.

Just 2 more wins from our last 7 games should secure promotion. If Middlesbrough continue their form since we beat them to take back 1st place they won't even reach the points we're currently on.

Of course the odds could go against us. Just like Leicester won the Prem just 10 years ago. But for this to happen Middlesbrough and Ipswich need to win nearly every game and we lose nearly every game. It just isn't going to happen.

 

[clint van damme]

I’m the same with goals scored and conceded and league position. Boring!

What does this post mean?
Genuinely bemused by it.

 

[shmmeee]

What does this post mean?
Genuinely bemused by it.

Numbers mate. They’re for nerds. Boring.

 

[shmmeee]

Tbf I think it’s just dividing that’s for nerds. Basic addition and subtraction is OK but dividing is woke.

 

[clint van damme]

Numbers mate. They’re for nerds. Boring.

But one is a set of immutable metrics the other is a statistical tool, that while very useful, isn't infallible.
You can argue all day about how good xg is, and I personally think its very good and don't get people being totally dismissive of it, but you can't argue about points gained and goals scored, they're set in stone (unless you get done for cheating like Leicester).

 

[shmmeee]

But one is a set of immutable metrics the other is a statistical tool, that while very useful, isn't infallible.
You can argue all day about how good xg is, and I personally think its very good and don't get people being totally dismissive of it, but you can't argue about points gained and goals scored, they're set in stone (unless you get done for cheating like Leicester).

Or unless you get a dodgy VAR decision, or whatever. No model is infallible some are useful. xG is useful and the whiners generally just don’t understand it.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Or unless you get a dodgy VAR decision, or whatever. No model is infallible some are useful. xG is useful and the whiners generally just don’t understand it.

Possession which is probably the most useless as well as misleading of them all is still at the top of the stats section of any match report. Old habits die hard

 

[clint van damme]

Or unless you get a dodgy VAR decision, or whatever. No model is infallible some are useful. xG is useful and the whiners generally just don’t understand it.

I agree. But on the flip side of the coin you get the xg zealots who think it's more important than old fashioned stuff like actual goals!

 

[CovValleyBoy]

Nothing wrong with xg.
Gives one a sense of the story of a match.
A match you may not of watched but never the less had some interest in.

 

[clint van damme]

Nothing wrong with xg.
Gives one a sense of the story of a match.
A match you may not of watched but never the less had some interest in.

Although xg doesn't really prove its worth when analysing a team when applied only to one game, it needs to be looked at over a number of games to really be of use.

It's why Hull are such an outlier, because they've massively outperformed theirs over nearly a whole season.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Although xg doesn't really prove its worth when analysing a team when applied only to one game, it needs to be looked at over a number of games to really be of use.

It's why Hull are such an outlier, because they've massively outperformed theirs over nearly a whole season.

Or for example when judging strikers. Wright’s goals scored is nearly identical to his xG which shows he’s converting chances as you’d expect him to.

 

[TomRad85]

Or for example when judging strikers. Wright’s goals scored is nearly identical to his xG which shows he’s converting chances as you’d expect him to.

Genuine question, I've never found an answer to this. Is xG calculated per the league you are in, meaning you are using data for teams at your exact level and comparing to that or is it calculated far more widely than that and if so what is the scope? Prem to National League, Iceland Premier League to Azerbaijan Premier League?

 

[MusicDating]

How is it still not fucking Friday

 

[oneofourown]

What's all this crap being spouted on the match thread?

It's tomorrow, do we know the team? Will FL do the press conference today? Thank God i'm at work today so takes the mind off the game but come tomorrow and Tuesday we will have an even clearer idea of where we stand.
As each game comes nearer my mind becomes more focused on the opposition and every game I see the reasons why the other team will win, I did it against Swansea and now against Derby. They need the points for the play off challenge so will be up for it, but our lads always seem to find that next level and win.
I watched the videos with the F1 and was saying, 'why are they so relaxed' why are they not worried like us and sitting with a can of strong brew contemplating our next move.
I really don't know if I like this ride at present, too emotional, too happy, I'm a positive person but i don't know happiness. I'm walking around with a smile on my face and its confusing the neighbour's dog. I'm greeting rather than leering at people. And what makes it worse my colleague is a Spurs fan, and I am gloating.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Genuine question, I've never found an answer to this. Is xG calculated per the league you are in, meaning you are using data for teams at your exact level and comparing to that or is it calculated far more widely than that and if so what is the scope? Prem to National League, Iceland Premier League to Azerbaijan Premier League?

I assumed it was compared to all the available data.

 

[shmmeee]

Although xg doesn't really prove its worth when analysing a team when applied only to one game, it needs to be looked at over a number of games to really be of use.

It's why Hull are such an outlier, because they've massively outperformed theirs over nearly a whole season.

It can though. You can tell if a win was against the run of play or whether “we should have out five past them”. The problem with watching football without stats is we all have motivated reasoning when watching our own team, especially players we like or dislike. I can think a striker is crap and misses all the time when I just remember the misses but xG it GPM shows me whether that’s true and I think there’s value in that. Similarly I can rate all my teams chances as good and the opponents as poor and not a problem and overstate my teams dominance in a game.

 

[shmmeee]

I assumed it was compared to all the available data.

Depends on the model I believe. If it were me I’d have some weighting but you’d assume that all things being equal (assume spherical footballers) a PL striker against PL defence averages out roughly the same as a L1 striker vs L1 defence.

 

[TomRad85]

I assumed it was compared to all the available data.

I wonder how far that spreads though. If it goes as deep as I'd think it goes then you would think a Championship level striker would be able to outperform the 'average man' striker?
Eh im thinking about it too much, I just need a game now. I'm not a hater, I think its a useful tool to know if you are creating chances with regularity over a prolonged period but I've always said football isn't as easily summed up in stats as shitey American sports. Seen kids on Twitter saying Zidanes stats don't look all that, for example

 

[clint van damme]

Seen kids on Twitter saying Zidanes stats don't look all that, for example

Sweet lord!

 

[TomRad85]

Depends on the model I believe. If it were me I’d have some weighting but you’d assume that all things being equal (assume spherical footballers) a PL striker against PL defence averages out roughly the same as a L1 striker vs L1 defence.

Yeh from what I can tell, different sites don't all calculate it the same way?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I wonder how far that spreads though. If it goes as deep as I'd think it goes then you would think a Championship level striker would be able to outperform the 'average man' striker?
Eh im thinking about it too much, I just need a game now. I'm not a hater, I think its a useful tool to know if you are creating chances with regularity over a prolonged period but I've always said football isn't as easily summed up in stats as shitey American sports. Seen kids on Twitter saying Zidanes stats don't look all that, for example

As shmmeee says above, PL strikers against PL goalkeepers should be comparable for L1 strikers against Lee Burge.

Kids on Twitter don’t know they’re born, the best they’ll see is Declan Rice

 

[TomRad85]

As shmmeee says above, PL strikers against PL goalkeepers should be comparable for L1 strikers against Lee Burge.

Kids on Twitter don’t know they’re born, the best they’ll see is Declan Rice

So if you were searching for strikers from fairly shite leagues you'd be looking at the ones greatly outperforming their xG then wouldn't you rather than necessarily ones that have a lot of goals but about average xG conversion because their team creates a lot.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

So if you were searching for strikers from fairly shite leagues you'd be looking at the ones greatly outperforming their xG then wouldn't you rather than necessarily ones that have a lot of goals but about average xG conversion because their team creates a lot.

Morgan Whittaker was massively outperforming his xG at Plymouth which is why Boro signed him, then his finishing went off a cliff. So there will be exceptions but that’s how I’ve interpreted it yes.

 

[clint van damme]

As shmmeee says above, PL strikers against PL goalkeepers should be comparable for L1 strikers against Lee Burge.

Kids on Twitter don’t know they’re born, the best they’ll see is Declan Rice

And this is my issue with the stat zealots. Anyone trying to use them to make a case for Zidane not looking 'all that' really shouldn't be watching football.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

And this is my issue with the stat zealots. Anyone trying to use them to make a case for Zidane not looking 'all that' really shouldn't be watching football.

Norwich and ourselves I think are two teams who recruited heavily based on data and technical attributes but not so much on leadership qualities/personal attributes. Which is part of why they performed wildly differently under different managers who did and didn’t ‘get’ the players.

Just my opinion but this is a pattern I think that comes from focusing heavily on analytics. It has ultimately worked out very well for us and I expect Norwich will be right up there next season.

 

[TomRad85]

Norwich and ourselves I think are two teams who recruited heavily based on data and technical attributes but not so much on leadership qualities/personal attributes. Which is part of why they performed wildly differently under different managers who did and didn’t ‘get’ the players.

Just my opinion but this is a pattern I think that comes from focusing heavily on analytics. It has ultimately worked out very well for us and I expect Norwich will be right up there next season.

We also made an important known quantity signing last Jan in the form of our captain. I'd agree to an extent but i think Norwichs' business is more statty than ours.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

We also made an important known quantity signing last Jan in the form of our captain. I'd agree to an extent but i think Norwichs' business is more statty than ours.

Their season this year has a lot of parallels to ours last season I think and the recruitment is similar imo. Obviously Manning was far worse than final stage Robins but again with a manager who gels with the group their results since have been excellent.

 

[Captain Dart]

Agreed! As soon as I see "xg" in a post, I just scroll past. Means fuck all to me and many others!

'Topics that I scroll past' would make a revealing thread.

 

[Ccfc_Addy]

Tomorrow's going to be fucking great, expecting a bumper and rowdy crowd at the CBS and a fairly routine if unspectacular win. 2-0 or 1-0, one step closer to the ultimate prize, everyone buzzing before a tough away day at Hull

 

[skybluecam]

Sheff Utd, Brum, WBA, Wrexham to name a few more. I'm not anti-stats, I just question why anyone would rely on the power of numbers to predict human behaviour, or the power of the past to predict the future.

I mean, people are quoting the forecasts of >98% for the title and virtually 100% for promotion, which just aren't sensible IMHO.

If the table was exactly the same as the actual one it would tell you nothing

The forecasts are pretty accurate I'd say (without wanting to jinx anything, it's not done yet). Even if all the other contenders win all their games, and the games between them are drawn we'd only need 8-9 points from 7 games and that's a worst case scenario.

 

[steve101]

Why are people saying Dasilva is a doubt, did he go off? If not, he's played a Tuesday night walk about friendly in Cardiff. He'd have put more effort into a training session at Ryton.

Worst case:

Rushworth
MVE, Thomas, Kitching, Dasilva
Grime, Onyeka
Tats, (Eccles, BTA, Esse, Markelo - choose 2 from 4!)
Simms

Which is why we're miles clear at the top. The squad is the best its ever been.

200+ minutes of match football is not the same as training. There will also be the mental side of not qualifying for a World Cup. I think he may be rested with Monday in mind.