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Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (55 Viewers)

  • Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
  • Start date Feb 23, 2020
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W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,691
CCFCSteve said:
Thanks. Love a bit of covid data analysis. Do we know how many of the 300 vaccinated had to stay at least overnight and unfortunately died BSB ? (Also ages ?)
Click to expand...
Interesting to extrapolate mortality at roughly one in a thousand , still not nice though,hate to sound so cold when discussing., also ten % (approx or just lower) of those hospitalised .
Sort of similar as in first wave.
Think anecdotally bods on TV are still saying victims are generally old and frail.
Which poses the question it likely that demographic have more than likely had two doses.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,692
Brighton Sky Blue said:
One dose, less than 21 days:
303 total cases
36 A+E visits
6 overnight stays
0 deaths

One dose, 21 days or more:
1,364 total cases
178 A+E visits
42 overnight stays
3 deaths

Two doses, timeframe unspecified:
267 total cases
30 A+E visits
10 overnight stays
2 deaths

Seems quite apparent from this admittedly not large data set that one dose offers limited protection in the longer term. I might suggest that further acceleration of second doses and an expansion of first doses to all 18+ is what we need
Click to expand...

I read a post on Twitter earlier, there have been some studies into mix dosing AZ / Pfizer which have apparently gone very well
 
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,693
fernandopartridge said:
I read a post on Twitter earlier, there have been some studies into mix dosing AZ / Pfizer which have apparently gone very well
Click to expand...
Hope so,fancy that for my booster come Autumn/ Winter
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,694
wingy said:
Interesting to extrapolate mortality at roughly one in a thousand , still not nice though,hate to sound so cold when discussing., also ten % (approx or just lower) of those hospitalised .
Sort of similar as in first wave.
Think anecdotally bods on TV are still saying victims are generally old and frail.
Which poses the question it likely that demographic have more than likely had two doses.
Click to expand...

In terms of NHS burden I think overnight stay is the key marker.
 
Reactions: wingy
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,695
fernandopartridge said:
I read a post on Twitter earlier, there have been some studies into mix dosing AZ / Pfizer which have apparently gone very well
Click to expand...

I'll have a dig around see if I can find them

Ed: The Oxford study into mixed dosing reported initial findings last month, but they're still a way off from knowing conclusively how the immune response is affected
 
Last edited: Jun 3, 2021
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,696
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
It doesn't sound like you leave the UK much, so perhaps to you it isn't really an issue.

Your point about 'frothing about one country' isn't as much of an insult as you think it is. You think the way the government handled the India situation was correct? Clearly it wasn't. I don't think you will find many people who disagree with that either. You cannot just throw Portugal in with India, otherwise (despite what you say) it is a 'close all borders' or 'open all borders' situation. Portugal is a completely different animal.

You are trying to infer that one is hypocritical because not wanting flights coming in from India automatically should mean that we shouldn't want flights coming in from anywhere else. It is ridiculous hill to die on, and deflects from the point of Portugal. Again though, you know that. You know it is a pathetic decision to take them off the green list, but it is easier to try and get upset with me than defend it outright.
Click to expand...

If you don’t want flights from India because of its variant, then you also shouldn’t be wanting flights from any other country where the variant has been identified as spreading fast and gaining dominance (oh god, you still haven’t read the data you asked for, have you?) And you certainly wouldn’t want to be encouraging/funnelling people to holiday there, right?

Clearly the two countries aren’t directly comparable, but the government has decided that it doesn’t matter how many Indian flights you block if you don’t also address it coming in from other places too. Not much fun for the Club 18-30 crowd, I know, but apparently the June 21 reopening back here takes priority. And yet for some reason you’re upset about it.

You’re so close to getting this, but still you’re stuck on India/China = scary foreigners with the variant and Portugal/Spain = fry-ups and Only Fools & Horses by the pool.

What would I know though, apparently I don’t even travel overseas much.
 
Reactions: COV

samccov1987

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,697
The 21st always struck me as the target they would have to row back on. I could never understand how you could remove the social distancing rules before all adults had received their first dose.

likewise foreign travel; as much as we all would love a holiday why not just keep the borders shut until the vaccine rollout was finished?

I don’t think any of this is end of the world given shops are open and we can have a pint. However I think we’re looking at September once we’ve all had two jabs before social distancing is done and given some of the variants appearing that may still be needed over winter.

it’s not good but I can cope with what we currently have.
 
Reactions: AOM and oakey
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,698
samccov1987 said:
The 21st always struck me as the target they would have to row back on. I could never understand how you could remove the social distancing rules before all adults had received their first dose.

likewise foreign travel; as much as we all would love a holiday why not just keep the borders shut until the vaccine rollout was finished?

I don’t think any of this is end of the world given shops are open and we can have a pint. However I think we’re looking at September once we’ve all had two jabs before social distancing is done and given some of the variants appearing that may still be needed over winter.
Click to expand...

For mostly selfish reasons I would like to see the numbers allowed at weddings increased to the 50 already permitted in Scotland. I would also say that as we press into July and August indoor mixing is much less of a concern in general as we saw last summer. Foreign travel I agree I see no reason for
 

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,699
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Looking more closely at the data it seems that secondary schools are showing the greatest acceleration in outbreaks. Funny that we were told schools were safe/don't vaccinate the teachers/schools don't transmit. However looking at the 'Delta' cases so far

9,500 cases since start of February
840 went to A + E
Of the 840, 540 had not been vaccinated.
Of the 540, 150 had to stay at least overnight
Of the 150, there were 11 deaths.
Click to expand...

There have been 4.49 million reported cases of Covid in the UK, with 128k deaths. That is a death rate of 2.85% roughly (bear in mind these are reported cases).

The Covid death rate for that (Indian/Delta) variant works out at 0.12%, using the numbers above (9,500 cases and 11 deaths).

Today's tactic about Portugal is going towards softening the blow for them delaying lifting of final restrictions I think.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,700
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
There have been 4.49 million reported cases of Covid in the UK, with 128k deaths. That is a death rate of 2.85% roughly (bear in mind these are reported cases).

The Covid death rate for that (Indian/Delta) variant works out at 0.12%, using the numbers above (9,500 cases and 11 deaths).

Today's tactic about Portugal is going towards softening the blow for them delaying lifting of final restrictions I think.
Click to expand...

17 deaths once vaccinated and unlinked are included, but yes. I also wonder, and haven't seen any data on, whether the proportion of asymptomatic cases is going up or down as the variants become more infectious. The classic figure for vanilla COVID and the Alpha/Kent variant is about a third with no symptoms, for comparison
 

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,701
SBT said:
If you don’t want flights from India because of its variant, then you also shouldn’t be wanting flights from any other country where the variant has been identified as spreading fast and gaining dominance (oh god, you still haven’t read the data you asked for, have you?) And you certainly wouldn’t want to be encouraging/funnelling people to holiday there, right?

Clearly the two countries aren’t directly comparable, but the government has decided that it doesn’t matter how many Indian flights you block if you don’t also address it coming in from other places too. Not much fun for the Club 18-30 crowd, I know, but apparently the June 21 reopening back here takes priority. And yet for some reason you’re upset about it.

You’re so close to getting this, but still you’re stuck on India/China = scary foreigners with the variant and Portugal/Spain = fry-ups and Only Fools & Horses by the pool.

What would I know though, apparently I don’t even travel overseas much.
Click to expand...

No, you clearly don't travel much, and you have shown your true colours again. Making it all about attitudes towards foreigners, when it is nothing of the sort. It shows you haven't got a clue, and actually just proves your quite strange agenda.

As I have written above, the Delta variant isn't more deadly. It also accounts for 75% of the cases in the UK at the moment. That means Pandora's box has already been opened. You do get that right?

The 'data' you posted, isn't even data. You were hoping I wouldn't read it and therefore could secretly score some secret points, but you have actually played yourself well and truly. That link shows a graph and the fact there have been 68 cases of Delta/Indian variant in Portugal. There have already been 9,500 here (at least). It is a shit excuse really, but you know that. You just detest the idea of the Albufeira crew more than you do the virus. That's your angle here, which is probably also a front for the fact you are a coward too.
 

COV

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,702
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Looking more closely at the data it seems that secondary schools are showing the greatest acceleration in outbreaks. Funny that we were told schools were safe/don't vaccinate the teachers/schools don't transmit. However looking at the 'Delta' cases so far

9,500 cases since start of February
840 went to A + E
Of the 840, 540 had not been vaccinated.
Of the 540, 150 had to stay at least overnight
Of the 150, there were 11 deaths.
Click to expand...

so what do you do for a living m8
 
Reactions: SBT
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,703
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
No, you clearly don't travel much, and you have shown your true colours again. Making it all about attitudes towards foreigners, when it is nothing of the sort. It shows you haven't got a clue, and actually just proves your quite strange agenda.

As I have written above, the Delta variant isn't more deadly. It also accounts for 75% of the cases in the UK at the moment. That means Pandora's box has already been opened. You do get that right?

The 'data' you posted, isn't even data. You were hoping I wouldn't read it and therefore could secretly score some secret points, but you have actually played yourself well and truly. That link shows a graph and the fact there have been 68 cases of Delta/Indian variant in Portugal. There have already been 9,500 here (at least). It is a shit excuse really, but you know that. You just detest the idea of the Albufeira crew more than you do the virus. That's your angle here, which is probably also a front for the fact you are a coward too.
Click to expand...

Can tell we’ve got an amateur author at work here, the amount of effort you’ve put into the character building is just marvellous. Filling in all those blanks about my personality all by yourself, great stuff!

PS - the data don’t show 68 cases anymore, clicking through would have told you that. But you tried!
 
Reactions: COV
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 3, 2021
  • #46,704
COV said:
so what do you do for a living m8
Click to expand...

Food taster, voluntary
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,705
SBT said:
Can tell we’ve got an amateur author at work here, the amount of effort you’ve put into the character building is just marvellous. Filling in all those blanks about my personality all by yourself, great stuff!

PS - the data don’t show 68 cases anymore, clicking through would have told you that. But you tried!
Click to expand...

You have just admitted that the solid data in the article you posted was wrong. You've well and truly peaked.

You paint a pretty good picture of yourself without me really needing to enhance anything too. Of course, that is epitomised by your extremely creative username, but really qualified by your counter arguments to the green list being the sum total of 'you are a racist' and 'I'm ashamed of my own countrymen who go on package holidays to cheap resorts'.

Amateur author, maybe, but if you want any tips on how to polish off that book you never got round to finishing, please let me know. I'm sorry to hear that it is still eating away at you.
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,706
Brighton Sky Blue said:
For mostly selfish reasons I would like to see the numbers allowed at weddings increased to the 50 already permitted in Scotland. I would also say that as we press into July and August indoor mixing is much less of a concern in general as we saw last summer. Foreign travel I agree I see no reason for
Click to expand...
Not all foreign travel is for holidays, there are people who haven’t seen family members in years.
 
Reactions: skyblueinBaku
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,707
I was thinking last night (as you do at 330am)....I wonder if putting countries on red list at short notice (with threat of hotels) is actually worsening the issue.

It sounds counterintuitive but if you think about it, with the Indian variant, we stick India on red list and what happens, everyone rushes back in a shortened period packing planes/airports out, potentially bringing big lumps of a new variant back at the same time and potentially into specific locations. The same with people returning from Portugal after the CL final by the sounds of it. Fact is we obviously don’t have enough red list hotel rooms for the numbers still travelling, hence the lag between announcement and enforcement, and people are doing everything to avoid them....and then some not even bothering self isolating anyway but that’s another issue.

Not really sure what we can do about it other than close borders totally (not going to happen), enforce stricter rules for travel (ie providing evidence for reasons to travel) and/or potentially
reducing departure flights* out to these locations when you start to see transmission/variant issue. If they do this remove threat of red list hotels (or maybe just have shorter time ie five days) on return and focus on having closer controls/checks on a steadier flow of returning passengers rather than big lumps. Basically direct track and trace to focus solely on people returning from high/red list countries.

Just a dull Friday thought anyway.

*Nightmare for airlines regarding planes if you reduce departure flights though.
 
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,708
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
You have just admitted that the solid data in the article you posted was wrong. You've well and truly peaked.
Click to expand...

Data being wrong because they update is a new one for me, I must admit. Again, you would have seen this if you’d taken 30 seconds to click through and read it, rather than just quote from the government press release. But maybe I just asked too much of you - that’s on me.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,709
Someone post something positive please, just read some very worrying data on vaccine efficacy over time against the new variant.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,710
shmmeee said:
Someone post something positive please, just read some very worrying data on vaccine efficacy over time against the new variant.
Click to expand...

Pfizer and AstraZeneca ‘highly effective’ against India Covid variant

A Public Health England study has revealed the vaccines can be up to 88% effective after a second dose
www.theguardian.com
 

Skybluefaz

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,711
shmmeee said:
Someone post something positive please, just read some very worrying data on vaccine efficacy over time against the new variant.
Click to expand...
It's Friday.
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,712
shmmeee said:
Someone post something positive please, just read some very worrying data on vaccine efficacy over time against the new variant.
Click to expand...

Don't drag the rest of us down with it then
 

Saddlebrains

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,713
Horrible this is now. Had enough
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,714
shmmeee said:
Someone post something positive please, just read some very worrying data on vaccine efficacy over time against the new variant.
Click to expand...

By June 21st we will very likely have double jabbed the top 9 groups and first jabbed 80%
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,715
Sick Boy said:
Not all foreign travel is for holidays, there are people who haven’t seen family members in years.
Click to expand...

It should be for things that are absolutely essential. I’m sure those who went to India saw no harm in it and look where we are. Mandatory quarantine for all arrivals and I’d allow it
 

Saddlebrains

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,716
Brighton Sky Blue said:
By June 21st we will very likely have double jabbed the top 9 groups and first jabbed 80%
Click to expand...



But thats looking more and more a waste of time now isnt it
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,717
Brighton Sky Blue said:
By June 21st we will very likely have double jabbed the top 9 groups and first jabbed 80%
Click to expand...

It’s the “reduced efficacy after three months post second jab” but that’s worrying me.

April was “second jab month”, which means efficacy will start dropping for the most vulnerable around August time, which is also when the summer lull starts to end. Just hope we can get boosters out I suppose
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,718
shmmeee said:
It’s the “reduced efficacy after three months post second jab” but that’s worrying me.

April was “second jab month”, which means efficacy will start dropping for the most vulnerable around August time, which is also when the summer lull starts to end. Just hope we can get boosters out I suppose
Click to expand...

The plan has always been for autumn boosters and the orders for these have already been placed. Janssen will be online by then too.
 

hill83

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,719
Isn’t it always the case that any sort of jab wears off over time? Or have I completely misunderstood how they work.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,720
Saddlebrains said:
But thats looking more and more a waste of time now isnt it
Click to expand...

No it isn’t when you look at the hospitalisation and infection data. Of the 9500 variant cases up to June 1st well over half were unvaccinated and this group was also the majority of those who had to stay in hospital.

The sad reality is that thousands will still likely die this winter despite the booster jabs, just as what happens with flu every year.
 
Reactions: CCFCSteve

TomRad85

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,721
hill83 said:
Isn’t it always the case that any sort of jab wears off over time? Or have I completely misunderstood how they work.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure there are a few jabs you only get once. Usually when you are young.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,722
Brighton Sky Blue said:
It should be for things that are absolutely essential. I’m sure those who went to India saw no harm in it and look where we are. Mandatory quarantine for all arrivals and I’d allow it
Click to expand...
It you’re arguing for fully vaccinated people to be quarantining upon arrival, do you actually have faith in the vaccines?
Presumably everyone at your wedding will have received both doses?
 

hill83

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,723
TomRad85 said:
Pretty sure there are a few jabs you only get once. Usually when you are young.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Good point. I was thinking more along the lines of the flu jab. But I think that’s because the flu virus itself is constantly changing.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,724
Sick Boy said:
It you’re arguing for fully vaccinated people to be quarantining upon arrival, do you actually have faith in the vaccines?
Presumably everyone at your wedding will have received both doses?
Click to expand...

That is different but unless I am mistaken you are not fully vaccinated? Everyone at ours will have had one, I estimate about 60% will have had two assuming no further acceleration of those doses.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jun 4, 2021
  • #46,725
hill83 said:
Good point. I was thinking more along the lines of the flu jab. But I think that’s because the flu virus itself is constantly changing.
Click to expand...

They make flu boosters every year by anticipating the most likely new strains to be around. With COVID that would be much easier as we are tracking all the time what the most prevalent variants are
 
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