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Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (11 Viewers)

  • Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
  • Start date Feb 23, 2020
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Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,211
Wow there’s a statistic

102000 people with Covid treated in hospital in the last month. A third of the total number treated in hospital during the whole pandemic!!!

What a mistake allowing it to get out of hand in December
 

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,212
shmmeee said:
614,114

Average of 2015-19: 531,129
Click to expand...

Is that England and Wales, or UK as a whole?

Sorry, just something doesn't add up here.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,213
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
Is that England and Wales, or UK as a whole?

Sorry, just something doesn't add up here.
Click to expand...

Why? 120k covid deaths, many elderly who would probably be expected to die this year anyway.
 
Reactions: Brylowes

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,214
fernandopartridge said:
Why? 120k covid deaths, many elderly who would probably be expected to die this year anyway.
Click to expand...

I'm trying to compare facts and figures correlating with population growth but pretty much every website has different information.

Even 'full fact' (a source previously used on this board) has posted two corrections on its article.

It's a mire.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,215
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
Is that England and Wales, or UK as a whole?

Sorry, just something doesn't add up here.
Click to expand...

England and Wales.

I used the SUM() function, so I’m fairly sure it’s added up.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,216
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
I'm trying to compare facts and figures correlating with population growth but pretty much every website has different information.

Even 'full fact' (a source previously used on this board) has posted two corrections on its article.

It's a mire.
Click to expand...

Why wouldn’t you just go to the source?

Data isn’t simple. A basic calculation of this year - last year has its caveats (last year might have been a particularly high year, the rate was expected to fall so even a steady rate is a relative rise, etc).

Even an average of the last five years has to account for the fact that recently deaths haven’t been dropping as much as historically. Whether this is a temporary or permanent levelling off is another question.

How many caveats you want to account for and how serious you think they are is up to you and your purpose.
 

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,217
shmmeee said:
Why wouldn’t you just go to the source?

Data isn’t simple. A basic calculation of this year - last year has its caveats (last year might have been a particularly high year, the rate was expected to fall so even a steady rate is a relative rise, etc).

How many caveats you want to account for and how serious you think they are is up to you and your purpose.
Click to expand...

Surely data is simple here on face value? Either you're breathing or you're not.

So many sources of information say different things, so I don't think it is any conspiracy just to ask questions. So far all we've got is agent Shmmeee with his bloody abacus!

 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,218
Worth point out excess deaths and excess winter deaths are not comparable. Is that maybe what is causing confusion?

Excess deaths, which people use in relation to covid, is the difference between the death rate now and the average of the previous 5 years.

Excess winter deaths is a comparison of the December to March death rate with the average of the four months before and four months after. The five year average is over 32K which you have to factor in when you look at the high year which was winter 14/15 where the figure rose to just under 44K so its not 44K above normal, its 12K above normal. Wasn't that down to the prediction of which flu strain would be dominant that winter being wrong?

To add to the confusion the ONS have decided to remove covid deaths from this years excess winter death figures so it is comparable to previous years.
 
Reactions: shmmeee

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,219
shmmeee said:
England and Wales.

I used the SUM() function, so I’m fairly sure it’s added up.
Click to expand...

Death rate back to early 2000s levels – Full Fact

The death rate fell considerably over the past two decades, as life expectancy improved. 2020 saw these improvements reversed.
fullfact.org

Here's another one. Says that 2008 was worse.

That was the year we had Mifsud, so pretty recent.

Other articles are saying where we are is comparable to one of the years the Luftwaffe came to visit.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,220
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
Surely data is simple here on face value? Either you're breathing or you're not.

So many sources of information say different things, so I don't think it is any conspiracy just to ask questions. So far all we've got is agent Shmmeee with his bloody abacus!

Click to expand...

Nothing is simple.

But yeah, those numbers I have are about as raw as it gets. Registered deaths by week from the ONS all causes.

Even then: we know January 2020 was unusually low I believe and would drag that number down, similarly Jan 2021 would show huge increases, should we take something like a financial year instead? Always choices to make. Always arguments to have. But at some point you’re either intentionally hiding what the data is telling you it you’re torturing it beyond all recognition.

No serious analysis of the death data during this pandemic is going to come out saying anything other than tens of thousands of extra people died, even with all the restrictions. Equally we will come out with one of, if not the, highest death rates in the world. The reasons for that can, and certainly will, be debated. But the fact remains.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,221
Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:

Death rate back to early 2000s levels – Full Fact

The death rate fell considerably over the past two decades, as life expectancy improved. 2020 saw these improvements reversed.
fullfact.org

Here's another one. Says that 2008 was worse.

That was the year we had Mifsud, so pretty recent.

Other articles are saying where we are is comparable to one of the years the Luftwaffe came to visit.
Click to expand...

That’s the death rate. I edited a post about that earlier with a link to a Sky article explaining (long article, quite a way down, look for the graph I posted).
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,222
Here’s a good comparison, the death rate at the peak of WW2 was lower than 1910, no one is going to say people didn’t die in WW2

 
Reactions: chiefdave

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,223
shmmeee said:
Nothing is simple.

But yeah, those numbers I have are about as raw as it gets. Registered deaths by week from the ONS all causes.

Even then: we know January 2020 was unusually low I believe and would drag that number down, similarly Jan 2021 would show huge increases, should we take something like a financial year instead? Always choices to make. Always arguments to have. But at some point you’re either intentionally hiding what the data is telling you it you’re torturing it beyond all recognition.

No serious analysis of the death data during this pandemic is going to come out saying anything other than tens of thousands of extra people died, even with all the restrictions. Equally we will come out with one of, if not the, highest death rates in the world. The reasons for that can, and certainly will, be debated. But the fact remains.
Click to expand...

Yeah exactly. I'm not coming at this from any particular angle, I'm just getting pretty fed up of hearing sound bites from the news so was trying to research it a bit more.

Wish I hadn't bothered.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 11, 2021
  • #42,224
Saddlebrains said:
Headlines like this are fucking rife at the moment.

Im struggling this time round If i see much more of this kind of 'news' it just makes it fucking worse.

Sorry about the language. Fucking pissed off
Click to expand...

Just don’t watch it and don’t look, things are shite enough without seeing journalists find excuses for their salaries.
 
Reactions: Saddlebrains

Ccfcisparks

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,225

UK's Covid R rate now falls below 1 in EVERY region

Department of Health bosses declared another 15,144 coronavirus infections - down almost 21 per cent in a week, meaning 4million Britons have tested positive since the pandemic began.
www.dailymail.co.uk

This scaremongering is really really annoying me now. Quite clearly this article is written to be reactionary.
 
Reactions: Saddlebrains
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,226
Ccfcisparks said:

UK's Covid R rate now falls below 1 in EVERY region

Department of Health bosses declared another 15,144 coronavirus infections - down almost 21 per cent in a week, meaning 4million Britons have tested positive since the pandemic began.
www.dailymail.co.uk

This scaremongering is really really annoying me now. Quite clearly this article is written to be reactionary.
Click to expand...

Yeah it’s just toxic. If vaccinations don’t lead to relaxing of measures then good luck convincing people to get them.
 

MusicDating

Euro 2016 Prediction League Champion!!
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,227
Giving social media and MSM a break is very good advice. Just keep an eye on the daily figures and briefings if you need to (as despite the bollocks, they will inform exactly what is going to happen (well until the u-turn)). A mate of mine was struggling too and it was a vicious circle as he read more to try and find some good news. He's a lot better after a break from it.

Remember their job is to get clicks, so running a 'Covid is here forever' story is no different to a 'Robins said this shocking news about one his strikers' story really...
 
Reactions: Brylowes, Earlsdon_Skyblue1, Saddlebrains and 1 other person

Liquid Gold

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,228
The gutter press is really reaching a new level of shit in order for clicks at the moment. I agree about giving it a break if your mental health is struggling. All I’ve been looking at are the vaccination graphs that I share on here occasionally.

Mother in law was done yesterday so will be on the next set of numbers. Keep them coming.
 
Reactions: Brylowes, shmmeee, MusicDating and 1 other person
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,229
Liquid Gold said:
The gutter press is really reaching a new level of shit in order for clicks at the moment. I agree about giving it a break if your mental health is struggling. All I’ve been looking at are the vaccination graphs that I share on here occasionally.

Mother in law was done yesterday so will be on the next set of numbers. Keep them coming.
Click to expand...

Yeah. There will be a drop in the vaccine numbers as Pfizer does some production work, but think we have planned in for that and will move into second jabs while that’s going on.
 

Liquid Gold

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,230
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Yeah. There will be a drop in the vaccine numbers as Pfizer does some production work, but think we have planned in for that and will move into second jabs while that’s going on.
Click to expand...
We're hopefully going to get some Moderna stock in soon. It would be good timing if that dropped as Pfizer dropped back. My mother in law was given Pfizer so they must be confident of having at least 12 weeks worth of stock on it.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,231
Liquid Gold said:
We're hopefully going to get some Moderna stock in soon. It would be good timing if that dropped as Pfizer dropped back. My mother in law was given Pfizer so they must be confident of having at least 12 weeks worth of stock on it.
Click to expand...

The Pfizer delay will be just about two weeks I think, no issue with that as normal service will resume thereafter
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,232
Liquid Gold said:
We're hopefully going to get some Moderna stock in soon. It would be good timing if that dropped as Pfizer dropped back. My mother in law was given Pfizer so they must be confident of having at least 12 weeks worth of stock on it.
Click to expand...

My mum had the Pfizer vaccine as well, I do know they are seeing if they can mix and match the vaccines that work in the same way
 
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,233
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Yeah it’s just toxic. If vaccinations don’t lead to relaxing of measures then good luck convincing people to get them.
Click to expand...

Demanding that a date for the end of lockdown is "signed in blood" is interesting wording from those Tory MPs, for a decision that could cost hundreds/thousands of lives!

Couldn't agree more with the advice to take a break from the media every now and again btw.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,234
SBT said:
Demanding that a date for the end of lockdown is "signed in blood" is interesting wording from those Tory MPs, for a decision that could cost hundreds/thousands of lives!

Couldn't agree more with the advice to take a break from the media every now and again btw.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I just visit the vaccine update page once a day to see the new figures. We’re intelligent people here who don’t need hack journalists to analyse the numbers for us and put their spin on.

I won’t be watching the news or briefings until the ‘roadmap’ on the 22nd.
 
Reactions: shmmeee

Liquid Gold

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,235
SBT said:
Demanding that a date for the end of lockdown is "signed in blood" is interesting wording from those Tory MPs, for a decision that could cost hundreds/thousands of lives!

Couldn't agree more with the advice to take a break from the media every now and again btw.
Click to expand...
It's absolute madness to put an arbitrary date on something so changeable. I know the Tory party are just money minded machine men but you think they'd have learned from August/September when it was all "Get back to the office or we'll shift your job to India" then we had to shut the whole country down again. Such short sighted idiocy and I'd be furious if we opened up too soon only to lock down again. As I keep saying, let's just beat it this time.
 
Reactions: Sick Boy, bezzer, Sky_Blue_Dreamer and 5 others

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,236
Brighton Sky Blue said:
Yeah, I just visit the vaccine update page once a day to see the new figures. We’re intelligent people here who don’t need hack journalists to analyse the numbers for us and put their spin on.

I won’t be watching the news or briefings until the ‘roadmap’ on the 22nd.
Click to expand...
Quite a lot of the public don't realise the extent of information available in the public domain. I've got Peston muted on twitter as he posts so much utter drivel and it has such a wide reach
 
Reactions: Brylowes, Ian1779, shmmeee and 1 other person
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,237
Ccfcisparks said:

UK's Covid R rate now falls below 1 in EVERY region

Department of Health bosses declared another 15,144 coronavirus infections - down almost 21 per cent in a week, meaning 4million Britons have tested positive since the pandemic began.
www.dailymail.co.uk

This scaremongering is really really annoying me now. Quite clearly this article is written to be reactionary.
Click to expand...
End of 2021 is maybe not entirely stupid. Get everyone done.
 
Reactions: bezzer
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,238
Deleted member 5849 said:
End of 2021 is maybe not entirely stupid. Get everyone done.
Click to expand...

If few people are at risk of hospitalisation really why would this be necessary?
 
Reactions: Saddlebrains
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,239
Brighton Sky Blue said:
If few people are at risk of hospitalisation really why would this be necessary?
Click to expand...
Disease for some, mutation for others.

Does it hurt to wear a mask and talk to people from two metres plus away? It's not a big ask to finish it off and finish it down.
 
Reactions: Sick Boy
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,240
Got to say, my natural distance when talking to people is two metres plus, anyway...

Who wants their space invaded, regardless?
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,241
I hope masks stick around. So warm in the winter.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,242
Deleted member 5849 said:
Disease for some, mutation for others.

Does it hurt to wear a mask and talk to people from two metres plus away? It's not a big ask to finish it off and finish it down.
Click to expand...

I don’t enjoy either of them and want to teach properly. No thanks if neither I nor anyone I teach nor their parents is at risk of serious illness.
 

Liquid Gold

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,243
I think we should drop compulsory mask wearing once we've got on top of it but I hope we become more considerate and start wearing them when we feel under the weather so we're not passing on illnesses for no reason.
 
Reactions: shmmeee, Ian1779 and Sky_Blue_Dreamer
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,244
Brighton Sky Blue said:
I don’t enjoy either of them and want to teach properly. No thanks if neither I nor anyone I teach nor their parents is at risk of serious illness.
Click to expand...
Well I won't enjoy being told to fend for myself until I've had a vaccine, with everybody in my face all the time because they don't like the imposition.

We're not talking that long extra if it's autumn/ end of year.
 
Reactions: Ian1779
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Feb 12, 2021
  • #42,245
Deleted member 5849 said:
Well I won't enjoy being told to fend for myself until I've had a vaccine, with everybody in my face all the time because they don't like the imposition.

We're not talking that long extra if it's autumn/ end of year.
Click to expand...

You won’t be far behind Group 9. Sorry NW, will agree to disagree on this one
 
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