shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Understanding a term and quantifying it are two different things. Dangerous is a relative subjective term. As is “drastic” “costly” “good chance”.
So you don't understand what dangerous means?
If every time you crossed the road there was a good chance of getting hit by a car something drastic would have to change. That is dangerous. But you don't frequently get hit by a car but there is still a chance of it happening. So the choices are make drastic changes, use different methods like pedestrian crossings or accept the risk.
And this is where the cost comes into it. You wouldn't put pedestrian crossings on every road. You put them where they are needed the most. But it doesn't eliminate all risk.
Surely it will be never?Was thinking a while back I wonder when the uk will have its first day of no recorded cases, not going to be 2021 is it....
Would you expect a small company to pay 100k to take away a risk? Would you expect a worldwide company that makes billions a year to spend 100k to take away the same risk?Understanding a term and quantifying it are two different things. Dangerous is a relative subjective term. As is “drastic” “costly” “good chance”.
Surely it will be never?
COVID-19, once we get control of it, will sit alongside the flu etc. as something that we will have living with us going forward.
Vaccines will not get rid of COVID it will just stop the vast majority (even more so) of people dying from it.
We don't know which way this will go. As things stand it will always be around. But medical research is an amazing thing. Vaccinations have been produced in record time. An improvement will be looked for. Who would be surprised if something was found to eradicate the virus.Surely it will be never?
COVID-19, once we get control of it, will sit alongside the flu etc. as something that we will have living with us going forward.
Vaccines will not get rid of COVID it will just stop the vast majority (even more so) of people dying from it.
We don't know which way this will go. As things stand it will always be around. But medical research is an amazing thing. Vaccinations have been produced in record time. An improvement will be looked for. Who would be surprised if something was found to eradicate the virus.
And also unable to eradicate others. The difference this time is the amount of effort going into defeating it.We were able to globally eradicate diseases in the past, key word being global. The difficulty is not here but in countries that don’t have the resources or infrastructure to vaccinate their populations.
And also unable to eradicate others. The difference this time is the amount of effort going into defeating it.
If they can come up with something like a lifelong vaccination they will be able to eradicate it. If not then it will most probably stick around but only in the poor countries unless help is given.
Yes that is a way we might go.Smallpox went through a successful global vaccination programme to the point where no more vaccinations against it are needed because it only exists in a lab freezer. In COVID’s case as it is an ever mutating virus and the risk to a good chunk of the population is so low they will likely focus on keeping the vulnerable protected by responding to changes in the strain each year
Yes that is a way we might go.
Every disease/virus is different. Many viruses mutate to be able to pass in more easily. Most of the time they end up less dangerous but still kill about the sane amount as they get passed on more easily.
Immunity depends on many barriers. IIRC measles is one of the most contagious diseases. 95% need to be immune to keep it at bay. But others only need 75% to 80% immunity to stop them from spreading. If COVID only needs 80% immunity it would be relevantly easier to beat than if 95% immunity is needed.
And yes I know you are a science teacher who counts himself as a scientist. But would you like to call any of this wrong?
Why qoute myself when I have already said similar then?I wasn’t trying to say you were wrong just voicing why I think it’s unlikely we will get to a zero COVID situation but also why that shouldn’t be a concern. The countries that have kept the case load very low will likely still have to pursue vaccination programs if they wish to open up to the world also.
My mate was hospitalised couple of months ago but still had the vaccine as no guarantee of antibodiesWhy qoute myself when I have already said similar then?
It wouldn’t surprise me if 25% of the UK had already had the virus. It then comes down to immunisation and how long it helps for.
Can it be caught again?
Is it less dangerous the 2nd, 3rd,4th time?
Will a vaccine be found that gives a lifetime of immunity?
There are many variations of what could happen. The only ones that know what will happen are those who know nothing. An educated guess at best. A lot of it could come down to my favourite subject.....mathematics.
25% some sort of immunity from having the virus. 80% needed. That doesn't mean 55% vaccinations needed. Up to 25% of who you vaccinate would already have had the virus. So 1 in 4 might not do a lot. Only 41% of those vaccinated might benefit. But on the other hand most of those getting the vaccines have been shielding so should be nowhere near the 25% level. And to add to this those who have/should have been shielding were much more at risk from the virus so had a much lower chance of surviving the virus.
Why qoute myself when I have already said similar then?
It wouldn’t surprise me if 25% of the UK had already had the virus. It then comes down to immunisation and how long it helps for.
Can it be caught again?
Is it less dangerous the 2nd, 3rd,4th time?
Will a vaccine be found that gives a lifetime of immunity?
There are many variations of what could happen. The only ones that know what will happen are those who know nothing. An educated guess at best. A lot of it could come down to my favourite subject.....mathematics.
25% some sort of immunity from having the virus. 80% needed. That doesn't mean 55% vaccinations needed. Up to 25% of who you vaccinate would already have had the virus. So 1 in 4 might not do a lot. Only 41% of those vaccinated might benefit. But on the other hand most of those getting the vaccines have been shielding so should be nowhere near the 25% level. And to add to this those who have/should have been shielding were much more at risk from the virus so had a much lower chance of surviving the virus.
There are no guarantees with the vaccinations either. They have tested what they can in a short amount of time but the rest is to be seen still. What it looks like is you can get it again but it becomes less dangerous. You instead could become a spreader.My mate was hospitalised couple of months ago but still had the vaccine as no guarantee of antibodies
There are no guarantees with the vaccinations either. They have tested what they can in a short amount of time but the rest is to be seen still. What it looks like is you can get it again but it becomes less dangerous. You instead could become a spreader.
Which is what many of the experts are saying will probably happen. But others are saying we need to reach 80% immunisation or more to defeat it.In my view lifelong immunity is unlikely because of mutations that make it more akin to something like the common cold or the flu. That is all I meant.
So what are the long term projections?Vaccines have been tested to the usual standards.
How long since you have both had contact with the kids?Ex just called to say she’s tested positive. Don’t even know what protocol is here. I’ve not been in contact with her but the kids have. Nothing in the guidance I can see.
Ex just called to say she’s tested positive. Don’t even know what protocol is here. I’ve not been in contact with her but the kids have. Nothing in the guidance I can see.
Think your kids have to self isolate for 10 days (recently changed from 14)
If they develop symptoms, they go for a test.
Which is why I asked when they all had contact with each other. Might even have got it from the kids if they go to school.That's right. And if one of them does contract it I'd imagine Shmmeee will have to isolate depending on when he last saw them.
Suppose we should all be acting as if we’re positive. Kids would need to isolate you don’tEx just called to say she’s tested positive. Don’t even know what protocol is here. I’ve not been in contact with her but the kids have. Nothing in the guidance I can see.
Hope she’s okSuppose we should all be acting as if we’re positive. Kids would need to isolate you don’t
Don’t know about two household stuff with shared kids though
Like any vaccine thenSo what are the long term projections?
Exactly. No tests have been long term as they haven't been used long term or tested long term.
I read that early on in the pandemic that it was the best advice to everybody. Why the government didn't just adopt simple messaging like this I don't knowSuppose we should all be acting as if we’re positive. Kids would need to isolate you don’t
Don’t know about two household stuff with shared kids though
Which is what many of the experts are saying will probably happen. But others are saying we need to reach 80% immunisation or more to defeat it.
And then as I said earlier if they can come out with vaccines so quickly why won't they be able to come out with better in the future. And that is without at least one of the present vaccines doing the job. But I do err on the side that you say.
AgreedI read that early on in the pandemic that it was the best advice to everybody. Why the government didn't just adopt simple messaging like this I don't know
Sounds like it's possbiel could become more aggressive.
What countries adopted curfews and is it a realistic option this country should explore?
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Pretty sure if people followed current restrictions properly (and those that can WFH, actually do), numbers should start to decrease. Unfortunately the main word in that sentence is ‘if’ ! Only caveat is then minimising hospital spread which has been high
Looking at the movement stats for first three days of current lockdown v March lockdown both driving and walking are up c50% !
ps BSB and Astute (and others obviously) following your immunity chat above you might be interested in reading the article/interview in Sunday times with Neil Ferguson regarding immunity/vaccinations etc. Interesting
Which can be done pretty quickly now and is infinitely easier than researching a vaccine from scratch as the scientific community has managed this time.
The biggest misconception is the work on the vaccine started when the pandemic began.
And they had already developed a ChAdOx1 vaccine for Mers , which could train the immune system to spot the spike. The Oxford team were not starting from scratch.
"If this had been a completely unknown virus, then we'd have been in a very different position," Prof Pollard added.
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