Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (25 Viewers)

SBT · Dec 23, 2020

fernandopartridge said:
You've got to admit though that the government having Tier 4 places neighbouring Tier 2 ones is illogical. It's of course only coincidental that the Tier 2 places are basically all Tory constituencies.

Yes, clearly the government has completely botched the tiers from the start. But I don't think that necessarily means they're now "deliberately overplaying" the new variant. Nor do I think it's wise to undermine the new advice, just because you heard it from your friend's wife.

Skybluefaz · Dec 23, 2020

Sky Blue Pete said:
Cornwall going into tier 4 from midnight from tier 1

Loads of pirates have returned for Christmas and the aaarrrhhghhhh rate has gone through the roof

Absolute belter. Take a bow.

wingy · Dec 23, 2020

chiefdave said:
What exactly did he say? A lot of the experts have been saying more restrictions were needed before anyone knew about this knew strain. Did he specifically link the need to expand restrictions to the new strain?

SBT said:
Yes, clearly the government has completely botched the tiers from the start. But I don't think that necessarily means they're now "deliberately overplaying" the new variant. Nor do I think it's wise to undermine the new advice, just because you heard it from your friend's wife.

The figures around this are plucked from the air before the data has been thoroughly scrutinised.
The words and statements being used extremely dramatic.
On December 13th there were 1108 notified case's of this variant from a period spanning three months when several hundreds of thousands were recorded.
The 70% figure has already been revised down to 50% ,I wouldn't be surprised if it were revised again further down the line to something between 20 and 30% .
So what does 70% more transmissibility really mean .
Statistics can pretty much mean anything dependant on how you present them.
Does the initial presentation offer the Gov't cover for their failure?
The flagship policy of insisting children stay in school and are low risk has been exposed and 'Will' have to be shut for a period .

Edit:- dependant on how long you've lived you get a sense of when things are spun .
This feels like one , just like the Iraq dossier

SBT · Dec 23, 2020

wingy said:
Statistics can pretty much mean anything dependant on how you present them.
Does the initial presentation offer the Gov't cover for their failure?

It just sounds so far-fetched that this is a cover-up to improve the government's image. Is this really what people are taking away from all this? Sounds to me like the equivalent of telling the world that you've shat yourself to cover up that you farted earlier.

wingy · Dec 23, 2020

SBT said:
It just sounds so far-fetched that this is a cover-up to improve the government's image. Is this really what people are taking away from all this? Sounds to me like the equivalent of telling the world that you've shat yourself to cover up that you farted earlier.

What do poeple take from the quote 70% transmissibility , what does this mean in raw numbers of infections.
I can't square that circle to 1108 against several hundreds of thousands.

David O'Day · Dec 23, 2020

Deleted member 5849 said:
The whole discrepancy in their results was whether trial members had had half a dose for their first jab or not.

yeah that's why i thought it was 2 doses

David O'Day · Dec 23, 2020

wingy said:
What do poeple take from the quote 70% transmissibility , what does this mean in raw numbers of infections.
I can't square that circle to 1108 against several hundreds of thousands.

I know they aren't sure if it is accurate, upwards of 50% was a later figure.

Skybluefaz · Dec 23, 2020

Hancock "Just as we had set up a tier system that had the virus controlled, a mutant strain came along...." Barely started talking and already lying

Skybluefaz · Dec 23, 2020

Another new strain, come in from South Africa. More transmissable, further mutated. Triffic.

skybluesam66 · Dec 23, 2020

Skybluefaz said:
Another new strain, come in from South Africa. More transmissable, further mutated. Triffic.

FFS that is much worse than the one that was already much worse!!

wingy · Dec 23, 2020

So another New South African strain

Does this not emphasise enough that shutdown and international travel should have been the policy until eradication,or single figure transmission?

Skybluefaz · Dec 23, 2020

wingy said:
So another New South African strain

Does this not emphasise enough that shutdown and international travel should have been the policy until eradication,or single figure transmission?

Yes.

Brighton Sky Blue · Dec 23, 2020

wingy said:
So another New South African strain

Does this not emphasise enough that shutdown and international travel should have been the policy until eradication,or single figure transmission?

It should have been one of the first things we did and as an island nation would have been easy to implement

wingy · Dec 23, 2020

Omg Jenny is back n, I almost could have predicted it or required it like a dose of the shits.

chiefdave · Dec 23, 2020

wingy said:
Does this not emphasise enough that shutdown and international travel should have been the policy until eradication,or single figure transmission?

You do have to wonder how many times we have to import an issue from another country until at the very least we put a proper quarantine system in place. Our first major outbreak didn't come from Wuhan, it was a strain from Italy, then after a summer where we got numbers right down a strain from Spain became dominant and now we have one from South Africa.

Ian1779 · Dec 23, 2020

Northamptonshire moving to Tier 3

David O'Day · Dec 23, 2020

there's loads of new strains, that is what viruses do.

Also Bristol back into tier 3, that would wind me up

We seem to avoided tier 4 but really it wouldn't change anything for me

CCFCSteve · Dec 23, 2020

SBT said:
It just sounds so far-fetched that this is a cover-up to improve the government's image. Is this really what people are taking away from all this? Sounds to me like the equivalent of telling the world that you've shat yourself to cover up that you farted earlier.

On a miserable day that analogy did at least make me smile.

wingy said:
The figures around this are plucked from the air before the data has been thoroughly scrutinised.
The words and statements being used extremely dramatic.
On December 13th there were 1108 notified case's of this variant from a period spanning three months when several hundreds of thousands were recorded.
The 70% figure has already been revised down to 50% ,I wouldn't be surprised if it were revised again further down the line to something between 20 and 30% .
So what does 70% more transmissibility really mean .
Statistics can pretty much mean anything dependant on how you present them.
Does the initial presentation offer the Gov't cover for their failure?
The flagship policy of insisting children stay in school and are low risk has been exposed and 'Will' have to be shut for a period .

Edit:- dependant on how long you've lived you get a sense of when things are spun .
This feels like one , just like the Iraq dossier

I can’t argue with the scepticism Wingy (even with the scientists data - the 4K deaths per day on one of the second lockdown slides still pisses me off) but for some the government are damned if they do, damned if they don’t. This strain certainly sounds more transmissible (potentially by quite a bit), they reacted immediately on limited data (after apparently only being informed of the increased transmissibility on Friday - this ties in with scientists I’ve heard speaking from Imperial colleague and Nervtag). It was the right decision.

Yes, London with hindsight, some would argue foresight, should’ve ended up in T2 after national lockdown. It was a borderline call (one that bizarrely Gove argued against but Sadiq Khan lobbied for).

Unfortunately I think we’ve just had an extra dose of shit Covid luck just before Christmas. let’s hope 2021 starts off better for us all

wingy · Dec 23, 2020

Still pretending schools can function.

Ian1779 · Dec 23, 2020

wingy said:
Still pretending schools can function.

He’s fucking deluded. Kier will be along soon to back him up.

CCFCSteve · Dec 23, 2020

wingy said:
Still pretending schools can function.

If the strain is that contagious (and more transmissible in school aged kids than original) they’ve got at least consider moving schools in T4 (and probably T3) to online learning for January surely

chiefdave · Dec 23, 2020

SBT said:
It just sounds so far-fetched that this is a cover-up to improve the government's image. Is this really what people are taking away from all this? Sounds to me like the equivalent of telling the world that you've shat yourself to cover up that you farted earlier.

I think you can have a middle ground between its all a huge conspiracy and the government being completely honest with the public.

What the experts are suggesting now is not really any different to what they were suggesting before a new strain appeared, its not like overnight their advice has changed in any significant way.

Think there is room for debate over how much the increase is due to a new strain and how much is due to the fact that tier 1 & 2 have little impact. Again the issues with tier 1 & 2 are something the experts have been flagging for a while but have been ignored by the government.

Bizzarly Prof Ferguson said to a Commons Science and Technology Committee today that things should get better over Christmas as schools are and we are not far off a national lockdown. But then went on to say January could be an issue yet there seems to be little talk about keeping schools shut.

fernandopartridge · Dec 23, 2020

Skybluefaz said:
Another new strain, come in from South Africa. More transmissable, further mutated. Triffic.

I've never met a nice South African (strain)

Ian1779 · Dec 23, 2020

CCFCSteve said:
If the strain is that contagious (and more transmissible in school aged kids than original) they’ve got at least consider moving schools in T4 (and probably T3) to online learning for January surely

That would be the move of anyone with any semblance of brain function.

Nick · Dec 23, 2020

Are there many going from 2 to 4?

BodicoteSkyBlue · Dec 23, 2020

North Oxfordshire here, just gone from T2 to T4

Skybluefaz · Dec 23, 2020

fernandopartridge said:
I've never met a nice South African (strain)

I think Bob brought the strain back actually, but it was contracted from not a nice South African.

Nick · Dec 23, 2020

Makes you wonder about the original "Tiers" and how out of touch they were.

Unless of course it was in somebodies interests to put certain places in Tier 2.

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 · Dec 23, 2020

There are still flights landing in the UK from a whole string of destinations.

fernandopartridge · Dec 23, 2020

Skybluefaz said:
I think Bob brought the strain back actually, but it was contracted from not a nice South African.

chiefdave · Dec 23, 2020

CCFCSteve said:
for some the government are damned if they do, damned if they don’t.

For me the issue is that the government spout so much shit people have lost confidence that anything they come out with is the truth. Even in the gutter that is politics where covid is concerned it should have been the case that the government were truthful and upfront with the public from day one. We haven't seen anything like that.

Then you add in that the restrictions being put in place, ie: restricting what people do at Christmas and locking down immediately after Christmas (and lets face it even if not in name we're pretty much in a national lockdown from Boxing Day) are exactly what they experts have been calling for and saying will be required, which the government have been denying, and its easy to see how people can view this strain as a convenient way for the government to do what's needed without admitting they've made a mistake.

And of course the argument that if this new strain was really that dangerous and spreading at the rate claimed why are we announcing restrictions for 3 days times rather than putting them in place now.

CCFCSteve said:
If the strain is that contagious (and more transmissible in school aged kids than original) they’ve got at least consider moving schools in T4 (and probably T3) to online learning for January surely

We all know the weird obsession with keeping schools open is more as a daycare service so people can go to work rather than any concern about kids education but surely at this point you admit defeat. How many kids and staff will be off? You can't even pretend that things can continue as normal and the exams will go ahead as usual in the summer. And thats before you even consider the potential for spreading it around.

Skybluefaz · Dec 23, 2020

fernandopartridge said:

Ha ha, never seen/heard that before.

chiefdave · Dec 23, 2020

Nick said:
Are there many going from 2 to 4?

These are all the current tier 2 places and the changes that are coming in.

East of England

Cambridgeshire (moving to Tier 4 from Saturday 26 December)

the following local authorities in Essex: Colchester, Tendring and Uttlesford (moving to Tier 4 from Saturday 26 December)

Norfolk (moving to Tier 4 from Saturday 26 December)

Suffolk (moving to Tier 4 from Saturday 26 December)

East Midlands

Northamptonshire (moving to Tier 3 from Saturday 26 December)

Rutland

North West

Cumbria

Liverpool City Region

Warrington and Cheshire (moving to Tier 3 from Saturday 26 December)

South East

West Sussex, East Sussex (except Hastings and Rother) and Brighton and Hove (all moving to Tier 4 from Saturday 26 December)

Oxfordshire (moving to Tier 4 from Saturday 26 December)

Waverley (moving to Tier 4 from Saturday 26 December)

Southampton and Hampshire (all local authorities except Gosport, Havant and Portsmouth)

from Saturday 26 December, all Hampshire local authorities currently in Tier 2 will move to Tier 4, with the exception of the New Forest which will move to Tier 3

from Saturday 26 December, Southampton will move to Tier 4

South West

Bristol (moving to Tier 3 from Saturday 26 December)

North Somerset (moving to Tier 3 from Saturday 26 December)

Somerset (South Somerset, Somerset West and Taunton, Mendip and Sedgemoor) (moving to Tier 3 from Saturday 26 December)

Bath and North East Somerset

Dorset, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole

Devon, including Plymouth and Torbay

Gloucestershire (Cheltenham, Cotswold, Forest of Dean, Gloucester, Stroud and Tewkesbury) (moving to Tier 3 from Saturday 26 December)

Wiltshire and Swindon (Swindon moving to Tier 3 from Saturday 26 December)

West Midlands

Shropshire, and Telford and Wrekin

Worcestershire

Yorkshire

City of York and North Yorkshire

Ian1779 · Dec 23, 2020

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 said:
There are still flights landing in the UK from a whole string of destinations.

Utter madness isn’t it...

wingy · Dec 23, 2020

Well lets all hope that these latest mutations increasing it's transmissibility weaken its severity.

Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (25 Viewers)

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