Championship thread 25/26! (151 Viewers)

[MikeyMoo]

Southhampton go through to FA Cup SF, doesn't this mess Ipswich's game schedule even more?

 

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[Sky Blue Pete]

Southhampton go through to FA Cup SF, doesn't this mess Ipswich's game schedule even more?

Nope

 

[SwanLane]

You can look for reasons why each of the parachute teams struggled this year. But I don’t think it’s a coincidence personally. There are so many different managers, from totally different backgrounds employing mind bogglingly varied tactics, formations and styles of play - even compared with 2 years ago. If you switch off, don’t adapt and don’t show enough flexibility, you’re screwed, Many teams have been streaky or struggled for consistency.

We’ve been lucky but if you talk to fans of quite a few clubs, they’ve never known injury crises like those they’ve experienced this season.

All of this looks more like a super competitive, gruelling division to me. What’s the evidence cited by the people banging on about it being a crap division this year? I don’t get it.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

When you said "We’re projected to hit 95-96 points so that’s why the Opta computers have us at 100% likelihood of promotion", I assumed you were explaining their methodology. I didn't realise you were just guessing yourself!

I'm not disputing what a good side we are, or suggesting we won't get the points. It's the fact that nobody can explain this duff figure of 100.00%.

Edit: just seen Mark82's post above with a link. Suggests that if we played out the season for the next 10,000 years (through multiple ice ages and asteroids strikes) we'd never lose the last 6 games and see a couple of the others overtake us. Fair enough, but they've still come up with a factually incorrect number.

"The main features that power the predictions are:
- The quality of the teams based on their historic performance over the last four years (?!)
- The form of the teams based on their recent performance over the last year".....

My projection is a broad assumption that we’ll continue to hit our averages for the season which is 2.4 ppg at home, 1.75 ppg away. That gives us 12.45 points from our remaining games.

@mark82’s explanation was great, because I didn’t understand how Opta got to 100% myself. In every simulation, the odds of Millwall and Ipswich* winning all their remaining games whilst we fail to hit 8 points is just insane. We’re a 2.4 ppg team at home with Wednesday & Pompey left, that takes us to 89 alone.

Even during our wobble, I was happy to assume we’ll still finish 2nd because our home form is just that much better than everyone else.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

He's obviously been overhyped by the media and Boro fans - he's 100% taken them backwards as well.

The two games that have defined his tenure to date have been against us and Millwall. Both 6 pointers lost and they will go into the game v Ipswich away needing a win to stay in the race for 2nd rather than extending a lead.

Lose all 3 of those games and questions will be asked. They haven’t recovered since we battered them and Hellberg’s comments get odder by the day.

It’s not even the first time this season, they lost 3 out of 4 games around Xmas to NY and given our away woes, ought to have overtaken us sooner (we didn’t win away for nearly 3 months). To go 5 home games without a win against bottom half teams (excluding Millwall) is a bottle job. By contrast, we’ve been fantastic at home.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

You can look for reasons why each of the parachute teams struggled this year. But I don’t think it’s a coincidence personally. There are so many different managers, from totally different backgrounds employing mind bogglingly varied tactics, formations and styles of play - even compared with 2 years ago. If you switch off, don’t adapt and don’t show enough flexibility, you’re screwed, Many teams have been streaky or struggled for consistency.

We’ve been lucky but if you talk to fans of quite a few clubs, they’ve never known injury crises like those they’ve experienced this season.

All of this looks more like a super competitive, gruelling division to me. What’s the evidence cited by the people banging on about it being a crap division this year? I don’t get it.

It’s a low-resolution take imo because people need an explanation as how we’re dominating and we’re followed up by Millwall and Boro. If you swap our position and Ipswich’s, no one bats an eyelid and says anything about the strength of the league.

Southampton appointing Will Still cost them and they probably would be pushing 2nd given that no one seemingly wants 2nd place bar Millwall. That too influences the perception of the league’s strength. It’s been a dogfight for the teams chasing us and the cliche of there being no easy games is truer this year compared to most because the promoted teams are comparatively much stronger.

 

[Lamps]

You can look for reasons why each of the parachute teams struggled this year. But I don’t think it’s a coincidence personally. There are so many different managers, from totally different backgrounds employing mind bogglingly varied tactics, formations and styles of play - even compared with 2 years ago. If you switch off, don’t adapt and don’t show enough flexibility, you’re screwed, Many teams have been streaky or struggled for consistency.

We’ve been lucky but if you talk to fans of quite a few clubs, they’ve never known injury crises like those they’ve experienced this season.

All of this looks more like a super competitive, gruelling division to me. What’s the evidence cited by the people banging on about it being a crap division this year? I don’t get it.

The only surprise about the parachute teams this season is Ipswich not being in 1st or at least not in a battle for 1st. We had a debate on if Will Still had the experience for the Championship. Leicester were so skint they brought in loans with only League 1 experience and players on an absolute fortune just going through the motions and with a point deduction on the way. Once Southampton got a decent manager he sorted out the side and now they're on another level. They've now beat Fulham who were in 8th and Arsenal who are flying at the top of the Prem. 12 wins 3 draws from 15 games. Thanks Will Still

It's a great Championship this season. Nearly anyone can beat anyone. I see part of the problem of lots of people saying Lampard is a poor manager and are still looking for something to back it up. Coventry City going to win the Championship? Must be poor this season, then they go on about how good they are yet they're below us

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

The only surprise about the parachute teams this season is Ipswich not being in 1st or at least not in a battle for 1st. We had a debate on if Will Still had the experience for the Championship. Leicester were so skint they brought in loans with only League 1 experience and players on an absolute fortune just going through the motions and with a point deduction on the way. Once Southampton got a decent manager he sorted out the side and now they're on another level. They've now beat Fulham who were in 8th and Arsenal who are flying at the top of the Prem. 12 wins 3 draws from 15 games. Thanks Will Still

It's a great Championship this season. Nearly anyone can beat anyone. I see part of the problem of lots of people saying Lampard is a poor manager and are still looking for something to back it up. Coventry City going to win the Championship? Must be poor this season, then they go on about how good they are yet they're below us

The general take on Lampard is he inherited a mark robins squad - which is true, but the difference is, Lampard walked the walk with said squad. We weren’t at the time of Robins’ sacking who’s known as one of the best managers in the division… so Lampard must be doing something right

 

[Lamps]

The general take on Lampard is he inherited a mark robins squad - which is true, but the difference is, Lampard walked the walk with said squad. We weren’t at the time of Robins’ sacking who’s known as one of the best managers in the division… so Lampard must be doing something right

Of course Lampard is doing the vast majority correct. But let's not pretend that Ipswich and Southampton don't have very good squads and if Will Still wasn't manager at the start of the season we wouldn't have Southampton at least breathing right down our necks. He got the sack after 13 games with just 2 wins. They were in 21st place. We were already 16 points and 30 goals ahead of them. By the time their new manager was in place we were flying and he had a lot to sort out. By then we were 19 points ahead of them.

The only reason they haven't been catching us up is our 8 wins in 9 games.

 

[Ipad Boro]

The only surprise about the parachute teams this season is Ipswich not being in 1st or at least not in a battle for 1st. We had a debate on if Will Still had the experience for the Championship. Leicester were so skint they brought in loans with only League 1 experience and players on an absolute fortune just going through the motions and with a point deduction on the way. Once Southampton got a decent manager he sorted out the side and now they're on another level. They've now beat Fulham who were in 8th and Arsenal who are flying at the top of the Prem. 12 wins 3 draws from 15 games. Thanks Will Still

It's a great Championship this season. Nearly anyone can beat anyone. I see part of the problem of lots of people saying Lampard is a poor manager and are still looking for something to back it up. Coventry City going to win the Championship? Must be poor this season, then they go on about how good they are yet they're below us

This.

People say it's a poor championship this year simply because the sides in 1st-5th barring Ipswich aren't sides who people thought should be in the places they are or anywhere near. If they pushed every side barring Ipswich in that top 5 down 4 places so it was Cov 5th, Millwall 6th, Boro 7th, Hull 8th, then no one would be batting the slightest eyelid.

Granted it's helped, as was said, by Leicester having a points deduction, off field problems and no team spirit, Will Still's incompetence and of course the ludicrous appointment of Selles at the Blades, and a few small other things such as Sheff Wed seemingly handing 6 points vouchers out to most sides in the league as another little leveller (Though Typical Boro would have us get a result against Ipswich right before dropping points against them) but every side in the top 6 is where it deserves to be.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

This.

People say it's a poor championship this year simply because the sides in 1st-5th barring Ipswich aren't sides who people thought should be in the places they are or anywhere near. If they pushed every side barring Ipswich in that top 5 down 4 places so it was Cov 5th, Millwall 6th, Boro 7th, Hull 8th, then no one would be batting the slightest eyelid.

Granted it's helped, as was said, by Leicester having a points deduction, off field problems and no team spirit, Will Still's incompetence and of course the ludicrous appointment of Selles at the Blades, and a few small other things such as Sheff Wed seemingly handing 6 points vouchers out to most sides in the league as another little leveller (Though Typical Boro would have us get a result against Ipswich right before dropping points against them) but every side in the top 6 is where it deserves to be.

After 40 games the table doesn’t really lie.

 

[Mcbean]

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

What’s the evidence cited by the people banging on about it being a crap division this year? I don’t get it.

They don't like it that the likes of us and Millwall are at the top. Simple as that.

 

[SkyBlue_Bear83]

View attachment 50414

Play Tuesday, 2 days rest and play Friday.

No different to play Saturday, 2 days rest and play Tuesday

 

[CraigSBA]

He's obviously been overhyped by the media and Boro fans - he's 100% taken them backwards as well.

Obviously now they are doing worse nobody talks about adi viveash anymore

Its easy to forget but boro have had 2 really poor spells of form this season

 

[SafeAsMilk]

Saying if you had a different manager City wouldn’t be winning league is bizarre … what if we had prime Messi and also Stanley Matthews AI regenerated for modern football … things is we didn’t because it’s all counterfactual

we are top of league by a mile because we are best team over the season by a mile. That’s how leagues work. No if if ifs

if the dog hadn’t stopped for a shit he would have caught the rabbit….

 

[Lamps]

They don't like it that the likes of us and Millwall are at the top. Simple as that.

Us 1st, Millwall 2nd, Hull 5th and Hollywood in 6th 19 points behind us with 6 to go. There's a lot of pundits with egg on their face and disgruntled supporters that expected more. All they have left is hurtful words that make them look stupid.

We could become the Championship champions after another 2 games, but I wouldn't be too unhappy for Millwall to win their next 2 games also. They won't be catching us but the race for 2nd is on. Would love it to be us and Millwall finish top 2.

 

[Sick Boy]

Saying if you had a different manager City wouldn’t be winning league is bizarre … what if we had prime Messi and also Stanley Matthews AI regenerated for modern football … things is we didn’t because it’s all counterfactual

we are top of league by a mile because we are best team over the season by a mile. That’s how leagues work. No if if ifs

if the dog hadn’t stopped for a shit he would have caught the rabbit….

Lampard has been key to us winning the league, ffs.

 

[jordan210]

Norwich, Birmingham, Swansea triple 73-1 odds you heard it hear first !

 

[Lamps]

Lampard has been key to us winning the league, ffs.

Don't be silly. Robins has done it using his psychic powers

 

[wingy]

Saying if you had a different manager City wouldn’t be winning league is bizarre … what if we had prime Messi and also Stanley Matthews AI regenerated for modern football … things is we didn’t because it’s all counterfactual

we are top of league by a mile because we are best team over the season by a mile. That’s how leagues work. No if if ifs

if the dog hadn’t stopped for a shit he would have caught the rabbit….

Yeah but it's Trumps method derangement syndrome at play.

 

[Sick Boy]

Don't be silly. Robins has done it using his psychic powers

It takes me back to the days when the experts claimed that the manager had no impact on a team for one of the desperate reasons to keep Thorn on as manager.

 

[covcity4life]

Regarding Hellberg I increasingly think he’s a poor manager.

It’s one thing getting players to play pretty football but it counts for nothing if that doesn’t translate to results. Baring his purple patch the results have been awful and he’s taken them backwards imo.

You thought lampard was a poor manager too though?

 

[covcity4life]

He's obviously been overhyped by the media and Boro fans - he's 100% taken them backwards as well.

People said lampard had taken us backwards when he first joined remember? All passing no end product etc

Give the guy a full season before piling on I say. He's shown enough to make me personally think he's decent and I was right about Kompany and Enzo....

 

[SafeAsMilk]

At moment Hellborg can definitely set his team up well but hasn’t got the tactical nouce in game … so it’s fine if you steamroll shit teams but a problem otherwise….both Lampard and Neal have done him like a kipper tactically and he just stands on sideline shitting himself… now, I think we have seen Frank improve in game over the last year as well, but he also had a much more competent starting position … so all not lost for wiggy, however, if Boro don’t get up this season I can’t see them doing next either with the money teams in the league …

 

[wingy]

At moment Hellborg can definitely set his team up well but hasn’t got the tactical nouce in game … so it’s fine if you steamroll shit teams but a problem otherwise….both Lampard and Neal have done him like a kipper tactically and he just stands on sideline shitting himself… now, I think we have seen Frank improve in game over the last year as well, but he also had a much more competent starting position … so all not lost for wiggy, however, if Boro don’t get up this season I can’t see them doing next either with the money teams in the league …

He does have a trusty Lieutenant though,is he taking the advice, I personally doubt it.

 

[clint van damme]

It takes me back to the days when the experts claimed that the manager had no impact on a team for one of the desperate reasons to keep Thorn on as manager.

Same as people claiming our success under Robins was actually down to Viveash.

 

[Ipad Boro]

At moment Hellborg can definitely set his team up well but hasn’t got the tactical nouce in game … so it’s fine if you steamroll shit teams but a problem otherwise….both Lampard and Neal have done him like a kipper tactically and he just stands on sideline shitting himself… now, I think we have seen Frank improve in game over the last year as well, but he also had a much more competent starting position … so all not lost for wiggy, however, if Boro don’t get up this season I can’t see them doing next either with the money teams in the league …

He's made mistakes, but tbf he's not doing too badly for a guy who played just a handful of games as a player at Swedish lower league level, and for his first half season managing in English football.

He's also being let down by finishing ability massively.

 

[SafeAsMilk]

Yeah I agree… he may well adapt and learn andbe better next season… has not been helped by media and fan hyperbole at all though …

 

[Grendel]

He's made mistakes, but tbf he's not doing too badly for a guy who played just a handful of games as a player at Swedish lower league level, and for his first half season managing in English football.

He's also being let down by finishing ability massively.

If the club fails to get promoted I suspect he will be gone pretty quickly next season - he’s an odd choice as manager

 

[CraigSBA]

It takes me back to the days when the experts claimed that the manager had no impact on a team for one of the desperate reasons to keep Thorn on as manager.

Its basically like saying man utd would have won 13 premier league titles with any other manager but fergie .. its nonsense

 

[CraigSBA]

If the club fails to get promoted I suspect he will be gone pretty quickly next season - he’s an odd choice as manager

Hes the swedish russell martin , might work for them might not

Hes on about 1.7 ppg which over the season equals playoffs

 

[Calista]

My projection is a broad assumption that we’ll continue to hit our averages for the season which is 2.4 ppg at home, 1.75 ppg away. That gives us 12.45 points from our remaining games.

Basically the same sort of reasoned assumptions as Opta then, but without the computers.

They assume that past numbers will dictate the future, with no allowance for the variable performance of humans under pressure or the luck of the bounce. So no matter how many times they run the model they aren't going to predict the unexpected things that (thank goodness) happen in sport all the time.

Hence 99.94% success forecasted when a team has a lead of 8 points with 21 still to play for. Things will continue as they are.

 

[Calista]

He's made mistakes, but tbf he's not doing too badly for a guy who played just a handful of games as a player at Swedish lower league level, and for his first half season managing in English football.

He's also being let down by finishing ability massively.

The chances you missed the other day were beyond belief!

 

[Ipad Boro]

If the club fails to get promoted I suspect he will be gone pretty quickly next season - he’s an odd choice as manager

Gibson is known for taking chances with managers tbf. It's not Hellberg's first rodeo, but it IS a massive shift for him in playing style of opponents and culture and he's new to it.

Our list of giving managers their first job in permanent management is actually quite a longer one than usual in Gibbo's tenure; Robson, McClaren, Southgate, Woodgate, Karanka, Carrick. With the other established experienced options of Lawrence, Todd, Strachan, Mowbray, Monk, Pulis, Warwick, Wilder, Todd actually doing worse on average than the ones in the first list.

In terms of weighing up managerial experience, the closest to Hellberg's experience level we had was probably Rioch, but he'd played in England beforehand.

Gibson does like to go for managers who have a playing style that is exciting to watch more often, as opposed to a Steady Eddie Pulis, or even a Karanka, but he's a fan first and foremost who grew up on Park End estate watching us, so he reasons that's usually what the fans want too.