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CCFC Promotion, computer prediction (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter covhead1
  • Start date Mar 8, 2023
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covhead1

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #1
Promotion this season???


Computer says NO!

Coventry City's final Championship position according to super computer

Coventry City news from CoventryLive as we look at where the Sky Blues could finish this season according to a super computer
www.coventrytelegraph.net
 
Reactions: Brylowes, Sky Blue Pete and SkyBlueMatt
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HuckerbyDublinWhelan

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #2
I think what’s inevitably going to kill us is lack of squad depth

Howley and Eccles aren’t going to get us over the line.
 
Reactions: vow, shepardo01, Otis and 1 other person

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #3
7% chance of promotion in march wow!!
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #4
Sky Blue Pete said:
7% chance of promotion in march wow!!
Click to expand...
I'd take that!! Those are good odds.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete
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Speedie's Head

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #5
Another way to look at this - we only need 3 more points than expected. We could go a large way to that over the next two games...
 
Reactions: SkyBlueSam01

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #6
Speedie's Head said:
Another way to look at this - we only need 3 more points than expected. We could go a large way do that over the next two games...
Click to expand...
Would think in the model we are looking to win these two
 

edgy

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #7
Sky Blue Pete said:
7% chance of promotion in march wow!!
Click to expand...

I think a 27% chance of making the playoffs is something to focus on rather than 7% to win promotion. Once your in the play-offs, it's anyone's for the taking.
 
Reactions: Spurs 'City Away Kit' Kit, CCFCSteve, vow and 5 others
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Speedie's Head

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #8
Sky Blue Pete said:
Would think in the model we are looking to win these two
Click to expand...

It's got us well under two points per game.

10th place on 68pts is 16 more points than now (52 pts) in 11 games, that is only 1 1/2 pts per game. Two wins gets us on target.

I doubt that 71 points will be enough for 6th place but that's not the discussion just now.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

Robinshio

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #9
i think any model has us losing to middlesbrough
if we get to the last game and still in with a fighting chance, anything can happen in a 1 off
 
E

EalingSB

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #10
The analysts at Twenty First Group give us a 20% chance of making the play-offs (before the West Brom game last night) - up from 9% before the weekend win at Huddersfield.

 
Reactions: SkyBlueSam01 and edgy

shepardo01

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #11
HuckerbyDublinWhelan said:
I think what’s inevitably going to kill us is lack of squad depth

Howley and Eccles aren’t going to get us over the line.
Click to expand...
That is what makes the position we have got ourselves into even more frustrating.....
 
Reactions: Sick Boy, HuckerbyDublinWhelan and Sky Blue Pete

SleepyGinger

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #12
Annoyingly I could see us finishing the season really strongly and getting good points total but still missing out. Everyone above us and around us are on good form, Watford will fancy it now with Wilder, Hope I’m wrong.
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #13
SleepyGinger said:
Annoyingly I could see us finishing the season really strongly and getting good points total but still missing out. Everyone above us and around us are on good form, Watford will fancy it now with Wilder, Hope I’m wrong.
Click to expand...
The teams above us will be playing each other lots of times. We only have to play those above us a few times. Things can move very quickly.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Harry H

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #14
I like that 0% of relegation
 
Reactions: Astute and Covkid1968#

Robinshio

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #15
Astute said:
The teams above us will be playing each other lots of times. We only have to play those above us a few times. Things can move very quickly.
Click to expand...
i think there are several teams around us with easy run ins, watford were one of those
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete
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PVA

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #16
HuckerbyDublinWhelan said:
I think what’s inevitably going to kill us is lack of squad depth

Howley and Eccles aren’t going to get us over the line.
Click to expand...

Eccles has been really good.

The issue is all 3 of our AMs out injured at once.
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete and Astute
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HuckerbyDublinWhelan

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #17
PVA said:
Eccles has been really good.

The issue is all 3 of our AMs out injured at once.
Click to expand...
He has been, it’s not a sleight on him, I see him more as a squad player not a key first teamer.

That is what I was saying - were having to play Eccles as a full starter instead of our first and second choice midfield. Our depth is woeful
 
Reactions: shepardo01

Robinshio

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #18
HuckerbyDublinWhelan said:
He has been, it’s not a sleight on him, I see him more as a squad player not a key first teamer.

That is what I was saying - were having to play Eccles as a full starter instead of our first and second choice midfield. Our depth is woeful
Click to expand...
not many clubs can cope with having 3 players in the same position injured
how big a squad should we carry
we have issues with squad depth in other positions but not AM
 

blunted

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #19
I think people underestimate Eccles. He has been getting better all season after a bad start at Sunderland and injury problems. Always happy when he is on the team sheet.
 
Reactions: kg82, Astute, WestEndAgro and 1 other person

eastwoodsdustman

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #20
After their first game in the middle together Hamer has been far more influential in games as he knows Eccles is solid enough behind him and allows him to play further up the pitch.
its no coincidence that Hamers been at his peak since Eccles has gone In alongside him in midfield and thats a massive compliment to Eccles.
 
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HuckerbyDublinWhelan

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #21
Robinshio said:
not many clubs can cope with having 3 players in the same position injured
how big a squad should we carry
we have issues with squad depth in other positions but not AM
Click to expand...
We have a good starting 11, a very good plan A. The rest of the league have enough players to have a plan B & C.

we are unlucky in terms of losing our AMs but we just don’t have the depth. Most teams wouldn’t have to dip into the Howleys of their squad to become starting 11 players for the last 10 games.

again - they’re good young players, but being at the stage to rely on them is too much to expect from them
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #22
HuckerbyDublinWhelan said:
He has been, it’s not a sleight on him, I see him more as a squad player not a key first teamer.

That is what I was saying - were having to play Eccles as a full starter instead of our first and second choice midfield. Our depth is woeful
Click to expand...
And he has proven to be very capable of covering when needed. Doesn't that show you we have decent cover in his position?

Howley looked decent on his 1st team debut start in the league. Playing against knackered and those carrying knocks will help. After a few games he will get more up to speed.

Just about every club has injuries at this stage to the season. Some are a lot worse off than us. Look at Sunderland. No fit striker for the rest of the season. Were near the top of the table but now in free fall. Oh dear.
 
R

robbiethemole

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #23
we only play Blackbum and Boro above us, not too difficult
 
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HuckerbyDublinWhelan

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #24
Astute said:
And he has proven to be very capable of covering when needed. Doesn't that show you we have decent cover in his position?

Howley looked decent on his 1st team debut start in the league. Playing against knackered and those carrying knocks will help. After a few games he will get more up to speed.

Just about every club has injuries at this stage to the season. Some are a lot worse off than us. Look at Sunderland. No fit striker for the rest of the season. Were near the top of the table but now in free fall. Oh dear.
Click to expand...
Again - I like them, they’re good solid young players. But in the business end we’re competing against West Brom, Norwich and Watford who have bigger depth due to the resources. Then you’ve got Milwall who seem to be a very hard working team. That’s all competing for one spot - given Blackburn and Luton are somewhat out of our reach with 11games to go.

put it this way - with the clubs we’re competing with, where would Eccles and Howley fit in?
 

COVKIDSNEVERQUIT

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #25
robbiethemole said:
we only play Blackbum and Boro above us, not too difficult
Click to expand...


6 points.
 
Reactions: Astute, standupforcity, Sky Blue Pete and 1 other person
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tomreagan84

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #26
Bet Victor: 16/1 for Coventry promotion.

We’ll probably fall short, but get on it anyway.
 
Reactions: Astute and Sky Blue Pete

shepardo01

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #27
robbiethemole said:
we only play Blackbum and Boro above us, not too difficult
Click to expand...
Watford can beat anybody - and with a new manager will be a very difficult opponent.
QPR have a new manager and a good squad that were top of the table earlier in the season.
Hull, are difficult to beat, don't concede many goals and with a win would be breathing down our necks points wise.
Blackpool, on Saturday were the only team to stop Burnley from scoring since the World cup.

With the current midfield they will all be VERY challenging games.....
As I've said on another post, if we had Sheaf/Palmer/Allen all available and fit, I'd be excited about our chances going into the back end of the season.....
Instead I'm feeling frustrated about those injuries and the lesser quality starting 11 (and then paper thin squad) that we find ourselves with.....
 

JulianDarbyFTW

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #28
The 'supercomputer' is just the fivethirtyeight website (Championship Predictions)

It predicts each and every week, and has done for a few years. And the telegraph run a poncy article like this every year. It's annoying, because it's more of an algorithm than some footballing Deep Blue (chess reference for da kidz there).

The biggest plus point of the website is that you can select by date, so you can go back to any point in the season. Obviously, the further into the season the more accurate, but it's fun to see how it changes. For example, first week of September we were predicted to be 4th bottom, which wasn't far off from my own expectations at that point!
 

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2023
  • #29
PVA said:
Eccles has been really good.

The issue is all 3 of our AMs out injured at once.
Click to expand...
And improving
 
S

SonofErnie

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 9, 2023
  • #30
HuckerbyDublinWhelan said:
We have a good starting 11, a very good plan A. The rest of the league have enough players to have a plan B & C.

we are unlucky in terms of losing our AMs but we just don’t have the depth. Most teams wouldn’t have to dip into the Howleys of their squad to become starting 11 players for the last 10 games.

again - they’re good young players, but being at the stage to rely on them is too much to expect from them
Click to expand...
Surely we were on Plan C last Saturday?
 
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Robinshio

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 9, 2023
  • #31
SonofErnie said:
Surely we were on Plan C last Saturday?
Click to expand...
probably plan D and got our biggest away win in years
We are now totally reliant on not getting an injury to Fadz/ Hamer/ Gyokeres
hope that we will have Sheaf back soon
 
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HuckerbyDublinWhelan

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 9, 2023
  • #32
SonofErnie said:
Surely we were on Plan C last Saturday?
Click to expand...
I think we’re in the throw anything at it and hope it sticks stage.
 

Sky Blue Harry H

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 9, 2023
  • #33
HuckerbyDublinWhelan said:
Our depth is woeful
Click to expand...

O'Hare, Sheaf, Palmer, (to a lesser extent Kelly) Barely any team in this division cold cope with those injuries at the same time . How many midfielders do you expect a Championship squad to have? With that in mind, our abject depth has managed to see us unbeaten in 6. To have quality depth in a squad is unrealistic at this level unless you have just come down from the PL. The only exception to that is if you have a number of home grown players who happen to come through at the same time, and haven't blown the budget out of the water.
 
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HuckerbyDublinWhelan

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 9, 2023
  • #34
Sky Blue Harry H said:
O'Hare, Sheaf, Palmer, (to a lesser extent Kelly) Barely any team in this division cold cope with those injuries at the same time . How many midfielders do you expect a Championship squad to have? With that in mind, our abject depth has managed to see us unbeaten in 6. To have quality depth in a squad is unrealistic at this level unless you have just come down from the PL. The only exception to that is if you have a number of home grown players who happen to come through at the same time, and haven't blown the budget out of the water.
Click to expand...
If you’d have read my entire points youd realise you’ve literally said what I have.

we’re competing against Watford, Norwich and West Brom for 1 spot. Our depth compared to them is woeful.

I do not think we will get top 6 because our squad depth just isn’t there. The 3 teams mentioned could absorb losses of O’Hare, Sheaf and Palmer because they have similar quality players in reserve. We have youth kids who realistically should be left to develop
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Harry H
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nunchuckas

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 9, 2023
  • #35
Robinshio said:
i think any model has us losing to middlesbrough
if we get to the last game and still in with a fighting chance, anything can happen in a 1 off
Click to expand...
By the time we play Boro on the last game, there's a very good chance their fate will be sealed, and they'll be resting players and preparing for the Playoffs. I'd fancy our chances in this scenario if we need a result.

Same theory applies to the Reading and Brum games, they will probably be dead rubber games for them at that point and will be on 'on the beach'.

Even as far back as QPR, they might be pretty much done and dusted by then f they're not dragged into the relegation mix. Blackburn are likely to still have something to play for though.

So get to the last 3 still in the mix and it's definitely on IMO.
 
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