CCFC Promotion, computer prediction (1 Viewer)

[covhead1]

Promotion this season???


Computer says NO!

Coventry City's final Championship position according to super computer

Coventry City news from CoventryLive as we look at where the Sky Blues could finish this season according to a super computer

www.coventrytelegraph.net

 

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[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

I think what’s inevitably going to kill us is lack of squad depth

Howley and Eccles aren’t going to get us over the line.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

7% chance of promotion in march wow!!

 

[Otis]

7% chance of promotion in march wow!!

I'd take that!! Those are good odds.

 

[Speedie's Head]

Another way to look at this - we only need 3 more points than expected. We could go a large way to that over the next two games...

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Another way to look at this - we only need 3 more points than expected. We could go a large way do that over the next two games...

Would think in the model we are looking to win these two

 

[edgy]

7% chance of promotion in march wow!!

I think a 27% chance of making the playoffs is something to focus on rather than 7% to win promotion. Once your in the play-offs, it's anyone's for the taking.

 

[Speedie's Head]

Would think in the model we are looking to win these two

It's got us well under two points per game.

10th place on 68pts is 16 more points than now (52 pts) in 11 games, that is only 1 1/2 pts per game. Two wins gets us on target.

I doubt that 71 points will be enough for 6th place but that's not the discussion just now.

 

[Robinshio]

i think any model has us losing to middlesbrough
if we get to the last game and still in with a fighting chance, anything can happen in a 1 off

 

[EalingSB]

The analysts at Twenty First Group give us a 20% chance of making the play-offs (before the West Brom game last night) - up from 9% before the weekend win at Huddersfield.

 

[shepardo01]

I think what’s inevitably going to kill us is lack of squad depth

Howley and Eccles aren’t going to get us over the line.

That is what makes the position we have got ourselves into even more frustrating.....

 

[SleepyGinger]

Annoyingly I could see us finishing the season really strongly and getting good points total but still missing out. Everyone above us and around us are on good form, Watford will fancy it now with Wilder, Hope I’m wrong.

 

[Astute]

Annoyingly I could see us finishing the season really strongly and getting good points total but still missing out. Everyone above us and around us are on good form, Watford will fancy it now with Wilder, Hope I’m wrong.

The teams above us will be playing each other lots of times. We only have to play those above us a few times. Things can move very quickly.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I like that 0% of relegation

 

[Robinshio]

The teams above us will be playing each other lots of times. We only have to play those above us a few times. Things can move very quickly.

i think there are several teams around us with easy run ins, watford were one of those

 

[PVA]

I think what’s inevitably going to kill us is lack of squad depth

Howley and Eccles aren’t going to get us over the line.

Eccles has been really good.

The issue is all 3 of our AMs out injured at once.

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

Eccles has been really good.

The issue is all 3 of our AMs out injured at once.

He has been, it’s not a sleight on him, I see him more as a squad player not a key first teamer.

That is what I was saying - were having to play Eccles as a full starter instead of our first and second choice midfield. Our depth is woeful

 

[Robinshio]

He has been, it’s not a sleight on him, I see him more as a squad player not a key first teamer.

That is what I was saying - were having to play Eccles as a full starter instead of our first and second choice midfield. Our depth is woeful

not many clubs can cope with having 3 players in the same position injured
how big a squad should we carry
we have issues with squad depth in other positions but not AM

 

[blunted]

I think people underestimate Eccles. He has been getting better all season after a bad start at Sunderland and injury problems. Always happy when he is on the team sheet.

 

[eastwoodsdustman]

After their first game in the middle together Hamer has been far more influential in games as he knows Eccles is solid enough behind him and allows him to play further up the pitch.
its no coincidence that Hamers been at his peak since Eccles has gone In alongside him in midfield and thats a massive compliment to Eccles.

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

not many clubs can cope with having 3 players in the same position injured
how big a squad should we carry
we have issues with squad depth in other positions but not AM

We have a good starting 11, a very good plan A. The rest of the league have enough players to have a plan B & C.

we are unlucky in terms of losing our AMs but we just don’t have the depth. Most teams wouldn’t have to dip into the Howleys of their squad to become starting 11 players for the last 10 games.

again - they’re good young players, but being at the stage to rely on them is too much to expect from them

 

[Astute]

He has been, it’s not a sleight on him, I see him more as a squad player not a key first teamer.

That is what I was saying - were having to play Eccles as a full starter instead of our first and second choice midfield. Our depth is woeful

And he has proven to be very capable of covering when needed. Doesn't that show you we have decent cover in his position?

Howley looked decent on his 1st team debut start in the league. Playing against knackered and those carrying knocks will help. After a few games he will get more up to speed.

Just about every club has injuries at this stage to the season. Some are a lot worse off than us. Look at Sunderland. No fit striker for the rest of the season. Were near the top of the table but now in free fall. Oh dear.

 

[robbiethemole]

we only play Blackbum and Boro above us, not too difficult

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

And he has proven to be very capable of covering when needed. Doesn't that show you we have decent cover in his position?

Howley looked decent on his 1st team debut start in the league. Playing against knackered and those carrying knocks will help. After a few games he will get more up to speed.

Just about every club has injuries at this stage to the season. Some are a lot worse off than us. Look at Sunderland. No fit striker for the rest of the season. Were near the top of the table but now in free fall. Oh dear.

Again - I like them, they’re good solid young players. But in the business end we’re competing against West Brom, Norwich and Watford who have bigger depth due to the resources. Then you’ve got Milwall who seem to be a very hard working team. That’s all competing for one spot - given Blackburn and Luton are somewhat out of our reach with 11games to go.

put it this way - with the clubs we’re competing with, where would Eccles and Howley fit in?

 

[COVKIDSNEVERQUIT]

we only play Blackbum and Boro above us, not too difficult

6 points.

 

[tomreagan84]

Bet Victor: 16/1 for Coventry promotion.

We’ll probably fall short, but get on it anyway.

 

[shepardo01]

we only play Blackbum and Boro above us, not too difficult

Watford can beat anybody - and with a new manager will be a very difficult opponent.
QPR have a new manager and a good squad that were top of the table earlier in the season.
Hull, are difficult to beat, don't concede many goals and with a win would be breathing down our necks points wise.
Blackpool, on Saturday were the only team to stop Burnley from scoring since the World cup.

With the current midfield they will all be VERY challenging games.....
As I've said on another post, if we had Sheaf/Palmer/Allen all available and fit, I'd be excited about our chances going into the back end of the season.....
Instead I'm feeling frustrated about those injuries and the lesser quality starting 11 (and then paper thin squad) that we find ourselves with.....

 

[JulianDarbyFTW]

The 'supercomputer' is just the fivethirtyeight website (Championship Predictions)

It predicts each and every week, and has done for a few years. And the telegraph run a poncy article like this every year. It's annoying, because it's more of an algorithm than some footballing Deep Blue (chess reference for da kidz there).

The biggest plus point of the website is that you can select by date, so you can go back to any point in the season. Obviously, the further into the season the more accurate, but it's fun to see how it changes. For example, first week of September we were predicted to be 4th bottom, which wasn't far off from my own expectations at that point!

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Eccles has been really good.

The issue is all 3 of our AMs out injured at once.

And improving

 

[SonofErnie]

We have a good starting 11, a very good plan A. The rest of the league have enough players to have a plan B & C.

we are unlucky in terms of losing our AMs but we just don’t have the depth. Most teams wouldn’t have to dip into the Howleys of their squad to become starting 11 players for the last 10 games.

again - they’re good young players, but being at the stage to rely on them is too much to expect from them

Surely we were on Plan C last Saturday?

 

[Robinshio]

Surely we were on Plan C last Saturday?

probably plan D and got our biggest away win in years
We are now totally reliant on not getting an injury to Fadz/ Hamer/ Gyokeres
hope that we will have Sheaf back soon

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

Surely we were on Plan C last Saturday?

I think we’re in the throw anything at it and hope it sticks stage.

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

Our depth is woeful

O'Hare, Sheaf, Palmer, (to a lesser extent Kelly) Barely any team in this division cold cope with those injuries at the same time . How many midfielders do you expect a Championship squad to have? With that in mind, our abject depth has managed to see us unbeaten in 6. To have quality depth in a squad is unrealistic at this level unless you have just come down from the PL. The only exception to that is if you have a number of home grown players who happen to come through at the same time, and haven't blown the budget out of the water.

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

O'Hare, Sheaf, Palmer, (to a lesser extent Kelly) Barely any team in this division cold cope with those injuries at the same time . How many midfielders do you expect a Championship squad to have? With that in mind, our abject depth has managed to see us unbeaten in 6. To have quality depth in a squad is unrealistic at this level unless you have just come down from the PL. The only exception to that is if you have a number of home grown players who happen to come through at the same time, and haven't blown the budget out of the water.

If you’d have read my entire points youd realise you’ve literally said what I have.

we’re competing against Watford, Norwich and West Brom for 1 spot. Our depth compared to them is woeful.

I do not think we will get top 6 because our squad depth just isn’t there. The 3 teams mentioned could absorb losses of O’Hare, Sheaf and Palmer because they have similar quality players in reserve. We have youth kids who realistically should be left to develop

 

[nunchuckas]

i think any model has us losing to middlesbrough
if we get to the last game and still in with a fighting chance, anything can happen in a 1 off

By the time we play Boro on the last game, there's a very good chance their fate will be sealed, and they'll be resting players and preparing for the Playoffs. I'd fancy our chances in this scenario if we need a result.

Same theory applies to the Reading and Brum games, they will probably be dead rubber games for them at that point and will be on 'on the beach'.

Even as far back as QPR, they might be pretty much done and dusted by then f they're not dragged into the relegation mix. Blackburn are likely to still have something to play for though.

So get to the last 3 still in the mix and it's definitely on IMO.