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bookies getting twitchy (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter luwalla
  • Start date Jan 21, 2020
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luwalla

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #1
im sure my meager pre-season wages isn't going to bankrupt them, but could double my money.. so they must be getting twitchy

 
Reactions: torchomatic and Londonccfcfan

Sbarcher

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #2
Looks like you need to cashout - £0.04 won't get you far!
 
Reactions: CanadianCCFC, Astute, eastwoodsdustman and 2 others

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #3
And charge your phone!
 
Reactions: Kingokings204, CanadianCCFC, Sky Blue Pete and 3 others

Londonccfcfan

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #4
Dont cash in! Yes they are twitchy.

I practicaly have same two bets, but i got 7/1 and 25/1 also.

Not that i think we will win it, but you never know.
 
Reactions: luwalla
B

block16

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #5
Bet365 offering me 58 for the same bet. Not cashing out
 
C

ccfchoi87

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #6
Cash out on the second one! Two away losses coming up and you’ll be knackered
 

pusbccfc

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #7
I'd give it a few weeks. If we end up going top at any point, I reckon that cash out would shoot up.
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #8
luwalla said:
im sure my meager pre-season wages isn't going to bankrupt them, but could double my money.. so they must be getting twitchy
Click to expand...

you'll certainly have them more worried than I have with the 20 quid I stuck on Ipswich.
 

Londonccfcfan

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #9
Its funny, if you ask your friends who support other clubs from other divisions they actually think we have a cracking chance.

Is it in our dna to be pessimistic about our chances of winning it! Years of flattering to decieve. May happen again.

Expectations have they been raised so much so now that we would be dissapointed with play offs.

Nah we cant win it! Surely not! We arnt good enough to win it! Are we?
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #10
Londonccfcfan said:
Its funny, if you ask your friends who support other clubs from other divisions they actually think we have a cracking chance.

Is it in our dna to be pessimistic about our chances of winning it! Years of flattering to decieve. May happen again.

Expectations have they been raised so much so now that we would be dissapointed with play offs.

Nah we cant win it! Surely not! We arnt good enough to win it! Are we?
Click to expand...

I can't allow myself to get too optimistic, I can't deal with the crushing disappointment. I also genuinely believe we have more at stake than other clubs as it's not just promotion but our future that's on the line, (as I've said before, in my opinion, if we're in the Championship it totally alters the dynamic of the politics).
I could drive myself mad thinking about it too much.
 
Reactions: Mcbean, theferret, CanadianCCFC and 4 others

hill83

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #11
clint van damme said:
I can't allow myself to get too optimistic, I can't deal with the crushing disappointment. I also genuinely believe we have more at stake than other clubs as it's not just promotion but our future that's on the line, (as I've said before, in my opinion, if we're in the Championship it totally alters the dynamic of the politics).
I could drive myself mad thinking about it too much.
Click to expand...

What about the crushing disappointment if being in the championship doesn’t alter the political dynamics?
 
Reactions: Londonccfcfan

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #12
hill83 said:
What about the crushing disappointment if being in the championship doesn’t alter the political dynamics?
Click to expand...

Bastard!
 

hill83

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #13
clint van damme said:
Bastard!
Click to expand...

 
Reactions: CCFCSteve and clint van damme

eastwoodsdustman

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #14
Londonccfcfan said:
Its funny, if you ask your friends who support other clubs from other divisions they actually think we have a cracking chance.

Is it in our dna to be pessimistic about our chances of winning it! Years of flattering to decieve. May happen again.

Expectations have they been raised so much so now that we would be dissapointed with play offs.

Nah we cant win it! Surely not! We arnt good enough to win it! Are we?
Click to expand...

This is so true. I went to Bristol rovers and stood in their end, kept as quiet as i could and and when Godden missed his chance at the end a bloke tapped me on the shoulder and said 'you could have done with that going in'. Anyhow I got talking to him and he reckoned that he was going to put money on us to win the league after watching us draw with them. He aid, like many other teams have, that we're the best team they've seen all season.
 
Reactions: Londonccfcfan

mrtrench

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #15
It's nothing to do with being twitchy. The odds have changed and so they offer you the opportunity to cash out at current market price. Remember that they run a balanced book - they will probably be very happy with Cov winning the league as I bet they took much more money on Sunderland and Ipswich.
 
Reactions: Grendel and Briles

hill83

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #16
mrtrench said:
It's nothing to do with being twitchy. The odds have changed and so they offer you the opportunity to cash out at current market price. Remember that they run a balanced book - they will probably be very happy with Cov winning the league as I bet they took much more money on Sunderland and Ipswich.
Click to expand...

Not true.

They assign one member of staff to watch each bet 24/7.
 
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clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #17
mrtrench said:
It's nothing to do with being twitchy. The odds have changed and so they offer you the opportunity to cash out at current market price. Remember that they run a balanced book - they will probably be very happy with Cov winning the league as I bet they took much more money on Sunderland and Ipswich.
Click to expand...

I'm fairly sure bookies don't run a balanced book, they have an over round weighed in their favour but your general point still stands.
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #18
hill83 said:
Not true.

They assign one member of staff to watch each bet 24/7.
Click to expand...

 

mrtrench

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #19
clint van damme said:
I'm fairly sure bookies don't run a balanced book, they have an over round weighed in their favour but your general point still stands.
Click to expand...

The odds offered represent the probability of each outcome. They offer odds so that the probabilities sum to more than 1 - typically around 1.1 so they have a 10% take on the book. It won't be perfectly balanced but they'll aim to keep it within limits and lay off when they need to.

You can see them doing it on Betfair Exchange, where the take is usually lower (sometimes as little as 2%). Suddenly there's a hug bet on one or more outcomes, which brings the Betfair market back closer to bookies' odds for a short time.
 
L

luwalla

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #20
mrtrench said:
It's nothing to do with being twitchy. The odds have changed and so they offer you the opportunity to cash out at current market price. Remember that they run a balanced book - they will probably be very happy with Cov winning the league as I bet they took much more money on Sunderland and Ipswich.
Click to expand...

yeah but that didn't lend itself to a catchy headline...
 
Reactions: CanadianCCFC and mrtrench

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #21
mrtrench said:
The odds offered represent the probability of each outcome. They offer odds so that the probabilities sum to more than 1 - typically around 1.1 so they have a 10% take on the book. It won't be perfectly balanced but they'll aim to keep it within limits and lay off when they need to.

You can see them doing it on Betfair Exchange, where the take is usually lower (sometimes as little as 2%). Suddenly there's a hug bet on one or more outcomes, which brings the Betfair market back closer to bookies' odds for a short time.
Click to expand...

saw a feature on Turkish horse racing where the bookies rounded the book by a bout 30 percent in their favour. There were races with several horses who were odds on!
 
Reactions: mrtrench

richnrg

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #22
mrtrench said:
You can see them doing it on Betfair Exchange, where the take is usually lower (sometimes as little as 2%). Suddenly there's a hug bet on one or more outcomes, which brings the Betfair market back closer to bookies' odds for a short time.
Click to expand...
damm those hug bets
 
Reactions: mrtrench

BackRoomRummermill

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #23
Let it ride mate , if we get into Top 2 it will be offering 250
 
Reactions: luwalla

Flying Fokker

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 21, 2020
  • #24
I’m £81.41. Cashout. From £20 @ 16/1. Promotion.
Took a dip a couple of games ago. Draw but back up...
 
L

luwalla

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 7, 2020
  • #25
Took a massive jump today , went up from 180 quid to 300 quid cash in on them to win the league, 500 if I hold on!... cash in or hold my nerves

Ps - don’t think I could cash in anyway, just in case i jinx it LOL
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete

rob9872

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2020
  • #26
luwalla said:
Took a massive jump today , went up from 180 quid to 300 quid cash in on them to win the league, 500 if I hold on!... cash in or hold my nerves

Ps - don’t think I could cash in anyway, just in case i jinx it LOL
Click to expand...
300 is a free season ticket and you'll be happy if we win the league regardless
 
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BackRoomRummermill

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2020
  • #27
luwalla said:
Took a massive jump today , went up from 180 quid to 300 quid cash in on them to win the league, 500 if I hold on!... cash in or hold my nerves
Ps - don’t think I could cash in anyway, just in case i jinx it LOL
Click to expand...

I was spot on from earlier post , look mate it won’t go up much more now , maybe up to 350 and there it will stay as they hedging there bet. Another thing these cash outs suddenly become unavailable , Bet Fred and Paddy Power the worst

I am waiting one more match but my bet the same is not available on Paddy Power to cash out , I rang them and they said it was still in progress . I said what was in relation to the bet , there reply the computer decides , over to you but if your happy with 300 then take it
 

BackRoomRummermill

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2020
  • #28
Flying Fokker said:
I’m £81.41. Cashout. From £20 @ 16/1. Promotion.
Took a dip a couple of games ago. Draw but back up...[/QUOTE

that should be running at 150 by now check it again mate
Click to expand...
 

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2020
  • #29
We are 4/7 with sky to win it outright and Rotherham are second favourites at 5/1
 

BackRoomRummermill

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2020
  • #30
The 5/1 is good value each way I reckon them being second , it also says a lot about CCFC chances
 

Flying Fokker

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2020
  • #31
Up to £240. £20. 16/1 for promotion.
 
Reactions: RegTheDonk and BackRoomRummermill
H

Happy_Martian

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2020
  • #32
Sunderland 7/1 to get an auto spot with SkyBet. Could be worth a packet of crisps
 

BackRoomRummermill

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2020
  • #33
Happy_Martian said:
Sunderland 7/1 to get an auto spot with SkyBet. Could be worth a packet of crisps
Click to expand...

just looked at that they are 25-1 to win it also they have an easy run of games as well
 
J

Jcap

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2020
  • #34
Happy_Martian said:
Sunderland 7/1 to get an auto spot with SkyBet. Could be worth a packet of crisps
Click to expand...
Might load £20 on that and hope like all my bets it goes tits up and jinxes them consigning them to play offs or worse
 
H

Happy_Martian

Well-Known Member
  • Mar 8, 2020
  • #35
Jcap said:
Might load £20 on that and hope like all my bets it goes tits up and jinxes them consigning them to play offs or worse
Click to expand...

Nah, if you want that, you need to put a few quid on Sunderland to be promoted at 9/4. My ability to pick results isn't that great, I've said Cov would lose the last 5 and they have defied me each time Sunderland would drop into the bottom half of the table if I backed them for promotion :angelic::angelic:
 
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