We sit in between the halfway line and edge of the penalty box at home, when you look across its frightening, would love to see the defensive coaching
Match Thread Birmingham City - Coventry City Match Thread - Sunday 4th Jan (49 Viewers)
- Thread starter Nick
- Start date
We sit in between the halfway line and edge of the penalty box at home, when you look across its frightening, would love to see the defensive coaching
skyblue_55
Well-Known Member
Wrexham , Charlton & now Brum away …..
1 point against the 3 promoted teams & today we allowed a piss poor team , to make our defence look like Sunday league .
Awful today lads & topped off with Thomas , goaded into getting sent off , but in reality , after his first half performance, should he have been substituted at half time ?
What’s Wolfie done to Frank ?
1 point against the 3 promoted teams & today we allowed a piss poor team , to make our defence look like Sunday league .
Awful today lads & topped off with Thomas , goaded into getting sent off , but in reality , after his first half performance, should he have been substituted at half time ?
What’s Wolfie done to Frank ?
Nick
Administrator
Another MVE gift.
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
If I can get deported instead of paying for a flight that’ll be grand.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Play your cards right they’ll give you £800 and a flight anywhere of your choosing.
The shape looks fine to be fair.
Credit to them it's a great pass.
But it's really bad from MVE, has to track the man rather than trying to play offside.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Well the song does warn you what Birmingham is full of.
Warwickhunt
Well-Known Member
MVE has got to stop taking long throw ins on our left hand! He's leaving us wide open to the counter attack and clubs have spotted it.
Frostie
Well-Known Member
I don't think we should dispense with one of our key attacking threats, the fullbacks should simply just switch sides for that passage of play. No idea why that isn't already happening, it's so basic.
southern_comfort
Facebook User
Is it a key attacking threat?
every team is prepared for it and it’s been ages since we scored from one. We need new tactics we are so predictable
every team is prepared for it and it’s been ages since we scored from one. We need new tactics we are so predictable
Frostie
Well-Known Member
We literally scored from a long throw on Boxing Day?
Ellery Cairo's Wig
Member
I rarely post but having a professional interest in figres I was interested in how for the last month or so things have changed.
Coventry have the 3rd highest number of throughballs played against them (only Preston and Norwich above them) but the 12th most played by them. They have the 10th highest passing accuracy (77%) whilst at the same time MVE has one of the lowest passing accuracies in the squad. EMC only completes around 55% of the progressive passes/carries he receives which doesn’t really appear to be great, as he is by far the largest outlet with 183 progressive passes received (next is Rudoni with 118). Coventry also rank among the bottom 5 in switches of the ball, which I think they really should be utilising more to stretch, especially when you’re effectively using two very attacking full backs. WIth this stat in mind they have the second highest number of offsides despite the low number of throughballs.
Interestingly, Sheffield United, Ipswich, Charlton, Birmingham and Bristol City, all have a much higher possession won in the final 3rd than Coventry - ie over the last few games, perhaps an adjustment with the midfield (not players but positioning) may have been prudent. Splitting the season so far into two sections - up to match 18 as 1 and beyond as 2 a simple stat is that over section 1, Coventry outperformed their xG by 0.34 goals per match—an aggregate of 6+ additional goals from clinical execution. In section 2, they're underperforming xG by −0.23 goals per match. That's a -0.57 goal swing in finishing efficiency, explaining nearly 40% of the goal-scoring collapse without any reference to chance creation.
Reduced chance creation (19.7% decline in SCA) despite maintained possession, indicating opponents have adapted tactically and defending the final third more effectively
Medium pass efficiency degradation (84.1% → 79.4%), the steepest decline among pass types, reducing Coventry's ability to progress through crucial midfield zones where attacking patterns initiate
Defensive structural vulnerability (goals against doubled, xGA up 72%), suggesting tactical or positional breakdowns unrelated to passing quality
Most likely that last one is due to possession, and where in particular it’s being played (see graph)
Phase 1: 0.286 goals per PPA (1 goal per 3.5 chances in the box)
Phase 2: 0.156 goals per PPA (1 goal per 6.4 chances)
You can see the collapse a little more clearly here (ie every single one of these stats is down). So whilst maintaining a very similar amount of possession they are being less creative and more conservative with it
And are more likely to be hit on turnovers, where the chances (as we saw today) are clearly stemming from. I think this again, is down to their lack of progressive action with the ball, whilst it may “look” more conservative and safe, it allows your whole team to move higher up the pitch and creates a larger space for you to be exposed to vs a more direct/mid-distance passing type. And again - you can see that push back into set piece chance creation creeping back up (as it was at the start of the season). And finally,
These are just my observations and basic stats and not criticisms of any players or coaching staff. I support the team whatever and have done for over 60 years but I was just interested to see what stats could be used to support the drop off in form and goal scoring. I am not sure having a small squad helps but it cannot be the only factor. If you have got to the end of this comment well done and apologies if you now see this as five minutes of your life you're never getting back.
Coventry have the 3rd highest number of throughballs played against them (only Preston and Norwich above them) but the 12th most played by them. They have the 10th highest passing accuracy (77%) whilst at the same time MVE has one of the lowest passing accuracies in the squad. EMC only completes around 55% of the progressive passes/carries he receives which doesn’t really appear to be great, as he is by far the largest outlet with 183 progressive passes received (next is Rudoni with 118). Coventry also rank among the bottom 5 in switches of the ball, which I think they really should be utilising more to stretch, especially when you’re effectively using two very attacking full backs. WIth this stat in mind they have the second highest number of offsides despite the low number of throughballs.
Interestingly, Sheffield United, Ipswich, Charlton, Birmingham and Bristol City, all have a much higher possession won in the final 3rd than Coventry - ie over the last few games, perhaps an adjustment with the midfield (not players but positioning) may have been prudent. Splitting the season so far into two sections - up to match 18 as 1 and beyond as 2 a simple stat is that over section 1, Coventry outperformed their xG by 0.34 goals per match—an aggregate of 6+ additional goals from clinical execution. In section 2, they're underperforming xG by −0.23 goals per match. That's a -0.57 goal swing in finishing efficiency, explaining nearly 40% of the goal-scoring collapse without any reference to chance creation.
Reduced chance creation (19.7% decline in SCA) despite maintained possession, indicating opponents have adapted tactically and defending the final third more effectively
Medium pass efficiency degradation (84.1% → 79.4%), the steepest decline among pass types, reducing Coventry's ability to progress through crucial midfield zones where attacking patterns initiate
Defensive structural vulnerability (goals against doubled, xGA up 72%), suggesting tactical or positional breakdowns unrelated to passing quality
Most likely that last one is due to possession, and where in particular it’s being played (see graph)
Phase 1: 0.286 goals per PPA (1 goal per 3.5 chances in the box)
Phase 2: 0.156 goals per PPA (1 goal per 6.4 chances)
You can see the collapse a little more clearly here (ie every single one of these stats is down). So whilst maintaining a very similar amount of possession they are being less creative and more conservative with it
And are more likely to be hit on turnovers, where the chances (as we saw today) are clearly stemming from. I think this again, is down to their lack of progressive action with the ball, whilst it may “look” more conservative and safe, it allows your whole team to move higher up the pitch and creates a larger space for you to be exposed to vs a more direct/mid-distance passing type. And again - you can see that push back into set piece chance creation creeping back up (as it was at the start of the season). And finally,
These are just my observations and basic stats and not criticisms of any players or coaching staff. I support the team whatever and have done for over 60 years but I was just interested to see what stats could be used to support the drop off in form and goal scoring. I am not sure having a small squad helps but it cannot be the only factor. If you have got to the end of this comment well done and apologies if you now see this as five minutes of your life you're never getting back.StrettoBoy
Well-Known Member
I could never understand why Robins didn't use the long throws tactic and thought it was a useful weapon (as it has proved to be) that we should use but shouldn't overdo it. Now we seem to use it all the time and I think it is becoming less effective, as other teams get wise to us. I'm sure there's a happy medium somewhere.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
More simple than that, MVE is knackered and the throws have become less threatening in any case.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
im convinced it is fatigue. Fatigue that stops the runs the either win the ball back or offer an option going forwards.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
This is a great post, I hadn't seen any data but suggested on here or in a group chat that our passing was the source of our defensive woes, good to see that comment appears to have some factual foundation.
Skyblueweeman
Well-Known Member
Not sure but I think we'll defo see him vs Stike, Losster and Mallwill.
StrettoBoy
Well-Known Member
I think it's his legs that have gone, not his arms. I think, as I said above, that they are less effective because other teams now expect it every time and they have got wise to us. We need to mix it up a bit.
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A-Lighter-Shade-Of-Blue
Member
Is Our Form Down to the Number 10?
Our current form feels linked to the number 10 role.
The difference between BTA and Rudoni is hard to miss.
What We Miss Without BTA
BTA plays with energy.
He runs forward.
He attacks the box.
Defenders have to react.
They get pulled out of place.
This helps everyone else.
- The striker gets support
- Wingers find space
- Attacks move faster
How Rudoni Is Playing
Rudoni plays the role in a very different way.
He drifts wide.
He drops deep.
He rarely runs into the box.
He sees a lot of the ball.
But play slows down.
Defenders settle.
Chances dry up.
What This Does to the Attack
This hurts our front line.
- The striker is isolated
- Wingers face two defenders
- No one attacks central spaces
They are not stretched.
If We Keep Playing This Way
If Rudoni stays in this role, we must adjust.
Step 1: Accept he is not a box runner.
Step 2: Change what we ask from the striker – almost certainly meaning we have to buy a new one in January
We would need a striker who:
- Holds the ball
- Brings others in
- Runs channels on his own – has pace to worry defenders
The Other Option
The other option is patience.
BTA should be back later this month, but BTA’s return carries a clear risk because his game relies on power and repeated sprints. He is very muscular, which puts extra strain on the hamstring when accelerating and changing direction. If he comes back too soon, he may lack full pace or avoid hard runs, which would limit his impact. A setback is the main concern, as hamstring injuries often return if load is increased too quickly. The club will need to manage his minutes carefully, as a half-fit BTA is not the same threat fans are used to seeing.
Once fit, the attack should lift.
But that is a gamble – it means that things are unlikely to change until he is up to speed, and by then we could have fallen well down the table.
January Decision
January could be key.
I would go for a new BTA-type player this month.
That means a number 10 who:
- Runs beyond the striker
- Attacks the box
- Speeds the game up
And Finally
As you said this is not just about form.
It is about balance.
Right now, the number 10 does not fit the way we want to play.
It's more like the players are going through a weak phase rather than opposition getting wise to it, although they maybe it's a desire thing.