So statistically we only need a small upturn in form to be favourites for 2nd. New players coming in and players coming back to fitness should see to that
All of these predictions are based on past results. But there are so many uncertainties about the future and many reasons it may not replicate the past. Changes in manager, players, injuries, suspensions, loans ending etc. etc. What we do know is that the play-offs are a lottery you are unlikely to win. So we need to do our utmost toward automatic promotion. I'd like to see us aim to be Champions.
It's not that they are never wrong, it's that they fix the odds so over time they make a profit. It's the same principle as a gambling casino. You win just enough, to keep you going, but over time losses outweigh wins.
It should be possible to come up with a computer program that 'invents' its own prediction theories then applies each one to every game that has been played in the season to evaluate their accuracy. It would do this thousands of times making small adjustments to the algorithm until it finally determined which was the most accurate predictor. Of course this would be an ongoing process which would need to be rerun after every set of games. Maybe the bookies have already done his and have the perfect algorithm.
All of these predictions are based on past results. But there are so many uncertainties about the future and many reasons it may not replicate the past. Changes in manager, players, injuries, suspensions, loans ending etc. etc. What we do know is that the play-offs are a lottery you are unlikely to win. So we need to do our utmost toward automatic promotion. I'd like to see us aim to be Champions.