An Interesting Read Regarding Predictions

Discussion in 'Coventry City General Chat' started by Skybluebenno, Jan 3, 2016.

  1. Skybluebenno

    Skybluebenno Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2012
    Messages:
    40
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Manchester
    Credit:
    £100.00
  2. Liquid Gold

    Liquid Gold Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2013
    Messages:
    12,473
    Likes Received:
    12,761
    Location:
    Brizzle
    Credit:
    £9,031.74
    So statistically we only need a small upturn in form to be favourites for 2nd. New players coming in and players coming back to fitness should see to that
     
  3. Sky Blue Pete

    Sky Blue Pete Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2012
    Messages:
    11,420
    Likes Received:
    2,674
    Credit:
    £4,554.42
    It's great stuff really like it
     
  4. stupot07

    stupot07 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2011
    Messages:
    24,157
    Likes Received:
    8,370
    Credit:
    £1,327.55
    Brilliant. Where is it?

    [​IMG]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors :)
     
  5. Skybluebenno

    Skybluebenno Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2012
    Messages:
    40
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Manchester
    Credit:
    £100.00
    I thought it was an interesting way of interpreting form. Never really seen it done this way before.

    For me the most surprising thing was how far it had Burton ahead of the chasing pack. Nearly a 70% chance of them finishing in the top 2.

    But with regards to us, doesn't really throw anything new up. A small up-turn in form could see us clinch a top 2 spot... would be nice, wouldn't it?!
     
  6. wingy

    wingy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2011
    Messages:
    22,914
    Likes Received:
    7,283
    Credit:
    £1,474.75
    Looks like something Chris Anderson would knock up/appreciate.
     
  7. the rumpo kid

    the rumpo kid Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2013
    Messages:
    896
    Likes Received:
    399
    Credit:
    £361.55
    there are lies dam lies and statistics
     
  8. BackRoomRummermill

    BackRoomRummermill Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    3,785
    Likes Received:
    739
    Location:
    Back In UK
    Credit:
    £158.77
    we want the bookies software models , they are never far wrong
     
  9. Gazolba

    Gazolba Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2013
    Messages:
    7,626
    Likes Received:
    2,910
    Location:
    BBC says 'outside the UK'
    Credit:
    £3,207.51
    All of these predictions are based on past results. But there are so many uncertainties about the future and many reasons it may not replicate the past. Changes in manager, players, injuries, suspensions, loans ending etc. etc. What we do know is that the play-offs are a lottery you are unlikely to win. So we need to do our utmost toward automatic promotion. I'd like to see us aim to be Champions.
     
  10. Gazolba

    Gazolba Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2013
    Messages:
    7,626
    Likes Received:
    2,910
    Location:
    BBC says 'outside the UK'
    Credit:
    £3,207.51
    It's not that they are never wrong, it's that they fix the odds so over time they make a profit. It's the same principle as a gambling casino. You win just enough, to keep you going, but over time losses outweigh wins.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2016
  11. Gazolba

    Gazolba Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2013
    Messages:
    7,626
    Likes Received:
    2,910
    Location:
    BBC says 'outside the UK'
    Credit:
    £3,207.51
    It should be possible to come up with a computer program that 'invents' its own prediction theories then applies each one to every game that has been played in the season to evaluate their accuracy. It would do this thousands of times making small adjustments to the algorithm until it finally determined which was the most accurate predictor. Of course this would be an ongoing process which would need to be rerun after every set of games. Maybe the bookies have already done his and have the perfect algorithm.
     
  12. harvey098

    harvey098 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2011
    Messages:
    1,335
    Likes Received:
    608
    Credit:
    £355.85
    It shows that Walsall have been pretty clinical in front of goal
     
  13. Sky Blue Pete

    Sky Blue Pete Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2012
    Messages:
    11,420
    Likes Received:
    2,674
    Credit:
    £4,554.42
    Not completely correct. You have a 25% chance in the playoffs. If you finish 3rd or 4th you have a slightly higher chance
     

Share This Page