How do you get Lesta so high up the table?
I'm not sure. I guess looking at week to week fixtures I see more they win than lose
Pos Team Predicted Points Status 1 Middlesbrough 90 Champions (P) 2 Coventry City 88 Automatic (P) 3 Ipswich Town 86 Play-offs 4 Hull City 79 Play-offs 5 Millwall 77 Play-offs 6 Wrexham 72 Play-offs 7 Southampton 70 - 8 Derby County 69 - 9 Preston North End 68 - 10 Birmingham City 66 - 11 Bristol City 65 - 12 Watford 64 - 13 Stoke City 62 - 14 Queens Park Rangers 61 - 15 Swansea City 60 - 16 Sheffield United 59 - 17 Norwich City 56 - 18 Charlton Athletic 55 - 19 West Bromwich Albion 51 - 20 Portsmouth 50 - 21 Leicester City 48 - 22 Blackburn Rovers 47 Relegated (R) 23 Oxford United 39 Relegated (R) 24 Sheffield Wednesday 4 Relegated (R)
Snatch their hands off.
This has Ipswich having only played 45 games and 1 point behind 2nd
They forgot to allow for mboros total collapse after we’ve shown everyone how to beat them
A win at West Brom would be fantastic
Hope im wrong
For me:
Rank Team Points Title Promotion Promotion P/0 Rel 1 Coventry 86.95 65.44% 90.16% 9.82% 0.00% 2 Middlesbrough 83.59 24.38% 68.38% 31.38% 0.00% 3 Ipswich 79.17 7.92% 28.70% 67.38% 0.00% 4 Millwall 75.44 1.44% 6.60% 76.38% 0.00% 5 Hull 74.15 0.76% 4.92% 69.42% 0.00% 6 Wrexham 69.14 0.02% 0.76% 35.38% 0.00% 7 Southampton 67.18 0.02% 0.12% 22.44% 0.00% 8 Birmingham 66.83 0.00% 0.12% 19.92% 0.00% 9 Derby 66.56 0.02% 0.18% 18.50% 0.00% 10 Watford 65.14 0.00% 0.04% 11.86% 0.00% 11 Preston 65.13 0.00% 0.00% 10.58% 0.00% 12 Bristol City 64.52 0.00% 0.02% 8.66% 0.06% 13 Sheff Utd 63.58 0.00% 0.00% 6.94% 0.08% 14 QPR 63.20 0.00% 0.00% 4.66% 0.06% 15 Stoke 61.61 0.00% 0.00% 3.40% 0.36% 16 Swansea 61.40 0.00% 0.00% 2.66% 0.30% 17 Norwich 57.38 0.00% 0.00% 0.24% 2.76% 18 Charlton 56.39 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 5.80% 19 Portsmouth 56.15 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 6.10% 20 Blackburn 53.66 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 16.08% 21 Leicester 50.19 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 36.88% 22 West Bromwich 49.89 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 45.04% 23 Oxford 44.09 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 86.48% 24 Sheff Wed 4.17 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
They have to play eachother which is great , guaranteed dropped points
How have you set that up?I’ve been running a projection model on the full Championship table, not just naive PPG stuff, but a blended model that factors in recent form, fixture difficulty and games in hand, and I’ve run those factors through 100,000 simulations, these are the results after today’s games:
92.7% probability of automatic promotion
∙ 71.0% probability of winning the title
∙ 100% probability of finishing in the top 6
For context: Middlesbrough only have a 72.5% chance of going up automatically.
My model also had Leicester going down in 55% of simulations, but if they get another point deduction it changes massively - 61% chance of relegation with an extra 1 point deduction and if they got 3 more points deducted their chance of relegation goes up to 73%.
Just a python script with some opinionated inputs - the model blends each team’s season form with their last six results (weighting recent games 60/40), adjusts for remaining fixture difficulty and games in hand and then runs that same set of inputs 100,000 times to produce a probability per position per club. It’s probably not a million miles away from what Opta does for their model.
It's the only chance we'd have of beating them. A cursed team.
Oh I don't think we'll get 9 points from those 3, fat chance. I'd be over the moon with 7, ok with 5, indeed 4 points if the win came against Ipswich.
See it as an extra day to prepare while Sheff Utd are preoccupied with relegating their neighbours.
