stupot07
Well-Known Member
Sorry v bored so decided to take a closer look at our league stats. Being 24 games meant I could look at it in 2 halves and also 4 blocks of 6 games.
Quick analysis on the first 24 games
First 12
P12 W3 D4 L5 F13 A16 Pts 13 PpG 1.08 16th place 5 points off 6th
Season 12
P12 W4 D4 L4 F13 A15 Pts 16 PpG 1.33 16th 4 points off 6th*
Yesterday's win was the difference between the 2 blocks of 12 games.
Overall.
P24 W7 D8 L9 F26 A31 Pts 29 PpG 1.21
*6th place have 2 games in hand
Broken into 4 blocks of 6 games
1st 6 games
P6 W2 D3 L1 F7 A6 Pts 9 PpG 1.5 6th place
2nd 6 games
P6 W1 D1 L4 F6 A10 Pts 4 PpG 0.67 16th place 5 points of 6th
3rd 6 games
P6 W2 D1 L3 F8 A12 Pts7 PpG 1.17 18th place 9 points off 6th
4th 6 games
P6 W2 D3 L1 F5 A3 Pts 9 PpG 1.5 16th 4 points of 6th*
After the poor run in the 2nd block of games, form has gradually got better and returned to the levels at the beginning of the season. A big plus had seen our defence improved conceding just 3 goals in the last 6 games. Unfortunately, along with that we've scored just 5 goals in 6 games. But if you can keep cleansheets you're guaranteed at least 1 point.
Can we make the play offs?
Rather than the current 4 point gap, it's best to look at what the benchmark for 6th place is over the last 10 years the average points for 6th has been 74.1, however the range has been between 71 and 80 points (see below). My heart wants to say yes, but my head is very sceptical.
So what do we need?
Based on 74 average (this should be our target) we require 45 points from our remaining 22 games - 2.05 PpG.
If we believe the points total is going to be lower this season - then 71 points means 42 points in 22 games - 1.91 PpG.
Although our form has improved in the last 2 blocks of 6 games, have we got enough in the team to hit and maintain c2 PpG average for the remaining 22 games? To do this I would think we would need to go on a 5-6 winning streak to take the pressure off. January's a big month, it looks as though Nouble has said his farewells, so the dynamic of the team will change again.
Points 6th place finished on:
2013/14 - 74
2012/13 - 74
2011/12 - 73
2010/11 - 71
2009/10 - 80
2008/09 - 76
2007/08 - 76
2006/07 - 75
2005/06 - 71
2004/05 - 71
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors
Quick analysis on the first 24 games
First 12
P12 W3 D4 L5 F13 A16 Pts 13 PpG 1.08 16th place 5 points off 6th
Season 12
P12 W4 D4 L4 F13 A15 Pts 16 PpG 1.33 16th 4 points off 6th*
Yesterday's win was the difference between the 2 blocks of 12 games.
Overall.
P24 W7 D8 L9 F26 A31 Pts 29 PpG 1.21
*6th place have 2 games in hand
Broken into 4 blocks of 6 games
1st 6 games
P6 W2 D3 L1 F7 A6 Pts 9 PpG 1.5 6th place
2nd 6 games
P6 W1 D1 L4 F6 A10 Pts 4 PpG 0.67 16th place 5 points of 6th
3rd 6 games
P6 W2 D1 L3 F8 A12 Pts7 PpG 1.17 18th place 9 points off 6th
4th 6 games
P6 W2 D3 L1 F5 A3 Pts 9 PpG 1.5 16th 4 points of 6th*
After the poor run in the 2nd block of games, form has gradually got better and returned to the levels at the beginning of the season. A big plus had seen our defence improved conceding just 3 goals in the last 6 games. Unfortunately, along with that we've scored just 5 goals in 6 games. But if you can keep cleansheets you're guaranteed at least 1 point.
Can we make the play offs?
Rather than the current 4 point gap, it's best to look at what the benchmark for 6th place is over the last 10 years the average points for 6th has been 74.1, however the range has been between 71 and 80 points (see below). My heart wants to say yes, but my head is very sceptical.
So what do we need?
Based on 74 average (this should be our target) we require 45 points from our remaining 22 games - 2.05 PpG.
If we believe the points total is going to be lower this season - then 71 points means 42 points in 22 games - 1.91 PpG.
Although our form has improved in the last 2 blocks of 6 games, have we got enough in the team to hit and maintain c2 PpG average for the remaining 22 games? To do this I would think we would need to go on a 5-6 winning streak to take the pressure off. January's a big month, it looks as though Nouble has said his farewells, so the dynamic of the team will change again.
Points 6th place finished on:
2013/14 - 74
2012/13 - 74
2011/12 - 73
2010/11 - 71
2009/10 - 80
2008/09 - 76
2007/08 - 76
2006/07 - 75
2005/06 - 71
2004/05 - 71
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors
