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48 pts (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
  • Start date Nov 26, 2025
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BackRoomRummermill

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #1
So according to AI the general average requirement is 88 points for auto promotion - we have 29 games to play - we could in theory from 29 win 15 - draw 3 and lose another 11 and still go up - almost to the stage we can afford a bad run but still go up - i know it’s a figure of 88 but it feels about right - i am trying to justify things in my head in are we really going to make it -
 
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shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #2
Also according to AI no team 45 points or more at game 20 has failed to be promoted. 5 from the next 3?
 

Londonccfcfan

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #3
Fuck AI...this season is an absolute anomoly..the table is messed up from 2nd place to 2nd bottom.

Norwich and Sheff United wont be anywhere near bottom 3.

After that...its take yoir pick..its never been so tight or competitive.

I think title winners 90 points. 2nd place as low as 85.

But 3rd to 6th will be as high as 80 to 72

Also 3rd from bottom will go down on 50pts.

What do i know.
 
Reactions: PUSB-We_are_going_up and wingy

bawtryneal

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #4
Londonccfcfan said:
Fuck AI...this season is an absolute anomoly..the table is messed up from 2nd place to 2nd bottom.

Norwich and Sheff United wont be anywhere near bottom 3.

After that...its take yoir pick..its never been so tight or competitive.

I think title winners 90 points. 2nd place as low as 85.

But 3rd to 6th will be as high as 80 to 72

Also 3rd from bottom will go down on 50pts.

What do i know.
Click to expand...

You obviously were never very good at maths
Only one team can get three points maximum every match
Everyone plays everyone twice.
 
Reactions: HadjiChippo, Londonccfcfan and Otis

fatso

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #5
BackRoomRummermill said:
So according to AI the general average requirement is 88 points for auto promotion - we have 29 games to play - we could in theory from 29 win 15 - draw 3 and lose another 11 and still go up - almost to the stage we can afford a bad run but still go up - i know it’s a figure of 88 but it feels about right - i am trying to justify things in my head in are we really going to make it -
Click to expand...
Let's just win every game and fuck AI
 
Reactions: CV3SkyBlue, SomersetSB, Bernie Rhodes Nose and 4 others

bawtryneal

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #6
Appreciate stating the obvious but the two games against both Ipswich and Southampton will define our destiny.
 
Reactions: Bidda, no_loyalty and Mild-Mannered Janitor

Manchester_sky_blue

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #7
Londonccfcfan said:
Fuck AI...this season is an absolute anomoly..the table is messed up from 2nd place to 2nd bottom.

Norwich and Sheff United wont be anywhere near bottom 3.

After that...its take yoir pick..its never been so tight or competitive.

I think title winners 90 points. 2nd place as low as 85.

But 3rd to 6th will be as high as 80 to 72

Also 3rd from bottom will go down on 50pts.

What do i know.
Click to expand...
People said the same about Luton...... People said it about Leeds when they went down..... No doubt people said it about us too. Reputation and squad "value" doth butter no parsnips.
 
Reactions: itsabuzzard

bawtryneal

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #8
Norwich will get relegated in my opinion.
SUFC will finish around 10th.
 

bigfatronssba

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #9
shmmeee said:
Also according to AI no team 45 points or more at game 20 has failed to be promoted. 5 from the next 3?
Click to expand...

I had a look back myself at some old league tables.

Last club to have 40+ points after 17 games and not go up was Bradford in 1988
 

SIR ERNIE

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #10
Best price 1/7 for promotion.
 
Reactions: nicksar

Sky_Blue_Daz

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #11
lets just finish the Job, and enjoy the ride
 
Reactions: Fergusons_Beard, covcity4life, thekidfromstrettoncamp and 3 others

fatso

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #12
bawtryneal said:
Appreciate stating the obvious but the two games against both Ipswich and Southampton will define our destiny.
Click to expand...
Said that before the Stoke and Middlesbrough games.

Its games against poorer teams that have cost us points, Hull, Leicester, Norwich and Wrexham for example.

We actually play better against the better teams.
Last night Borough conceded 4 goals which is equal to what they've conceded at home all season, and yet we only started playing well in the last 15 minutes.

It was the same against WBA on Saturday, we played well for 15 minutes at the start of the second half and blew them away.

Against better teams we will just play well for a bit longer and blow them away too.
 
Last edited: Nov 26, 2025
Reactions: Albo and Sky Blue Pete
K

KenilworthSkyBlue

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #13
Manchester_sky_blue said:
People said the same about Luton...... People said it about Leeds when they went down..... No doubt people said it about us too. Reputation and squad "value" doth butter no parsnips.
Click to expand...

The same will happen to Norwich if they take the same approach as Luton did, where they never seemed to act as if they were in a relegation battle until it was too late.

Successive windows of very poor recruitment and the squad stagnating led them to go down - the Jan window last season was the same where they just ended up bringing in players which weren't really quite good enough.

Norwich will likely need to invest, and invest well, in the coming window to put it right.
 
C

CV22SBA

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #14
Londonccfcfan said:
Fuck AI...this season is an absolute anomoly..the table is messed up from 2nd place to 2nd bottom.

Norwich and Sheff United wont be anywhere near bottom 3.

After that...its take yoir pick..its never been so tight or competitive.

I think title winners 90 points. 2nd place as low as 85.

But 3rd to 6th will be as high as 80 to 72

Also 3rd from bottom will go down on 50pts.

What do i know.
Click to expand...
Sheff Utd agree but Norwich are awful and will lose Sargent in January. I work with a Norwich fan and he's convinced they will be relegated.
 

Robinshio

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #15
bigfatronssba said:
I had a look back myself at some old league tables.

Last club to have 40+ points after 17 games and not go up was Bradford in 1988
Click to expand...
was 87/88 season, they had 37 points from 17 games (so may need to look back further ??)

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-division-two/05-november-1987/
 

bigfatronssba

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #16
Robinshio said:
was 87/88 season, they had 37 points from 17 games (so may need to look back further ??)

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-division-two/05-november-1987/
Click to expand...

You're right, I must've scrambled my brain by looking at decades of tables!
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #17
All lost in the mists of time but in the 1963-64 promotion season we were absolutely pissing the league at Christmas when iirc we beat Barnsley 3-1 (I was there aged 10). We then went weeks without a win....

I think we even dropped out of the top 2, before a late revival saw is squeak in.

Counting chickens and all that
 
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bigfatronssba

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #18
I've gone back to 1981. That is when 3 pts for a win come in, so its hard to compare before that.

Since then, 8 clubs managed to be on at least 40 points after 17 games. Every single one was promoted.
 
Reactions: itsabuzzard, BerksSB, Sky Blue Pete and 1 other person

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #19
bigfatronssba said:
I've gone back to 1981. That is when 3 pts for a win come in, so its hard to compare before that.

Since then, 8 clubs managed to be on at least 40 points after 17 games. Every single one was promoted.
Click to expand...

Who need ChatGPT? Great work
 
Reactions: EalingSB and bigfatronssba

Mild-Mannered Janitor

Kindest Bloke on CCFC / Maker of CCFC Dreams
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #20
Southampton and Ipswich will both get close to 90 points, we have to be above that this year.
 
Reactions: Hincha and Sky Blue Pete

bigfatronssba

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #21
shmmeee said:
Who need ChatGPT? Great work
Click to expand...
I tried to get ChatGPT to do it but it just turned into an argument
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #22
shmmeee said:
Also according to AI no team 45 points or more at game 20 has failed to be promoted. 5 from the next 3?
Click to expand...
Fuck it, 9. I can’t see us losing atm and it will come, just as it did v Wrexham…
 
Reactions: Bernie Rhodes Nose

bigfatronssba

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #23
Mild-Mannered Janitor said:
Southampton and Ipswich will both get close to 90 points, we have to be above that this year.
Click to expand...

Southampton will need 2.27 points per game to reach 90. That is a big ask. It would 105 points over a season
 
Reactions: HadjiChippo and skybluelee

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #24
Mild-Mannered Janitor said:
Southampton and Ipswich will both get close to 90 points, we have to be above that this year.
Click to expand...
Southampton will need some record breaking form to achieve that. Which is possible of course
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #25
Mucca Mad Boys said:
Fuck it, 9. I can’t see us losing atm and it will come, just as it did v Wrexham…
Click to expand...
5 games between now and Christmas Day. W3, D1 L1, 50 points and a big fat turkey on the 25th
 

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #26
Mild-Mannered Janitor said:
Southampton and Ipswich will both get close to 90 points, we have to be above that this year.
Click to expand...
For Southampton to get to 90 points, they need to average 2.27 points per game for 29 games. That’s a bit optimistic, for context, we’re tracking in 2.35 right now.

Ipswich need 2.2 whereas we need to average little over 1.72.
 
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Gint11

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #27
bawtryneal said:
Appreciate stating the obvious but the two games against both Ipswich and Southampton will define our destiny.
Click to expand...
Which we also said about Stoke away and then Middlesborough away. For now, the next and only challenge is Charlton
 
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clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #28
Mucca Mad Boys said:
For Southampton to get to 90 points, they need to average 2.27 points per game for 29 games. That’s a bit optimistic, for context, we’re tracking in 2.35 right now.

Ipswich need 2.2 whereas we need to average little over 1.72.
Click to expand...

They've won 3 on the bounce under their new manager but it's far too early to say foe sure that will continue.
 
Reactions: Londonccfcfan

Londonccfcfan

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #29
bawtryneal said:
Appreciate stating the obvious but the two games against both Ipswich and Southampton will define our destiny.
Click to expand...
I dont think they do. I get where your coming from.

But we will still be top after we play them and ahead of them.

The games that will define our season will be the HOME games vs Southampton and Ipswich.

By January 4th.

We would have played:

Boro A - 3 pts
Stoke A - 3 pts
Millwall A - 3 pts
Preston A -
Ipswich A -
Soton A -
Birm A -

Thats basically the Top 8 played away by 4th Jan.
 
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SeaSeeEffCee

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #30
clint van damme said:
They've won 3 on the bounce under their new manager but it's far too early to say foe sure that will continue.
Click to expand...
Might end up being a good thing that their caretaker is doing so well. Undoubtedly they’ll give him the full time job now but will he have the managerial experience and ability to navigate an automatics challenge later in the season?
 
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clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #31
I still think if we get 7 from our next 3 away games (big ask), then we will need a disaster not to get autos
 
Reactions: Sky Blue Pete, Londonccfcfan and SIR ERNIE

itsabuzzard

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #32
bigfatronssba said:
I tried to get ChatGPT to do it but it just turned into an argument
Click to expand...
Who won?
 

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #33
SeaSeeEffCee said:
Might end up being a good thing that their caretaker is doing so well. Undoubtedly they’ll give him the full time job now but will he have the managerial experience and ability to navigate an automatics challenge later in the season?
Click to expand...
They were massively underperforming their xG so this could well just be the data catching up anyway.
 
Reactions: Mild-Mannered Janitor

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #34
clint van damme said:
They've won 3 on the bounce under their new manager but it's far too early to say foe sure that will continue.
Click to expand...
66 points is to get to 90 points is 22 wins from 29. It’s technically doable but it’s not likely imo.

Without getting too carried away, they beat QPR, Sheff W, Charlton and Leicester. The manner of the last 2 wins were genuinely impressive and given the xG table, I believe that Southampton will be there or thereabouts come the end of the season.

In the same period we’ve beat 2nd place in the table away from home twice. That’s objectively more impressive.
 
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bigfatronssba

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 26, 2025
  • #35
itsabuzzard said:
Who won?
Click to expand...
I was the one that stormed off in a temper so I guess it did
 
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