3 Areas to improve next season (1 Viewer)

SAJ · Apr 19, 2022

Robins has improved individuals year on year.
3 areas that could make a big difference without signing anyone.
Vik’s conversion rate is the poorest in the top 15 goal scorers in the league this season. Rate is only 18%. The top players were around the 25 - 30%. The would equate to an additional 10 goals from the same amount of shots.

Godden’s fitness, last two seasons only played 23 matches each season. Yet his return is 29% for shots taken. If he could play 30 matches with s similar shot rate and return pet game that’s an extra 4 goals 35 matches gets him to an extra 7 goals for the season.

3rd area is saves made.
Think we all agree Moore is an improvement on past keepers but his shots saved is the 7th worst in the league. He is saving 65% of shots. We actually have had the 6th least amount of shots at our goal all season. Top keepers are saving 78%. That would equate to not conceding roughly 9 goals a season.

If Robins and the training staff could improve on those 3 areas we could score about 14 more goals and concede 9 less. That would be sufficient I think to get us right up in the top 3.

ccfc1234 · Apr 19, 2022

Interesting stats. I think you can work on Vik to be more clinical. I am not sure the club will be able to ensure Godden stays fit or maybe to a lesser extent ensure Moore keeps a higher percentage of shots out (like the 1st yesterday) quite as easily.

Frostie · Apr 20, 2022

Hmmm... I get your point but need to put a bit of context to the stats.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment on Gyökeres. Ironically considering how many goals he has scored, finishing is definitely one of the weaker aspects of his game at present.

In terms of Shot Conversion Rate though, where did you get the numbers from out of interest?
I have Gyökeres at 12% & Godden 17% from Total Shots Taken. Mitrovic is 18% & Solanke 17%.
Either way, there is similar flaws as with Save % though as we're making no allowance for the difficulty of opportunities.

Save % is widely accepted as being the most unreliable statistic in football, it's practically meaningless in all honesty. It takes no account at all into the quantity or, more importantly, difficulty of the shots faced. You could have a keeper pull off 3 unbelievable saves in a game but be beaten by a penalty vs a keeper who has 2 shots all game, both straight at him, from 35 yards with the same power as if they'd been kicked by a toddler - the 2nd keeper will have a better Save %.

We can calculate Goals Prevented as well as how well Goalkeepers are protected though by looking at the average xG of the shots they face.
The below data is a few games old now but Moore is doing pretty much as expected - in general he's saving what you'd expect him to.
As you can see, someone like James Shea comes out of this looking pretty bad but he's in the Top 5 for Save %.

harvey098 · Apr 20, 2022

Frostie said:
Hmmm... I get your point but need to put a bit of context to the stats.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment on Gyökeres. Ironically considering how many goals he has scored, finishing is definitely one of the weaker aspects of his game at present.

In terms of Shot Conversion Rate though, where did you get the numbers from out of interest?
I have Gyökeres at 12% & Godden 17% from Total Shots Taken. Mitrovic is 18% & Solanke 17%.
Either way, there is similar flaws as with Save % though as we're making no allowance for the difficulty of opportunities.

Save % is widely accepted as being the most unreliable statistic in football, it's practically meaningless in all honesty. It takes no account at all into the quantity or, more importantly, difficulty of the shots faced. You could have a keeper pull off 3 unbelievable saves in a game but be beaten by a penalty vs a keeper who has 2 shots all game, both straight at him, from 35 yards with the same power as if they'd been kicked by a toddler - the 2nd keeper will have a better Save %.

We can calculate Goals Prevented as well as how well Goalkeepers are protected though by looking at the average xG of the shots they face.
The below data is a few games old now but Moore is doing pretty much as expected - in general he's saving what you'd expect him to.
As you can see, someone like James Shea comes out of this looking pretty bad but he's in the Top 5 for Save %.

View attachment 24455

Interesting that. Moore definitely gives us an air of security in terms of his handling and commanding his area etc. In that aspect he’s been really solid all season.

There’s been a quite a few goals where you think “should Moore be saving that?” But not too many where you think “Moore should be saving that”, if that makes sense. I think for where we are as a club I’m not sure we could expect much better than Moore.

SBAndy · Apr 20, 2022

Frostie said:
Hmmm... I get your point but need to put a bit of context to the stats.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment on Gyökeres. Ironically considering how many goals he has scored, finishing is definitely one of the weaker aspects of his game at present.

In terms of Shot Conversion Rate though, where did you get the numbers from out of interest?
I have Gyökeres at 12% & Godden 17% from Total Shots Taken. Mitrovic is 18% & Solanke 17%.
Either way, there is similar flaws as with Save % though as we're making no allowance for the difficulty of opportunities.

Save % is widely accepted as being the most unreliable statistic in football, it's practically meaningless in all honesty. It takes no account at all into the quantity or, more importantly, difficulty of the shots faced. You could have a keeper pull off 3 unbelievable saves in a game but be beaten by a penalty vs a keeper who has 2 shots all game, both straight at him, from 35 yards with the same power as if they'd been kicked by a toddler - the 2nd keeper will have a better Save %.

We can calculate Goals Prevented as well as how well Goalkeepers are protected though by looking at the average xG of the shots they face.
The below data is a few games old now but Moore is doing pretty much as expected - in general he's saving what you'd expect him to.
As you can see, someone like James Shea comes out of this looking pretty bad but he's in the Top 5 for Save %.

View attachment 24455

Interesting stats. I spent last night wondering whether we may be back in the market for Matija Sarkic in the summer but he’s not come out of that brilliantly. I know there’s more problematic areas but I just got the feeling that Moore and Sarkic was the long-term plan after both were linked last summer.

Sky Blue Harry H · Apr 20, 2022

Was convinced I was going to read ..... defence, midfield and attack !

Gint11 · Apr 20, 2022

Love Godden but he’s becoming more and more injury prone which is concerning. If we get a full season from him, he bags 20 easy though. We need another striker in, in case he struggles with injuries again.

stevefloyd · Apr 20, 2022

I think its probably time we tried to get some money back for Godden, when he is fit he scores but is painfully slow and at this stage of his career not going to have many more seasons, micro managing would be better for him but we all see when he comes back from injury it takes a few games for him to 'get back at it' so the micro managing thing isn't really a viable option, he has been great and scored some important goals but sadly time and injuries are against him.

PUSB-We_are_going_up · Apr 20, 2022

Frostie said:
Hmmm... I get your point but need to put a bit of context to the stats.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment on Gyökeres. Ironically considering how many goals he has scored, finishing is definitely one of the weaker aspects of his game at present.

In terms of Shot Conversion Rate though, where did you get the numbers from out of interest?
I have Gyökeres at 12% & Godden 17% from Total Shots Taken. Mitrovic is 18% & Solanke 17%.
Either way, there is similar flaws as with Save % though as we're making no allowance for the difficulty of opportunities.

Save % is widely accepted as being the most unreliable statistic in football, it's practically meaningless in all honesty. It takes no account at all into the quantity or, more importantly, difficulty of the shots faced. You could have a keeper pull off 3 unbelievable saves in a game but be beaten by a penalty vs a keeper who has 2 shots all game, both straight at him, from 35 yards with the same power as if they'd been kicked by a toddler - the 2nd keeper will have a better Save %.

We can calculate Goals Prevented as well as how well Goalkeepers are protected though by looking at the average xG of the shots they face.
The below data is a few games old now but Moore is doing pretty much as expected - in general he's saving what you'd expect him to.
As you can see, someone like James Shea comes out of this looking pretty bad but he's in the Top 5 for Save %.

View attachment 24455

Agreed (save %) if you look at the goals Moore has conceded they have been difficult ones to save its not like he is letting in poor goals, he is a great goalkeeper and he is with us because he still has something to improve on

Sick Boy · Apr 20, 2022

It’s amazing that there’s no mention of the defence which is the most urgent area to improve upon.

shmmeee · Apr 20, 2022

Defence defence and defence for me.

mark82 · Apr 20, 2022

Sick Boy said:
It’s amazing that there’s no mention of the defence which is the most urgent area to improve upon.

My take on the save percentage stat is that it's the quality of opportunity we are affording the opposition. How many times do we allow attackers to run through on goal behind the defence, and the number of free headers we concede. We may not give up a huge amount of shots, but those we do give up are generally easier chances.

SAJ · Apr 20, 2022

Frostie said:
Hmmm... I get your point but need to put a bit of context to the stats.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment on Gyökeres. Ironically considering how many goals he has scored, finishing is definitely one of the weaker aspects of his game at present.

In terms of Shot Conversion Rate though, where did you get the numbers from out of interest?
I have Gyökeres at 12% & Godden 17% from Total Shots Taken. Mitrovic is 18% & Solanke 17%.
Either way, there is similar flaws as with Save % though as we're making no allowance for the difficulty of opportunities.

Save % is widely accepted as being the most unreliable statistic in football, it's practically meaningless in all honesty. It takes no account at all into the quantity or, more importantly, difficulty of the shots faced. You could have a keeper pull off 3 unbelievable saves in a game but be beaten by a penalty vs a keeper who has 2 shots all game, both straight at him, from 35 yards with the same power as if they'd been kicked by a toddler - the 2nd keeper will have a better Save %.

We can calculate Goals Prevented as well as how well Goalkeepers are protected though by looking at the average xG of the shots they face.
The below data is a few games old now but Moore is doing pretty much as expected - in general he's saving what you'd expect him to.
As you can see, someone like James Shea comes out of this looking pretty bad but he's in the Top 5 for Save %.

View attachment 24455

Used two places bbc stats and fbref .com
I accept there may be better places but one would think irrespective of which site is used to count you would expect them to be counted in the same way for that site, which would certainly in theory suggest the measures are the same across the 24 teams.

Moff · Apr 20, 2022

shmmeee said:
Defence defence and defence for me.

Definetely…..especially in need of some pace, pace and pace!

fernandopartridge · Apr 20, 2022

Moff said:
Definetely…..especially in need of some pace, pace and pace!

Aggression first ideally with pace

Sky Blue Pete · Apr 20, 2022

SAJ said:
Robins has improved individuals year on year.
3 areas that could make a big difference without signing anyone.
Vik’s conversion rate is the poorest in the top 15 goal scorers in the league this season. Rate is only 18%. The top players were around the 25 - 30%. The would equate to an additional 10 goals from the same amount of shots.

Godden’s fitness, last two seasons only played 23 matches each season. Yet his return is 29% for shots taken. If he could play 30 matches with s similar shot rate and return pet game that’s an extra 4 goals 35 matches gets him to an extra 7 goals for the season.

3rd area is saves made.
Think we all agree Moore is an improvement on past keepers but his shots saved is the 7th worst in the league. He is saving 65% of shots. We actually have had the 6th least amount of shots at our goal all season. Top keepers are saving 78%. That would equate to not conceding roughly 9 goals a season.

If Robins and the training staff could improve on those 3 areas we could score about 14 more goals and concede 9 less. That would be sufficient I think to get us right up in the top 3.

Great post. The injury one is difficult to coach the others it would be about recognising what can be done to change the outcome and that absolutely is about coaching

saveitforthewombles · Apr 20, 2022

1. Goals from midfield - Allen's output in terms of assists and goals isn't where it should be given a relatively free role going forward (in some games at least)
2. Defensive lapses - we concede soft goals. Set pieces are a concern. We obviously look better when the first choice 3 CBs are available as bidwell isnt a LCB. That said even on saturday I think we miss a bit of aggression/know-how when McFadzean doesnt play. Case in point - Solanke's second goal...drag him down. There's two defenders back. Take the yellow card and move on. I'd say the same about West Brom's goal earlier in the season - that time it was Sheaf who got wrong side of the guy who slipped it through. Clip the man, take the yellow card.
3. Striker - Walker isn't up to standard and I'm not sure Godden will last a full season as first choice. Vik needs a foil - Waghorn showed signs early on but has also struggled with form and fitness.

Obviously depends who goes - JCS, Maatsen and any combination of Gus, Vik, O'Hare.

CDK · Apr 20, 2022

Gint11 said:
Love Godden but he’s becoming more and more injury prone which is concerning. If we get a full season from him, he bags 20 easy though. We need another striker in, in case he struggles with injuries again.

That's the one thing with godden he always finds a new injury I know it's not self inflicted but another year older next season more games on top of each other because of the world cup
I worry for us and him.

Moff · Apr 20, 2022

fernandopartridge said:
Aggression first ideally with pace

That would be perfect, just feel we lack pace and someone to mop up the inevitable mistakes that our defence seem to make…but mixed with a crunching tackle would be great!

Sky Blue Harry H · Apr 20, 2022

Moff said:
That would be perfect, just feel we lack pace and someone to mop up the inevitable mistakes that our defence seem to make…but mixed with a crunching tackle would be great!

Crunching tackles are becoming a thing of the past. OK on muddy pitches, but a free kick conceded or injury incurred on many occasions (and not always on the opponent) on the mainly decent pitches.

jimmyhillsfanclub · Apr 20, 2022

A monster of a centre back.
Way more shooting practice for Gyok & OHare.
Dabo to watch videos of the old Dabo.

Sky Blue Harry H · Apr 20, 2022

jimmyhillsfanclub said:
A monster of a centre back.
Way more shooting practice for Gyok & OHare.
Dabo to watch videos of the old Dabo.

Re: Dabo - it's just been him recovering from his injuries. Watching videos of himself from before his injuries isn't really going to be of much use?!

Malaka · Apr 20, 2022

We ain't going nowhere without a solid defence. I read somewhere that teams create less chances against us but convert more. Also we create a lot of chances but don't convert them. I'm feeling good about next season as Hamer, O'Hare, Vic, Sheaf, Hyam, Dabo and Godden will have the experience of another year in the championship which will be a massive benefit. I really think we can have a serious challenge next season. Need a solid centre back (not McFadz, his legs have gone), a replacement for Kelly and hopefully we can sign Maatsen and Clarke-Salter.

Bad Boy · Apr 20, 2022

We need a solid spine.

A mountain of a central defender who is good with the ball at his feet, wins aerial duels, weighs in with 5-7 goals a season, quick and won't be bullied.

A midfield general. Experienced, cunning, skilful, a born organiser, master of the dark arts with the ref in his back pocket from the 1st minute.

A goalscorer. 20+ every season. No crocks.

Where the f**k we get them from and how much they'd cost is anyones guess.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Apr 20, 2022

1. Centre defence. Probably need two as we need to look at a successor for Fadz.
2. Left wing back
3. Goalscoring midfielder

skybluetony176 · Apr 20, 2022

I can’t help but feel we were unlucky with Godden this season. He was saying that he felt better than he had previously after recovering from the same injury, then his appendix burst missing 6 weeks IIRC, his match fitness was lost. I would question if he’d been fully match fit would his latest injury had have happened. Not saying we rushed him back but from what he was saying earlier on in the season he was feeling better than ever and it was down to better recovery work. Had that work been undone due to being laid up with appendicitis?

CovBrummie94 · Apr 20, 2022

jimmyhillsfanclub said:
A monster of a centre back.
Way more shooting practice for Gyok & OHare.
Dabo to watch videos of the old Dabo.

It really felt like Dabo was getting back to his best before his injury at Blues. Hopefully he can find that form and stay injury free next season.

Esoterica · Apr 20, 2022

Defence would be the priority for me and I think we need 2 if not 3 more CBs.

1) Fadz needs a long term replacement
2) We need a left sided CB
Rose and Hyam should be fighting it out for one spot and the other providing the first change on a matchday if needed.

3) An upgrade on our development squad back up, as players like Drysdale don't seem to have kicked on.

CovBrummie94 · Apr 20, 2022

Malaka said:
We ain't going nowhere without a solid defence. I read somewhere that teams create less chances against us but convert more. Also we create a lot of chances but don't convert them. I'm feeling good about next season as Hamer, O'Hare, Vic, Sheaf, Hyam, Dabo and Godden will have the experience of another year in the championship which will be a massive benefit. I really think we can have a serious challenge next season. Need a solid centre back (not McFadz, his legs have gone), a replacement for Kelly and hopefully we can sign Maatsen and Clarke-Salter.

Not sure either Chelsea loanee will return. Chelsea will probably want Maatsen to challenge himself somewhere else and will we go after JCS given he will probably want a tidy wage and has only played 28 of the 42 league games since he's been with us this season

Bad Boy · Apr 20, 2022

CovBrummie94 said:
It really felt like Dabo was getting back to his best before his injury at Blues. Hopefully he can find that form and stay injury free next season.

I thought Dabo was very close to mom away at Fulham.

SkyBlueSoul · Apr 20, 2022

What areas? Mainly that big green one out there! (To quote Gordon Strachan)

PUSB-We_are_going_up · Apr 21, 2022

bad boy said:
We need a solid spine.

A mountain of a central defender who is good with the ball at his feet, wins aerial duels, weighs in with 5-7 goals a season, quick and won't be bullied.

A midfield general. Experienced, cunning, skilful, a born organiser, master of the dark arts with the ref in his back pocket from the 1st minute.

A goalscorer. 20+ every season. No crocks.

Where the f**k we get them from and how much they'd cost is anyones guess.

Virgil Van Dijk, Jordan Henderson, Sadio Mané probably about 2m maximum

PUSB-We_are_going_up · Apr 21, 2022

CovBrummie94 said:
Not sure either Chelsea loanee will return. Chelsea will probably want Maatsen to challenge himself somewhere else and will we go after JCS given he will probably want a tidy wage and has only played 28 of the 42 league games since he's been with us this season

JCS has been injured twice this season so he cant have played all 42 anyway which he probably would have if he was never injured

WGABSOOS · Apr 21, 2022

PUSB-We_are_going_up said:
JCS has been injured twice this season so he cant have played all 42 anyway which he probably would have if he was never injured

I think thats the point he was making

PUSB-We_are_going_up · Apr 21, 2022

WGABSOOS said:
I think thats the point he was making

I think he was trying to say JCS would want more game time, and forgot the earlier injury which had him in the sidelines

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