14 win countdown to promotion (10 Viewers)

edgy said:

They don't have to win 5 in a row. And we don't have to lose 5 in a row. They need to win 5 more than us over the course of the remaining games.

And that is not as unthinkable as some are making out.

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I agree, not unthinkable. However, 25 games to play, suppose we win 12 of them (not even half). Other sides then would need to win 17/25 which is not much room for error.

edgy said:

They don't have to win 5 in a row. And we don't have to lose 5 in a row. They need to win 5 more than us over the course of the remaining games.

And that is not as unthinkable as some are making out.

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It also isn't as likely as some are making out.

We've lost 2 out of 21. If we were to lose 5 out of 25 it would mean the other side losing none out of 25. Southampton have now hit better form but have lost as many in the last 4 games as we have all season. It's a big ask.

AFCCOVENTRY said:

How many home games do we have left?

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13

AFCCOVENTRY said:

How many home games do we have left?

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After Southampton away next game we have 13 out of 24 at home. If our home form continues we most probably only need a win or 2 out of the remaining away games for promotion.

AFCCOVENTRY said:

1) 14 more wins and 1 draw and 10 lost or
2) 13 wins and 4 draws and 8 lost or
3) 12 wins and 7 draws and 6 lost

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If we lose to Southampton, which is entirely possible, we will have won 14 out of 22.

Looking at your first option we would then need to win 14 out of the remaining 24. It is reasonably foreseeable that we could fall short I have a feeling we might draw more in the remainder of the season, which could be the difference

Let’s just concentrate on us and take 1 game at a time

edgy said:

They don't have to win 5 in a row. And we don't have to lose 5 in a row. They need to win 5 more than us over the course of the remaining games.

And that is not as unthinkable as some are making out.

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I think people are looking at this the wrong way around. If we don't get to at least mid to high 80 points we are unlikely to go up automatically. That's the challenge. I know people are talking about high 70's could be enough this year but I don't agree with that. If we win another 14 like the thread title suggests, we are highly unlikely to lose the other 11, so there will be points from draws to add on. Any team currently 3rd down would then need to win at least 18 and get 1 more draw than us to make up for the goal difference. For them to do that, it would possibly mean not losing another game.

HuckerbyDublinWhelan said:

No it means I expect 3 teams to get in the mid 80s as minimum.

Ipswich and Southampton can easily go on big winning streaks, Middlesbrough themselves are course for 90.

we’ve shown that 50 points is doable over 21 games. Southampton and Ipswich getting 55/56 points from now isn’t out of the question

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Both of Southampton's GK's are not of a very good standard. Their defence isn't much better. They have a lack of goalscorers. This isn't a good base to go on winning runs like we have. They are on a good run now but have lost 2 of their last 4 games including the last game against Norwich who are still in 23rd.

Ipswich have the players but don't seem to have a system for them. 3-1 loss to Leicester last game and 3 wins from their last 6. Plenty of pressure on Leicester but 2 shots on target.

Of course anything side can go on a run. But the 2 most likeliest sides to go on a run are the two sides that have been consistent so far. That's us and Middlesborough.