14 win countdown to promotion (35 Viewers)

AFCCOVENTRY · 2025-12-17T10:22:18+0000

25 games left

A requirement for 1.72ppg to get to 90 points will be enough to get the autos.

Approx what we need in the last 25:

1) 14 more wins and 1 draw and 10 lost or
2) 13 wins and 4 draws and 8 lost or
3) 12 wins and 7 draws and 6 lost

The countdown is on!

alexccfc99 · 2025-12-17T10:25:42+0000

I think a bit less than 90 points could do us but that hinges on whether Ipswich find some consistent form

I do not think PNE and Millwall will sustain keeping in touch with the Top 2, infact I am a little bit miffed as to how Millwall are doing so well as every time I have watched them they have looked really poor

I believe there is a possibility where us and Middlesbrough start to run away with it

skybluelee · 2025-12-17T10:35:42+0000

3) should be 12 W, 6 D, 7 L

AFCCOVENTRY · 2025-12-17T10:50:04+0000

skybluelee said:
3) should be 12 W, 6 D, 7 L

Don’t think it is. The magic total we need over 25 games is 43 points to get to 90.

AFCCOVENTRY · 2025-12-17T10:54:38+0000

1) Our current PPG is 2.23

2) Boro 2
3) Preston 1.66
4) Millwall 1.66
5) Ipswich 1.61
6) Hull 1.61
7) Stoke 1.57
8) Foxes 1.47
9) QPR 1.47
10) Saints 1.42

Londonccfcfan · 2025-12-17T10:55:29+0000

87 will be more than enough..with a good GD to boot.

Cant see many teams getting. Close to that as its a very competitive league apart from Shef Wed.

SkyBlueChris · 2025-12-17T11:00:21+0000

AFCCOVENTRY said:
Don’t think it is. The magic total we need over 25 games is 43 points to get to 90.

Number 1 and 2 only gets us 42 points!

Brighton Sky Blue · 2025-12-17T11:23:11+0000

AFCCOVENTRY said:
1) Our current PPG is 2.23

2) Boro 2
3) Preston 1.66
4) Millwall 1.66
5) Ipswich 1.61
6) Hull 1.61
7) Stoke 1.57
8) Foxes 1.47
9) QPR 1.47
10) Saints 1.42

When you look at it that way it's two standout teams with a very closely bunched chasing pack a fair way behind.

skybluelee · 2025-12-17T11:24:43+0000

skybluelee said:
3) should be 12 W, 6 D, 7 L

1 and 2 are wrong then

skybluelee · 2025-12-17T11:34:17+0000

Middlesbrough are in decent form. Lets see if they can maintain it. Ipswich might hit proper form over an extended period although they have been dogshit way from home recently.

Leicester should get their deduction to make them zero threat and Southampton would have to be exceptional for 25 games to get anywhere close to us..

The rest will drop off I have no doubt about it. Millwall, Stoke, Preston etc are not averaging anywhere close to 2ppg from here.

This is our moment. As long as we don't royally shit the bed then its difficult to see how we don't go up.

sc1940 · 2025-12-17T11:50:52+0000

We obviously could win all our home games and at least half our away games, but looking at it as negatively as I possibly can, I'm expecting this as a minimum.
Home: I think we should win against Swansea, Millwall, Oxford, Stoke, Preston, Derby, Wednesday, Portsmouth, Wrexham, and draw 2 of the other 4
Away: I'm expecting wins against Charlton, Norwich, Swansea, Blackburn, and 4 draws.
If my maths is correct that should be 92 points.

SonofErnie · 2025-12-17T12:05:04+0000

We achieved 13 wins and 4 draws from the first 18 games. Can that be repeated to take us to (effective) promotion by 39 games? Or is that over optimistic?

sc1940 · 2025-12-17T12:07:33+0000

SonofErnie said:
We achieved 13 wins and 4 draws from the first 18 games. Can that be repeated to take us to (effective) promotion by 39 games? Or is that over optimistic?

It's optimistic but very possible as we have already proven

Evo1883 · 2025-12-17T12:18:17+0000

Im hoping the season will have a kind of 21/22 feel to it where 83 was enough for promotion for the top 2

skybluecam · 2025-12-17T12:30:24+0000

At the current ppg rate 77 points would be enough for autos. Opta is predicting 75 might be enough, given Preston and Millwall are outperforming their underlying stats.

To get to 77 would be 30 from our next 25 games, 1.2 points a game. Something silly like W9 D3 L13.

I think it'll probably be more than that, but don't think 90 will be needed. Might only be 82-83. Lowest ever for 2nd place is 79 I believe?

wingy · 2025-12-17T12:34:42+0000

skybluecam said:
At the current ppg rate 77 points would be enough for autos. Opta is predicting 75 might be enough, given Preston and Millwall are outperforming their underlying stats.

To get to 77 would be 30 from our next 25 games, 1.2 points a game. Something silly like W9 D3 L13.

I think it'll probably be more than that, but don't think 90 will be needed. Might only be 82-83. Lowest ever for 2nd place is 79 I believe?

Yes but that's just the raw numbers, it's not us and I sincerely hope that is not, Game state across the season is fairly crucial?

KenilworthSkyBlue · 2025-12-17T13:03:25+0000

skybluecam said:
At the current ppg rate 77 points would be enough for autos. Opta is predicting 75 might be enough, given Preston and Millwall are outperforming their underlying stats.

To get to 77 would be 30 from our next 25 games, 1.2 points a game. Something silly like W9 D3 L13.

I think it'll probably be more than that, but don't think 90 will be needed. Might only be 82-83. Lowest ever for 2nd place is 79 I believe?

Yeah based on PPG I'd be astounded if 90 was needed. None of the current top 6 bar us and Boro have shown they can go on a serious run.

A club within the top 6 currently would have to win both of their games up until Game Week 24 then get 50 points across the remaining half season to reach that total.

Which means it's unlikely we'll need 14 wins. Probably 12 wins and a draw from the remaining 25 games would do it.

wingy · 2025-12-17T13:08:17+0000

Why would we settle for this scenario, when the manager wants to get promoted with excellence, okay he might have to do it the other way, but why would he, surely he wants the squad the best it can so some of them carry us on next season?

wingy · 2025-12-17T13:09:43+0000

Too much of settling for mediocrity and a a lack of respect for the player's involved IMO.

KenilworthSkyBlue · 2025-12-17T13:16:50+0000

wingy said:
Why would we settle for this scenario, when the manager wants to get promoted with excellence, okay he might have to do it the other way, but why would he, surely he wants the squad the best it can so some of them carry us on next season?

No one has said anything about settling for mediocrity?

It's pointing out the likely minimum points needed which for us means a lot of leeway between now and the end of the season.

skybluecam · 2025-12-17T13:42:19+0000

wingy said:
Too much of settling for mediocrity and a a lack of respect for the player's involved IMO.

We're still too far out to be thinking about points tallies or what the other teams are doing anyway.

Just got to focus on beating what's in front of us and racking up the points - then come the last 5-10 games of the season we can do all the maths.

clint van damme · 2025-12-17T13:43:21+0000

skybluecam said:
- then come the last 5-10 games of the season we can do all the maths.

We might be promoted by then!

alexccfc99 · 2025-12-17T13:54:06+0000

Our last 6 fixtures

Hull (A) - Probably the toughest

Sheffield W (H) - Will be dead and buried by then

Blackburn (A) - Will probably be playing for nothing at the time, and we have a scarily good record against them

Pompey (H) - I expect they will be scrapping for their lives, a poor side who I think will be in a relegation scrap

Wrexham (H) - Will probably be playing for nothing

Watford (A) - See above

I think if we come out of that Hull game on Easter Monday in the Top 2 we will get over the line

Mucca Mad Boys · 2025-12-17T13:55:38+0000

Evo1883 said:
Im hoping the season will have a kind of 21/22 feel to it where 83 was enough for promotion for the top 2 View attachment 47749

On the current trajectory, that’ll likely be the approximate outcome. Although if our home form remains as strong as has been under Lampard, we should really hit 95+ points.

Our away games in 2026 should be mostly plain-ish sailing as we’d have played most of the top teams away. After Birmingham, the only teams with good records at home are:
- WBA
- Watford
- Hull

Aside from that, teams like QPR, Bristol City and Sheff U are surprisingly bad at home. With 12 away games remaining, 6-8 wins is v doable.

It comes down to our home form because we’ve got more or less the entire top half at home. Which is a significant advantage imo.

Mucca Mad Boys · 2025-12-17T13:57:51+0000

alexccfc99 said:
Our last 6 fixtures

Hull (A) - Probably the toughest

Sheffield W (H) - Will be dead and buried by then

Blackburn (A) - Will probably be playing for nothing at the time, and we have a scarily good record against them

Pompey (H) - I expect they will be scrapping for their lives, a poor side who I think will be in a relegation scrap

Wrexham (H) - Will probably be playing for nothing

Watford (A) - See above

I think if we come out of that Hull game on Easter Monday in the Top 2 we will get over the line

That’s a kind schedule. After Birmingham away, we should really put together a solid run of away wins because only West Brom is a stand out at home between Blues and Hull away in 2026.

Watford, hopefully we’re getting the guard of honour and the result is academic but their season may have been derailed by AFCON by then.

Brighton Sky Blue · 2025-12-17T14:01:27+0000

Mucca Mad Boys said:
That’s a kind schedule. After Birmingham away, we should really put together a solid run of away wins because only West Brom is a stand out at home between Blues and Hull away in 2026.

Watford, hopefully we’re getting the guard of honour and the result is academic but their season may have been derailed by AFCON by then.

I get it's early days, but Norwich look a very different beast at home under their new manager, coupled with it being a Monday night fixture now.

KenilworthSkyBlue · 2025-12-17T14:02:27+0000

Mucca Mad Boys said:
That’s a kind schedule. After Birmingham away, we should really put together a solid run of away wins because only West Brom is a stand out at home between Blues and Hull away in 2026.

Watford, hopefully we’re getting the guard of honour and the result is academic but their season may have been derailed by AFCON by then.

Don't think AFCON will affect Watford as much as previously thought.

Louza has been left out of Morocco's squad.

sc1940 · 2025-12-17T14:07:22+0000

Evo1883 said:
Im hoping the season will have a kind of 21/22 feel to it where 83 was enough for promotion for the top 2 View attachment 47749

The problem with this is, Bournemouth could have got promoted with 83 points but the other clubs below 2nd needed 89

Mucca Mad Boys · 2025-12-17T14:14:13+0000

Brighton Sky Blue said:
I get it's early days, but Norwich look a very different beast at home under their new manager, coupled with it being a Monday night fixture now.

Perhaps. At this moment his record is 2-2-2 and their only wins at home are against QPR & Southampton who have averaged 1.2 points per game away from home.

They’re ones to watch but I’m not stressing about Norwich just yet. They’ve got a difficult stretch of home games going into our game; Charlton, Watford and Stoke before they play us. Some difficult away games too.

I’m not buying the Southampton hype just yet, they’ve lost two away games under the new manager and whilst their home form is has been great… I’m not worried about them entering the automatic promotion race at this moment.

Brighton Sky Blue · 2025-12-17T14:15:10+0000

Evo1883 said:
Im hoping the season will have a kind of 21/22 feel to it where 83 was enough for promotion for the top 2 View attachment 47749

Have said for a while that season looks like a good yardstick for this one.

Even if we lose the next 3 we’ll have as much as Bournemouth after 24 games.

CovRes · 2025-12-17T14:16:04+0000

If everyone's form over the last 4 games was repeated over the remainder of the season we'd finish 2nd. Although I can't see Middlesbrough getting 3ppg for the rest of the season. But it would give us this.
Middlesbrough - 117 (3ppg)
Coventry City - 91 (1.75ppg)
Hull City - 90 (2.25ppg)
Preston - 85 (2ppg)
Millwall - 79 (1.75ppg)
Ipswich - 78 (1.75ppg)

Based on the last 6 games
Coventry City - 101 (2.17ppg)
Middlesbrough - 96 (2.17ppg)
QPR - 81 (2ppg)
Southampton - 80 (2ppg)
Sheffield United - 77 (2.17ppg)
Millwall - 77 (1.67ppg)

Brighton Sky Blue · 2025-12-17T14:17:21+0000

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Perhaps. At this moment his record is 2-2-2 and their only wins at home are against QPR & Southampton who have averaged 1.2 points per game away from home.

They’re ones to watch but I’m not stressing about Norwich just yet. They’ve got a difficult stretch of home games going into our game; Charlton, Watford and Stoke before they play us. Some difficult away games too.

I’m not buying the Southampton hype just yet, they’ve lost two away games under the new manager and whilst their home form is has been great… I’m not worried about them entering the automatic promotion race at this moment.

There’s the results but there’s also the performances which have looked much better since Manning was sacked.

HuckerbyDublinWhelan · 2025-12-17T14:19:42+0000

skybluecam said:
At the current ppg rate 77 points would be enough for autos. Opta is predicting 75 might be enough, given Preston and Millwall are outperforming their underlying stats.

To get to 77 would be 30 from our next 25 games, 1.2 points a game. Something silly like W9 D3 L13.

I think it'll probably be more than that, but don't think 90 will be needed. Might only be 82-83. Lowest ever for 2nd place is 79 I believe?

way too low. The last 10 seasons suggests the top 2 teams get at least 90 points. I've been going with 91 being the target.

Mucca Mad Boys · 2025-12-17T14:23:51+0000

Brighton Sky Blue said:
There’s the results but there’s also the performances which have looked much better since Manning was sacked.

Things could literally only get better for them. It’s a difficult away game but unlike last year, I think we’ll go there and give them a good game and get positive result. This is 100% a game we need to get winning, same with Charlton. Southampton and Birmingham are games I’d love to win but a draw is a decent point.

Brighton Sky Blue · 2025-12-17T14:26:03+0000

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Things could literally only get better for them. It’s a difficult away game but unlike last year, I think we’ll go there and give them a good game and get positive result. This is 100% a game we need to get winning, same with Charlton. Southampton and Birmingham are games I’d love to win but a draw is a decent point.

Yep. I’m expecting a high scoring game Saturday, got a better chance at Birmingham but that comes at the end of a very busy run of fixtures. We’ll probably drop and gain points where we aren’t expecting to anyway, that’s just how this league is.

14 win countdown to promotion (35 Viewers)

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