10 more wins does it (3 Viewers)

saveitforthewombles · Sunday at 2:47 PM

SeaSeeEffCee said:
Presumably that 93% chance is based on our previous results and the assumption that we’d maintain that level of performance which we clearly aren’t doing and don’t look like returning to.

You're right - it's now dropped to 2%.

jto123 · Sunday at 2:51 PM

SeaSeeEffCee said:
Presumably that 93% chance is based on our previous results and the assumption that we’d maintain that level of performance which we clearly aren’t doing and don’t look like returning to.

Yeah I don’t see anything that makes me want think we’re going to get close to our early form.

saveitforthewombles · Sunday at 2:55 PM

jto123 said:
Yeah I don’t see anything that makes me want think we’re going to get close to our early form.

I don't think the stats are that far off. we probably overperformed on xG early in the season and have dropped off since then

saveitforthewombles · Sunday at 2:57 PM

Interesting looking at the season Ipswich finished 2nd (96 points) - this was their Dec/Jan form

Matt smith · Sunday at 2:59 PM

saveitforthewombles said:
Interesting looking at the season Ipswich finished 2nd (96 points) - this was their Dec/Jan form

Got Moore and Sarmiento and got over the line

saveitforthewombles · Sunday at 3:08 PM

Matt smith said:
Got Moore and Sarmiento and got over the line

that's a great shout - no doubt we will do something similar

SeaSeeEffCee · Sunday at 3:08 PM

I think realistically what Lampard and the coaching staff need to try and do is essentially ‘reset’ the season. Sack off the cup game, and then treat the Leicester game as the start of a ‘new season’. Try and block out the noise of the current points gap, the fact that no-one has ever failed to go up from here etc. etc. and focus on getting results again.

Big head loss today but we are still in a fantastic position and can turn it back around.

Sky Blue Heaven · Sunday at 3:38 PM

So, how many points do we need from the remaining fixtures?

Home vs Leicester, Millwall, Oxford, Middlesbrough, Stoke, Preston, Southampton, Derby, Shef Wednesday, Portsmouth & Wrexham

Away vs Norwich, QPR, WBA, Shef Utd, Bristol City, Swansea, Hull, Blackburn & Watford

Skyblue Bangkok · Sunday at 3:42 PM

SeaSeeEffCee said:
I think realistically what Lampard and the coaching staff need to try and do is essentially ‘reset’ the season. Sack off the cup game, and then treat the Leicester game as the start of a ‘new season’. Try and block out the noise of the current points gap, the fact that no-one has ever failed to go up from here etc. etc. and focus on getting results again.

Big head loss today but we are still in a fantastic position and can turn it back around.

Last season had a good start too and then lost their way we seem to be copying them but if we are in the play offs again can't see us going up.

CovveeBreak · Sunday at 3:42 PM

saveitforthewombles said:
Interesting looking at the season Ipswich finished 2nd (96 points) - this was their Dec/Jan form

Cross posting this from another thread:
___________

We've taken 15 points from the last 10 games which roughly contains our patch of poor form.

These are all of the worst 10 match runs points wise for all of the teams promoted via autos in champ in last 10 years:

9 — Leeds United (2019/20)
9 — AFC Bournemouth (2021/22)
10 — Leicester City (2023/24)
11 — Burnley (2015/16)
11 — West Bromwich Albion (2019/20)
12 — Middlesbrough (2015/16)
12 — Cardiff City (2017/18)
12 — Sheffield United (2018/19)
12 — Sheffield United (2022/23)
12 — Ipswich Town (2023/24)
13 — Fulham (2021/22)
14 — Watford (2020/21)
15 — Newcastle United (2016/17)
15 — Wolverhampton Wanderers (2017/18)
15 — Burnley (2022/23)
16 — Norwich City (2018/19)
17 — Brighton & Hove Albion (2016/17)
17 — Burnley (2024/25)
18 — Norwich City (2020/21)
18 — Leeds United (2024/25)

____________

This blip in form is above average (as in better than others) for teams promoted via autos.

Feel like this game will be a big wake up call - for the players, for DK, for everyone to buck their ides up and lock the fuck in.

Leicester game is chance to be a HUGE spring board - and confident it will be.

long way home · Sunday at 4:09 PM

Not the time to panic or throw the baby out with the bath water. We need to rest up, get players back fit and players back to form. Its going to take work and help from multiple signings.

The start we have had was never going to sustain. We just have to stock together make some changes and reset going back to basics. Few wins all calms down we start to look up again. Tough period but i personally think ots come at the right time as we can rest and get help.

stupot07 · Sunday at 4:36 PM

8 points off 3rd with Ipswich having a game in hand. 9 off 4th.

Table at the end of Nov
1. Cov - 43
2. Mid - 33 (10 points)
3. Mill - 31 (12 points)
4. Stoke - 30 (13 points
5. PNE - 30 (13 points)
6. Bristol - 29 (14 points)

Table as it stands
1. Cov - 52
2. Mid - 46 (6 points)
3. Ipswich - 44 (8 points) - 1 game in hand
4. PNE - 43 (9 points)
5. Watford - 41 (11 points) - 1 game in hand
6. Hull - 41 (11 points) - 1 game in hand

Ccfcisparks · Sunday at 4:37 PM

stupot07 said:
8 points off 3rd with Ipswich having a game in hand. 9 off 4th.

Table at the end of Nov
1. Cov - 43
2. Mid - 33 (10 points)
3. Mill - 31 (12 points)
4. Stoke - 30 (13 points
5. PNE - 30 (13 points)
6. Bristol - 29 (14 points)

Table as it stands
1. Cov - 52
2. Mid - 46 (6 points)
3. Ipswich - 44 (8 points) - 1 game in hand
4. PNE - 43 (9 points)
5. Watford - 41 (11 points) - 1 game in hand
6. Hull - 41 (11 points) - 1 game in hand

so essentially our lead has been slashed after our most difficult run. not terrible

stupot07 · Sunday at 4:41 PM

Ccfcisparks said:
so essentially our lead has been slashed after our most difficult run. not terrible

We've just had 5 points taken off us by lowly Charlton and mid-table and struggling Birmingham in consecutive games

Woefully out of form Middlesbrough have managed to gain 4 points on us.

Ccfcisparks · Sunday at 4:48 PM

stupot07 said:
We've just had 5 points taken off us by lowly Charlton and mid-table and struggling Birmingham in consecutive games

Woefully out of form Middlesbrough have managed to gain 4 points on us.

To be fair they had an easy December.

We have done alright to get where we are with our squad so thin

CCFC96 · Sunday at 4:59 PM

stupot07 said:
We've just had 5 points taken off us by lowly Charlton and mid-table and struggling Birmingham in consecutive games

Woefully out of form Middlesbrough have managed to gain 4 points on us.

Next league games for Boro:
WBA (A)
Stoke (A)
PNE (H)
Norwich (H)
Sheff U (A)
Cov (A)

For us it's:
Leicester (H)
Millwall (H)
Norwich (A)
QPR (A)
Oxford (H)
Boro (H)

For Ipswich:
Blackburn (H)
Bristol City (H)
Sheff U (A)
PNE (H)
Derby (A)
Hull (H)

There's a world where the gap to boro is back to 10-12 points and Ipswich maintains at 8 points or maybe jumps back to 10 in the next two fixtures.

CovValleyBoy · Sunday at 5:02 PM

Call to all City fans.
Forget Sky & CWR Firestick make it your business to get a ticket for the 20 match Run In.

11 Home
9 Away

Lamps · Sunday at 5:13 PM

stupot07 said:
We've just had 5 points taken off us by lowly Charlton and mid-table and struggling Birmingham in consecutive games

Woefully out of form Middlesbrough have managed to gain 4 points on us.

Middlesbrough with 4 points from their last 5 games?

Of course it looks worse than it really is when you take a snapshot of the table and the gap is bigger. Is that at the biggest gap so far and when we had a tough December ahead?

Mucca Mad Boys · Sunday at 5:15 PM

Hold the line. We’re still doing this!

skybluecam · Sunday at 6:12 PM

Did people genuinely think we wouldn't have a poor run all season and absolutely obliterate the league with 100+ points? lol

At least it has come now and we have the chance to address it with signings this month. Hopefully it will convince King to spend that bit extra.

jto123 · Sunday at 6:22 PM

skybluecam said:
Did people genuinely think we wouldn't have a poor run all season and absolutely obliterate the league with 100+ points? lol

At least it has come now and we have the chance to address it with signings this month. Hopefully it will convince King to spend that bit extra.

I always thought a bad run would come, but I just felt our good run was hiding a lot. It seemed to make people think we were miles better than everyone else in the league. I never thought that and now it’s evening out again.

stupot07 · Sunday at 7:17 PM

Form last 8

Brighton Sky Blue · Sunday at 7:18 PM

stupot07 said:
Form last 8

Nice of us to lift Birmingham off the bottom.

shmmeee · Sunday at 7:21 PM

stupot07 said:
Form last 8

Terrible. But calling the QP Rangers should get you put on a list.

ProfessorbyGrace · Sunday at 8:21 PM

stupot07 said:
Form last 8

That’s pretty dismal reading.

itsvangool · Sunday at 9:19 PM

Doesn’t matter which teams these are but here are some mid/late season runs of some of the teams who have gone up automatically in the past five seasons. If you want to look at a potentially comparable season points wise to what will be the projected amount of points to get autos this season go and look at 21/22. Fulham and Bournemouth went up with 90 and 86 points respectively and both had some decidedly dodgy spells.

This break has come just at the right time. Get that bug out of the club, couple of fresh faces and a tactical reset. Forget the cup and kick on again. We always knew this spell was coming and it happens to nearly every team (except Burnley who have gone up twice and lost a total of 5 games across the two seasons!!)

Apart from the last two games I think we’ve come out of the Xmas/New Year period ok. Battled at Southampton with players dropping like flies and ten men. Draw at Preston was ok, Charlton was disappointing but how can we expect a cohesive performance with six changes. Wins over Bristol and Swansea were ok and 1-0 wins are what makes a season. Ipswich will go up and have a squad that reflects that. Lost twice to them.

Only lost 3-2 away twice to other teams. Wrexham (3 of back 4 missing). I would say today was the first really disappointing result as we were pretty much full strength, dominated possession but were tactically undone and defended really poorly.

It’s ebb and flow and we are all thinking that other teams are going to go on massive unbeaten runs like we did. Statistics would say that the pattern of results (everyone having small streaky runs of good results) will continue.

Just my perspective. Onwards and Upwards.

Tea & Busquets · Monday at 12:54 AM

If we get at least 2-3 of good quality in sooner rather than later I think we go up automatically relatively stress free. We’ve lost significant depth to injury and it seems like there might be some unease around certain players futures at the club potentially affecting our play.

Liquid Gold · Monday at 1:45 AM

I'm still confident we do it.

Lots of players overworked or out of form and performances have dipped but we have got through our tough patch remaining clear at the top. The rest of the season eases off and our final batch of games should be even more simple.

I am hopeful today was the low point of the season and we pick up again with new signings, fresh legs and improved fitness. We do need to pick up all those things though.

clint van damme · Monday at 7:25 AM

I think this cup game has come at just the right time.
A chance for players to rest, regroup and get back to doing the basics right.

Hopefully with a new face or 2 in for Leicester and Millwall.

Mucca Mad Boys · Monday at 7:39 AM

clint van damme said:
I think this cup game has come at just the right time.
A chance for players to rest, regroup and get back to doing the basics right.

Hopefully with a new face or 2 in for Leicester and Millwall.

I’m not panicking, it’s been a tough schedule and this week has come at the right time to freshen up the pack and bring in a few players.

Far too many people losing their nerve. We’re still top by 2 games!

Brighton Sky Blue · Monday at 7:49 AM

Mucca Mad Boys said:
I’m not panicking, it’s been a tough schedule and this week has come at the right time to freshen up the pack and bring in a few players.

Far too many people losing their nerve. We’re still top by 2 games!

My concern is that a short respite may not be enough on its own after the squad has burnt itself out.

lord_garrincha · Monday at 7:57 AM

skybluecam said:
Did people genuinely think we wouldn't have a poor run all season and absolutely obliterate the league with 100+ points? lol

They were probably hoping it would come when they were all half-pissed on the pitch with the Championship secured.

Then they could accuse of them lacking killer instinct and not being good enough for the next level.

We just need a 2-week squad rest and replenish... over to you Dean & Doug.

StrettoBoy · Monday at 8:17 AM

Lamps said:
Middlesbrough are finished unless they bring in a striker.

Really?

They scored 4 in 22 minutes against Southampton yesterday. For context that’s the same as we scored in our 6 league games in December.

Ccfcisparks · Monday at 8:22 AM

StrettoBoy said:
Really?

They scored 4 in 22 minutes against Southampton yesterday. For context that’s the same as we scored in our 6 league games in December.

they hadn’t scored for 7 hours or something ridiculous before that

Robinshio · Monday at 8:24 AM

CCFC96 said:
Next league games for Boro:
WBA (A)
Stoke (A)
PNE (H)
Norwich (H)
Sheff U (A)
Cov (A)

For us it's:
Leicester (H)
Millwall (H)
Norwich (A)
QPR (A)
Oxford (H)
Boro (H)

For Ipswich:
Blackburn (H)
Bristol City (H)
Sheff U (A)
PNE (H)
Derby (A)
Hull (H)

There's a world where the gap to boro is back to 10-12 points and Ipswich maintains at 8 points or maybe jumps back to 10 in the next two fixtures.

A few weeks ago we would have seen all of those as winnable. Need to get back there. Need at least 3 home wins and 1 away including beating boro. That probably sees an 8 point gap with 14 to play

10 more wins does it (3 Viewers)

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