We havnt got Brad Collins in goal this year though, he did lose us a fair few points during those losses
He'll be gone for a Burton if it continuesShocking performance from Collins for Burton yesterday.
Wasn't on Saturday lolI think I saw a stat the other day to show he’s the best keeper in L1.
He'll be gone for a Burton if it continues
Every tournament year I have a tenner on the Cov Promotion England to lift the trophy doubleRight - who's about to make their fortune with a City as Champions bet?
2030 could be a very good year for us then...Every tournament year I have a tenner on the Cov Promotion England to lift the trophy double
2018 we obvs got promoted at pretty short odds from L2, and England lost the semis (Albeit I think we would have been steamrolled by that particular France side in the final)
2020 come even closer, albeit I had to wait an extra year for the outcome as Euro 2020 was postponed, I stood to win about £600 on that bet as due to the summer turmoil of moving grounds and clubs like Sunderland and Ipswich being in the League we were very good odds to go up that season, and we fudged up the penalties in the final
2022 did not place it due to the World Cup being mid season
Shorter odds of 35/1 this year but third time lucky
Will be high if everyone keeps winningI think 90 is going to be needed for promotion. What’s the most that has ever missed out?
On what basis?I think 90 is going to be needed for promotion. What’s the most that has ever missed out?
Pos Team Played W D L Pts Status 1 Coventry City 46 27 10 9 91 Champions (P) 2 Middlesbrough 46 25 11 10 86 Promoted (P) 3 Ipswich Town 46 24 12 10 84 Play-offs 4 Millwall 46 23 10 13 79 Play-offs 5 Hull City 46 23 8 15 77 Play-offs 6 Wrexham 46 20 14 12 74 Play-offs
Unlikely? More like impossibleWill be high if everyone keeps winning
Unlikely though
I honestly think they are capable of that. Not saying definitely, but if we want to guarantee (this being the key word) promotion 90 is needed I thinkOn what basis?
Ipswich would need 30 points from 13 games. 10 wins or 9 wins 3 draws. And 7 of those are away.
I honestly think they are capable of that. Not saying definitely, but if we want to guarantee (this being the key word) promotion 90 is needed I think
5 wins 6 defeats for Middlesbrough would put them on 81 points. 7 wins 6 defeats for Ipswich would put them on 81 points.it won’t be 90 points for promotion imo. 90 points might secure the title but more high 70’s. 6 wins would do it. Maybe even 5.
High 70s for autos? You think if we win 2 draw 2 and lose 7 we're finishing 2nd?it won’t be 90 points for promotion imo. 90 points might secure the title but more high 70’s. 6 wins would do it. Maybe even 5.
I think he meant high 80sHigh 70s for autos? You think if we win 2 draw 2 and lose 7 we're finishing 2nd?
High 70s for autos? You think if we win 2 draw 2 and lose 7 we're finishing 2nd?
Stop panicking!!We mustn’t get overconfident.
Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.
I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.
Stop panicking!!
Last 9 we've picked up 19 at 2.1 ppg. Keep that up and we'll finish on 94. So Middlesbrough better buck up their ideas.We mustn’t get overconfident.
Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.
I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.
100% the 17thBut it will definitely be in the next block of 5, 7th or 17th of March
Latest projected table for the top 6 after Boro's win tonight:
Rich (BB code):
Pos Team Played W D L Pts Status 1 Coventry City 46 27 10 9 91 Champions (P) 2 Middlesbrough 46 25 11 10 86 Promoted (P) 3 Ipswich Town 46 24 12 10 84 Play-offs 4 Millwall 46 23 10 13 79 Play-offs 5 Hull City 46 23 8 15 77 Play-offs 6 Wrexham 46 20 14 12 74 Play-offs
In this projection, Ipswich pick up 4 points from their 2 games in hand and draw their game with Boro.
I've said all along we'll need 90, you can't use the PPG over the whole season as form is different now to what it was at the start.I think 90 is going to be needed for promotion. What’s the most that has ever missed out?
2.3 ppg last 10 but 1.88 for the season… I don’t think they’ll maintain 2.3 for the next 11 games.We mustn’t get overconfident.
Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.
I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.
2.3 ppg last 10 but 1.88 for the season… I don’t think they’ll maintain 2.3 for the next 11 games.
If we match our season form, we’ll hit 93 points (2 ppg from remaining 11) and Boro need to go 2.5 ppg to hit 94. If they do that, they deserve to win the league and knock Ipswich out of the running too.
For context, 2.5 ppg for them looks like 9-1-1 from their remaining games. If we win 8 games out of 11 (unlikely to be fair), Boro have to be flawless (as do Ipswich) and both can’t be flawless because they play each other. We’re not even at 2.5 ppg at home and it’s been near perfect.
We’ve just got to go out there, win 4-6 of our home games, and pick up a win or two on the road. Our away schedule isn’t that scary, Hull’s home record is below par, Watford will (potentially) be in the beach for the final day and our most difficult game on paper is Swansea.
Our home form will be tested because Derby, Wrexham, Southampton are all decent on the road but we’ve beaten Millwall, Boro and drew to Hull who are the best teams away from home.
Home form is always a crutch because it’s rare for most promoted teams to hit 2 ppg in away form. The magic numbers is 2.3 ppg at home and 1.8 ppg away or thereabouts.It's funny as ask me a few weeks back and I would've said the same about our home form being our crutch to promotion however our away fixtures are far more favourable.
As you've mentioned Hull's home form is seriously letting them down, Watford haven't been great at the Hawthorns for a while now, Blackburn shouldn't be overly difficult given their league position, and Bristol are pretty middle of the road in terms of form.
I'm not even that concerned with Swansea to be honest. If you actually look at their run at home over the past 10 games it's been very favourable. 5 out of their 7 wins from the past 10 have been against sides in the bottom 6.
Home form is always a crutch because it’s rare for most promoted teams to hit 2 ppg in away form. The magic numbers is 2.3 ppg at home and 1.8 ppg away or thereabouts.
Boro has the best away form in the division and even they’re at 1.72 and while their home form is good, just not as good as Ipswich or us.
We’re tracking just shy of Leeds home form last season of 58 points and should beat Burnley’s (24/25), Leeds, Leicester and Ipswich (23/24) tally of 52-54 points. At the current run rate of 2.47 ppg at home, we should hit 56-58 points which is 4-2-0 or 5-0-1.
I’ll try to eyeball our remaining home games:
PNE - W
Southampton - D
Derby - W
Sheff Wednesday - W
Portsmouth - W
Wrexham - D
If we secure promotion at Blackburn/Pompey, then think we’ll lose to Wrexham and to be honest, I actually back us to beat Southampton but can see us drawing to Derby.
…and yet we’re still top.We mustn’t get overconfident.
Over the last ten matches Middlesborough have averaged 2.3 ppg, with 7 wins, 2 draws and the loss against us. If they maintain that form to the end of the season - and I appreciate that it is a big if and that they still have to play Ipswich - they will end up with 91 points. I think Ipswich are capable of achieving that as well.
I suspect that they won’t both get that many points but if we get less than 88-90 it could be squeaky bum time.
Spot on, we’ve got 6 teams in the top 11 to play, I’d prefer that to teams like Norwich Oxford or QPR who we struggled against, we couldn’t have a better run inThe good thing this time of the year is to make autos you need to get 3 points from a game. With all the games to play amongst the top 6 you will not get many draws. Both teams will need the points and will want a positive outcome which should mean open and expansive football games. I would be more worried about playing any of the 6 teams above Sheffield Wednesday who are actually scrapping for survival, they will often set up not lose which is a harder proposition to face this time of the year. I think we will be ok with 87 points if that helps.
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