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  1. mrtrench

    The EU: In, out, shake it all about....

    Sorry, one more thought: and of course increasing the retirement age - something we are doing. Imagine trying to do that in say France, where the unions have so much power.
  2. mrtrench

    The EU: In, out, shake it all about....

    I agree that presently we have a pensions crisis due to: 1) Longevity 2) The baby boom. This is also of course a root cause of NHS budget increase requirements. It's a temporary issue (regarding baby boomers) but not temporary re longevity. Adding millions of low paid workers from Europe...
  3. mrtrench

    The EU: In, out, shake it all about....

    And we'll be able to reduce net immigration - especially for low-skilled workers, thus: 1) Reducing the pressure on housing and services - but especially housing. We'll be able to catch up with house building requirements and increase supply so that prices actually reduce to affordable levels...
  4. mrtrench

    The EU: In, out, shake it all about....

    Nah, he likes hip hop.
  5. mrtrench

    The EU: In, out, shake it all about....

    I think an educated man, who thinks things through for himself, who is numerate and literate and likes the Comsat Angels. ... and I can prove it.
  6. mrtrench

    MILO

    Never heard of this guy before. He's picking an easy target: Islam, like Christianity, has some horrific passages in their respective holy books (even Paul, in his post-ascention epistles writes some awful tosh). If people were to follow them all they'd pretty quickly end up not only being a...
  7. mrtrench

    Cryptocurrencies

    It's a bubble - I wouldn't touch it with your barge pole. There is a saying in the City that when your taxi driver tells you about an investment it's time to sell. Sell whilst you can is my advice.
  8. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    I got it wrong. It's inflation and unemployment that caused the rethink on Keynes (stagflation): "By the end of the 1960s... the rate of inflation began to rise sharply, and to register a value well above what had been predicted on the basis of the Phillips Curve. At first the authorities...
  9. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    OK, a couple of passages from that book I mentioned. It's called "Understanding the UK Economy" by Peter Curwen. This is from the second edition. First a critique on borrowing during hardship and paying back whilst in growth: "In fairness to Keynes, it should be said that his view of the...
  10. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    Not my understanding on Keynsian economics, from a book I read: " I disagree with pretending to know things that I do not, so I'll confess that my knowledge of Keynsian economics in history is limited to a book I read - it's a neutrally positioned book just explaining the history of the UK...
  11. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    Still there, just moved: FactCheck – Channel 4 News
  12. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    That's all correct from my understanding. It's a pity they didn't pick up on the fact that the rate of interest on the debt would also rise; which IMO blows McDonnell's theories out of the water. So the debt rises and the rate rises, reducing the ability to spend without either increasing...
  13. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    Keynes went out of fashion because of the impact on unemployment. In theory, if the country could afford it, I'd agree with you. But if the cost of realising the benefit exceeds the benefit itself then it's no longer a good thing, surely?
  14. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    If debt were 40% of GDP and we were adding 1% on top I could agree with you. But it isn't, and I have explained why it's a bad idea now.
  15. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    To comment on some of the things being said about the budget and by McDonnell: 1) House prices and stamp duty. Removing stamp duty for first time buyers will indeed over time increase house prices. This is why: house prices are all about supply and demand. They are high because demand...
  16. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    Not deliberately implying it - who knows maybe? What I'm trying to say is that an opinion on whether it's a good thing economically or not is useless unless the economic benefits have been modelled and they know the results. Of course people can still argue over the parameters for the model...
  17. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    He really is a fuckwit. God help us.
  18. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    HS2 is infrastructure (replying to Clint). And taking the opinion of some bloke who lives near to the route as an expert voice doesn't cut it for me. I also know next to nothing about the economic benefits from a faster train service; although I'm pretty sure I could build a model I don't know...
  19. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    There are huge investments in infrastructure (HS2 and crossrail) but they aren't there yet. But I agree. And yet the majority of the investment has to come from private commerce. I think the biggest factor is all tied up with low-skilled labour and pay. Because labour is cheap, firms have no...
  20. mrtrench

    Budget 2018

    They explained in their report why that was - productivity. These have been out for a while - read several articles over the last weekend on their predictions. They may be overly pessimistic - we will see.
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