Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I agree, not unthinkable. However, 25 games to play, suppose we win 12 of them (not even half). Other sides then would need to win 17/25 which is not much room for error.
14 win countdown to promotion (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter AFCCOVENTRY
- Start date
Lamps
Well-Known Member
It also isn't as likely as some are making out.
We've lost 2 out of 21. If we were to lose 5 out of 25 it would mean the other side losing none out of 25. Southampton have now hit better form but have lost as many in the last 4 games as we have all season. It's a big ask.
AFCCOVENTRY
Well-Known Member
How many home games do we have left?
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Lamps
Well-Known Member
After Southampton away next game we have 13 out of 24 at home. If our home form continues we most probably only need a win or 2 out of the remaining away games for promotion.
AFCCOVENTRY
Well-Known Member
10 home wins and 3/4 away wins… yum
StrettoBoy
Well-Known Member
If we lose to Southampton, which is entirely possible, we will have won 14 out of 22.
Looking at your first option we would then need to win 14 out of the remaining 24. It is reasonably foreseeable that we could fall short
I have a feeling we might draw more in the remainder of the season, which could be the difference
SkyBlueDom26
Well-Known Member
Let’s just concentrate on us and take 1 game at a time
I think people are looking at this the wrong way around. If we don't get to at least mid to high 80 points we are unlikely to go up automatically. That's the challenge. I know people are talking about high 70's could be enough this year but I don't agree with that. If we win another 14 like the thread title suggests, we are highly unlikely to lose the other 11, so there will be points from draws to add on. Any team currently 3rd down would then need to win at least 18 and get 1 more draw than us to make up for the goal difference. For them to do that, it would possibly mean not losing another game.
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Lamps
Well-Known Member
Both of Southampton's GK's are not of a very good standard. Their defence isn't much better. They have a lack of goalscorers. This isn't a good base to go on winning runs like we have. They are on a good run now but have lost 2 of their last 4 games including the last game against Norwich who are still in 23rd.
Ipswich have the players but don't seem to have a system for them. 3-1 loss to Leicester last game and 3 wins from their last 6. Plenty of pressure on Leicester but 2 shots on target.
Of course anything side can go on a run. But the 2 most likeliest sides to go on a run are the two sides that have been consistent so far. That's us and Middlesborough.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Agreed, it would take Southampton having Leicester City 23/24 form for 22 games to him 85 points - that’s the required run rate for 2.5 ppg for them. It’s a similar story for Ipswich to get to 89 points. The caveat here is 2.5 PPG is slightly higher than what they actually need to hit those points tallies. However, both team are heavily reliant on Boro and ourselves slipping to around 1.6 PPG to have a sniff.
Mathematically, it is a possibility but definitely a v low probability.
KenilworthSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
They have a lack of goal scorers?
Despite Armstrong scoring 11 in 16 league games and Azaz who's scored 6 in 7?
Robinshio
Well-Known Member
Or win 12 draw 6 lose 6. With no top teams left to play awayIf we lose to Southampton, which is entirely possible, we will have won 14 out of 22.
Looking at your first option we would then need to win 14 out of the remaining 24. It is reasonably foreseeable that we could fall short
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Be very confident! There’s a few fans that should be dead cert wins for us:
Swansea - home and away
Sheff Wednesday - home
Oxford - home
Pompey - home
These are games that should be 100% wins.
Next up there’s fixtures like:
Millwall - home
Derby - home
Charlton - away
Blackburn - away
PNE - home
Stoke - home
That all should be wins. You could probably add Norwich away to that list but they’re under new management so are somewhat of an unknown quantity. I’d be tempted to add Wrexham (H) to this list but they might recruit aggressively in Jan.
There’s 11 games that ought to be 3 points and
probably won’t be 100% accurate but it highlights just how strong our hand is. With 13 home games remaining, 7-10 should be wins alone and then we’ve got some easier games away to pick up 5-7 wins on the road.
15 wins from the remaining 25 is v doable and some of the games I’ve left out I fancy us to win or at least draw (Leicester, Boro, Southampton and Ipswich at home).
HuckerbyDublinWhelan
Well-Known Member
Lack of Goalscorers? Isn't Armstrong the top scorer? Fellows and Azaz are top players. Yes they've lost 2 games but over the 46 game season, theirs and Ipswich's full squad will put them into stronger positions as the season goes on. We're currently starting to creak somewhat (results still there - but performances are dropping) Middlesbrough i think will be very similar.
I know this is a contentious point - but the xG and xPoints table suggests that Ipswich and southampton are massively underperforming but generally over the long term its reasonably correct. That currently has Ipswich being 7 less than where they should be and southmapton 4 less. if both them teams get it right - they'll be in and around the mid to late 80s.
Southampton are still very much in it. History tells us it'll be around late 80s early 90s. To suggest that this season will end up with record lows on the points has little merit
Lamps
Well-Known Member
That's 2. List the others.
We have goalscorers all over the pitch. At the last count we had 12 different goalscorers.
HuckerbyDublinWhelan
Well-Known Member
they've scored 22 goals in 8 games since the change of manager. we were crowing about us having a similar record.
Lamps
Well-Known Member
Lack of goalscorers isn't no goalscorers. If the goals come from just a few players you have a better chance of stopping them scoring. A team like ours is very hard to defend against as if they put 3 players on Wright it gives space to our other goalscorers.
skybluelee
Well-Known Member
For Southampton to reach early 90s (lets say 92 for a nice round 2 ppg) they'd need 62 from 25.
So 19 wins 5 draws 1 defeat. I know where my money is on the likelihood of that happening.
They've just lost their last 2 away games so they better buck up their ideas quickly.
Lamps
Well-Known Member
And 2 defeats in the last 4 including against 23rd place Norwich last game.
The problem for them is they are poor at the back and have a clone of Wilson in goal.
We will probably get a couple of unexpected results from that lot (draw or loss) but equally I'm sure that we will get 2 or 3 wins from the remaining fixtures. Wrexham and Watford will possibly have nothing to play for by the time we meet them (and possibly even Hull)
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Exactly, you’re right. It’s important to recognise most of the game I listed are at home where we’ve been nearly flawless under Lampard as a whole.
I’ve been cautious to not say we should beat Boro, Leicester, Ipswich, Southampton and others who we’ll be favoured to beat despite being very tough opposition. We’ve got 2 v tough away games in our next 3 so if we 6+ points from those, we’re laughing!
KenilworthSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
I thought it was also a lack of goalscorers? Make up your mind.
Lamps
Well-Known Member
I see the bad smell is back questioning my posts as usual.
You shut up about the lack of goalscorers when you had to admit they have a lack of goalscorers when we have them all over the pitch. If the couple of players they rely on for their goals don't score or get injured they lose to poor teams like Norwich because their GK and defence are so poor.
KenilworthSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
But they don't have a lack of goal scorers.
They've scored 17 goals in the past 6 games.
In the same period, we've scored 12.
In those 6 games alone both Azaz and Armstrong have collectively scored 11.
Wright hasn't found the net in 8 games now, BTA is injured, Rudoni is clearly still getting up to speed. So really, they currently have more in form goalscorers than we do.
Lamps
Well-Known Member
How many of their players score goals? We've had at least 12 goalscorers now.
As I said before a lack isn't none. But as usual you try to twist words on several people on here then reduce yourself to name calling when shown to be wrong. I expect your name calling to start soon. Very tedious.
KenilworthSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
Likely less than us. But it's an irrelevant point that lacks context. They struggled in front of goal in the first block of games because Will Still couldn't get them performing anywhere near to the standard required.
Since Tonga Eckert has come in they've scored 22 goals in 8 games. In that same period we've scored 16. They are quite clearly very capable of scoring goals.
I agree with you about their defensive and goalkeeping issues. The lack of goalscorers argument is a complete nonsense point though and evidence suggests as such.
Lamps
Well-Known Member
Is it?
We had Wright and BTA scoring for fun. We scored lots of goals. Now BTA is injured and Wright is just back from injury. Their goals have dried up yet we still have goals from other players all over the pitch that's still allowing us to win games and match the points they're getting. If they lose their two players that are scoring most of their goals they won't score many.
thekidfromstrettoncamp
Well-Known Member
This talk about Southampton goal scoring in the last 6 games they scored 17 and picked up 12 points we have only scored 13 but have picked up 13 it does't matter how many they have scored. They have picked up 1 point less and people keep quoting them as a team to worry about . Relax and.enjoy the ride .
KenilworthSkyBlue
Well-Known Member
If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. The same could be said for the vast majority of sides at this level if their best players were out.
If we're able to freeze out Azaz and Armstrong then sure, they might struggle to pick up 3 points as much of their attacking threat revolves around them. But they still have several capable players in that side. Manning and Scienza being two.
Skyblueweeman
Well-Known Member
I've seen this mentioned a few times (not just by you Lamps tbf) but as bad as their GKs/Defence might be, they've won 6 of their last 8.
They're no pushovers.
Lamps
Well-Known Member
Which is exactly my point and you know it is. You say our goals have dried up yet tru to ignore our players that scored the most goals got injured. Yet will you consider what would happen if the same happened to them?
Lamps
Well-Known Member
Haven't said it will be easy. I said the result could go either way. They are good going forward but poor at the back. We're good going forward and amongst the best at the back.
The last few games we've been up against a good GK. That won't be happening tomorrow. But will our defence hold out against their attacks? If we keep hitting the target we will score. I am expecting a goal feast.
oneofourown
Well-Known Member
I like watching football and enjoy watching the opposition in the championship, and as I suffer, like many on here, from anxiety, I try to be subjective in my approach. I am not one to exaggerate but the standard in the championship is not massively high. Teams, we expect to do well, ones with money, ones relegated fron the premiership, but the over-riding conclusion I have reached is that apart from us teams are not consistant, even Boro blow hot and cold.
When I watch us it is like watching a team with confidence and style, and they are thoroughly enjoying themselves. Watch Kitch and Thomas press forward and get involved in the attack and trying their skills is a joy to watch, it's honestly like going down the park and seeing a group of mates having a kick around. They back each other, praise each other, and would win games even if I wasn't watching because their belief in themselve is greater than mine.
FL has done that to them, with his team, for the team getting praise from Frank Lampard is worthy. I am a person with faith and I am extremely grateful for the last few years. We have an unbelieveable manager and team and it is a joy to watch us. I don't know the future, even tomorrow's result, but I know it will be fun to watch, even with a nervous disposition, let hope it continues. AMEN.
When I watch us it is like watching a team with confidence and style, and they are thoroughly enjoying themselves. Watch Kitch and Thomas press forward and get involved in the attack and trying their skills is a joy to watch, it's honestly like going down the park and seeing a group of mates having a kick around. They back each other, praise each other, and would win games even if I wasn't watching because their belief in themselve is greater than mine.
FL has done that to them, with his team, for the team getting praise from Frank Lampard is worthy. I am a person with faith and I am extremely grateful for the last few years. We have an unbelieveable manager and team and it is a joy to watch us. I don't know the future, even tomorrow's result, but I know it will be fun to watch, even with a nervous disposition, let hope it continues. AMEN.