How many points do we need? (4 Viewers)

[quinn1971]

Hang on , it was 10 wins last week before the 2 wins. So I make it 8 wins & a few draws.
That will do it.

I meant 30 points gets us up, didn’t want to over complicate it

 

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[skybluebristol]

History would seem to indicate that 85 won’t be enough. I think Boro will hit 87, so it just depends on how many Ipswich get.

Ipswich’s run of away games might come in handy for us

 

[skybluebristol]

I meant 30 points gets us up, didn’t want to over complicate it

I agree, that would be 88 points for us, I reckon good enough for at least second. And then it just depends if one of the other 2 go on a rampage to secure the top spot or whether 88 is enough for first.

The 91 total I quoted at the top of the thread would almost guarantee 1st

 

[Hobo]

I think we have to aim for 90 points.

 

[Robinshio]

It maybe 90 (but certainly no more than that), but for us to get to 90 we need

9 wins 5 draws 4 defeats
in 28 games we have drawn 7 and lost 4

Dont panic

2 from 4 with the way Hull are going, but we have a great advantage of 8 points going into the last 18

We were all thinking Ipswich were nailed on, but watching them today , not so sure

 

[Nuskyblue]

The Ipswich Run In

Home matches left: 7
(Preston, Swansea, Leicester, Millwall, Birmingham, Middlesbrough, QPR)

Away matches left: 10
(Portsmouth, Derby, Wrexham, Watford, Stoke, Sheffield Wednesday, Southampton, Norwich, Charlton, West Brom)

Based on season long away form they would get something like 12 points from the away fixtures and 16 from their home games.

What I will say is that I think they are a worse team without Nunez, I think they really started to pick up as he was introduced into the team, I think he was injured at the start of the season?

Him being out could be massive.

Is anyone able to do a with/without Nunez comparison?

 

[AFCCOVENTRY]

The Ipswich Run In

Home matches left: 7
(Preston, Swansea, Leicester, Millwall, Birmingham, Middlesbrough, QPR)

Away matches left: 10
(Portsmouth, Derby, Wrexham, Watford, Stoke, Sheffield Wednesday, Southampton, Norwich, Charlton, West Brom)

Based on season long away form they would get something like 12 points from the away fixtures and 16 from their home games.

What I will say is that I think they are a worse team without Nunez, I think they really started to pick up as he was introduced into the team, I think he was injured at the start of the season?

Him being out could be massive.

Is anyone able to do a with/without Nunez comparison?

Think they have 11 away matches not 10?

I’d say they win all their 7 home games

the 4 champ away games in a row they have will likely be were they drop points.

 

[CovRes]

Think they have 11 away matches not 10?

I’d say they win all their 7 home games

the 4 champ away games in a row they have will likely be were they drop points.

It's 8 home games left and 10 away in the league. Their game with Hull needs to be rearranged as it clashes with their cup tie at Wrexham.

 

[Robinshio]

It’s looking more like 89-90 being the required but certainly no more

32 points for us
9/5/4.
As before Ipswich need 40 to match that
12/4/2
Boro need 36 due to gd
11/3/3

they also play each other and our game v boro is crucial

 

[jas365]

It’s looking more like 89-90 being the required but certainly no more

32 points for us
9/5/4.
As before Ipswich need 40 to match that
12/4/2
Boro need 36 due to gd
11/3/3

they also play each other and our game v boro is crucial

I think it will be more, purely because Ipswich are now picking up more points than they were at the start of the season.
Personally my benchmark total would be 92, which i do think we'll get to.

Home 6W 2D 1L
Away 3W 3D 3L

 

[itsvangool]

I've had a go at create a league table view of PPG. I hope it is fairly easy to understand but the first section is the current league table, the second section is last 6 games form and a projection of PPG from those 6 games to a final position.

The third section shows milestone end of season points totals, what we need to achieve in sky blue and what other teams PPG needs to be to hit that milestone.

The red shows those teams where it is either impossible to reach the milestone total or the average needed is higher than the teams with the highest PPG over the last 6 games. The green is where it is beneath that last 6 games threshold and is attainable.

For example. If we track at the current 1.67 PPG for the rest of the season only three teams fall into the PPG required below the current average of 2.17 PPG.

I think it is fair to assume that our current 1.67 PPG over the past 6 games will be enough to accrue 88 points and finish in the top two as both Ipswich & Hull will require 12\13 pts every 6 games until the end of the season.

 

[SkyblueTexan]

Below is our record over the course of the last 18 games for last 5 seasons since we’ve been back in the Championship:

11 W 1D 6L 34 pts 24-25 season

6W 3D 9L 21 pts 23-24 season

8W 8D 2L 32 pts 22-23 season

6W 5D 7L 23 pts 21-22 season

7W 3D 8L 24 pts 20-21 season

It’s worth noting that in 23-24 we had the FA Cup run that adversely impacted our league performance during the last couple of months or so.

Averaging the points total over the last 5 seasons we’ve managed around 26-27 points over the 18 games. That would take us to 84-85 points. However, I think we need to get to 90 points as many have said.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I've had a go at create a league table view of PPG. I hope it is fairly easy to understand but the first section is the current league table, the second section is last 6 games form and a projection of PPG from those 6 games to a final position.

The third section shows milestone end of season points totals, what we need to achieve in sky blue and what other teams PPG needs to be to hit that milestone.

The red shows those teams where it is either impossible to reach the milestone total or the average needed is higher than the teams with the highest PPG over the last 6 games. The green is where it is beneath that last 6 games threshold and is attainable.

For example. If we track at the current 1.67 PPG for the rest of the season only three teams fall into the PPG required below the current average of 2.17 PPG.

I think it is fair to assume that our current 1.67 PPG over the past 6 games will be enough to accrue 88 points and finish in the top two as both Ipswich & Hull will require 12\13 pts every 6 games until the end of the season.

View attachment 48646

This would be lot more robust if you considered home and away form when weighting the outcomes.

For example, we’re benchmarked against Ipswich who have had more home games than away in recent weeks. We have 9 home games left and using that as a guideline would give us 20-22 points alone.

Likewise, the points we’ve dropped away have been against team who had top 5 home records either as thing stand or at the time (e.g. PNE). Charlton and Southampton consistently had bottom half form.

 

[Nuskyblue]

Think they have 11 away matches not 10?

I’d say they win all their 7 home games

the 4 champ away games in a row they have will likely be were they drop points.

Think you may be correct.

Edit* they 11 away fixtures, 10 in the league one in the cup.

 

[sc1940]

Below is our record over the course of the last 18 games for last 5 seasons since we’ve been back in the Championship:

11 W 1D 6L 34 pts 24-25 season

6W 3D 9L 21 pts 23-24 season

8W 8D 2L 32 pts 22-23 season

6W 5D 7L 23 pts 21-22 season

7W 3D 8L 24 pts 20-21 season

It’s worth noting that in 23-24 we had the FA Cup run that adversely impacted our league performance during the last couple of months or so.

Averaging the points total over the last 5 seasons we’ve managed around 26-27 points over the 18 games. That would take us to 84-85 points. However, I think we need to get to 90 points as many have said.

I think 90 will be enough to win it, wouldn't be surprised to see 2nd at mid 80s