48 pts (13 Viewers)

[BackRoomRummermill]

So according to AI the general average requirement is 88 points for auto promotion - we have 29 games to play - we could in theory from 29 win 15 - draw 3 and lose another 11 and still go up - almost to the stage we can afford a bad run but still go up - i know it’s a figure of 88 but it feels about right - i am trying to justify things in my head in are we really going to make it -

 

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[shmmeee]

Also according to AI no team 45 points or more at game 20 has failed to be promoted. 5 from the next 3?

 

[Londonccfcfan]

Fuck AI...this season is an absolute anomoly..the table is messed up from 2nd place to 2nd bottom.

Norwich and Sheff United wont be anywhere near bottom 3.

After that...its take yoir pick..its never been so tight or competitive.

I think title winners 90 points. 2nd place as low as 85.

But 3rd to 6th will be as high as 80 to 72

Also 3rd from bottom will go down on 50pts.

What do i know.

 

[bawtryneal]

Fuck AI...this season is an absolute anomoly..the table is messed up from 2nd place to 2nd bottom.

Norwich and Sheff United wont be anywhere near bottom 3.

After that...its take yoir pick..its never been so tight or competitive.

I think title winners 90 points. 2nd place as low as 85.

But 3rd to 6th will be as high as 80 to 72

Also 3rd from bottom will go down on 50pts.

What do i know.

You obviously were never very good at maths
Only one team can get three points maximum every match
Everyone plays everyone twice.

 

[fatso]

So according to AI the general average requirement is 88 points for auto promotion - we have 29 games to play - we could in theory from 29 win 15 - draw 3 and lose another 11 and still go up - almost to the stage we can afford a bad run but still go up - i know it’s a figure of 88 but it feels about right - i am trying to justify things in my head in are we really going to make it -

Let's just win every game and fuck AI

 

[bawtryneal]

Appreciate stating the obvious but the two games against both Ipswich and Southampton will define our destiny.

 

[Manchester_sky_blue]

Fuck AI...this season is an absolute anomoly..the table is messed up from 2nd place to 2nd bottom.

Norwich and Sheff United wont be anywhere near bottom 3.

After that...its take yoir pick..its never been so tight or competitive.

I think title winners 90 points. 2nd place as low as 85.

But 3rd to 6th will be as high as 80 to 72

Also 3rd from bottom will go down on 50pts.

What do i know.

People said the same about Luton...... People said it about Leeds when they went down..... No doubt people said it about us too. Reputation and squad "value" doth butter no parsnips.

 

[bawtryneal]

Norwich will get relegated in my opinion.
SUFC will finish around 10th.

 

[bigfatronssba]

Also according to AI no team 45 points or more at game 20 has failed to be promoted. 5 from the next 3?

I had a look back myself at some old league tables.

Last club to have 40+ points after 17 games and not go up was Bradford in 1988

 

[SIR ERNIE]

Best price 1/7 for promotion.

 

[Sky_Blue_Daz]

lets just finish the Job, and enjoy the ride

 

[fatso]

Appreciate stating the obvious but the two games against both Ipswich and Southampton will define our destiny.

Said that before the Stoke and Middlesbrough games.

Its games against poorer teams that have cost us points, Hull, Leicester, Norwich and Wrexham for example.

We actually play better against the better teams.
Last night Borough conceded 4 goals which is equal to what they've conceded at home all season, and yet we only started playing well in the last 15 minutes.

It was the same against WBA on Saturday, we played well for 15 minutes at the start of the second half and blew them away.

Against better teams we will just play well for a bit longer and blow them away too.

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

People said the same about Luton...... People said it about Leeds when they went down..... No doubt people said it about us too. Reputation and squad "value" doth butter no parsnips.

The same will happen to Norwich if they take the same approach as Luton did, where they never seemed to act as if they were in a relegation battle until it was too late.

Successive windows of very poor recruitment and the squad stagnating led them to go down - the Jan window last season was the same where they just ended up bringing in players which weren't really quite good enough.

Norwich will likely need to invest, and invest well, in the coming window to put it right.

 

[CV22SBA]

Fuck AI...this season is an absolute anomoly..the table is messed up from 2nd place to 2nd bottom.

Norwich and Sheff United wont be anywhere near bottom 3.

After that...its take yoir pick..its never been so tight or competitive.

I think title winners 90 points. 2nd place as low as 85.

But 3rd to 6th will be as high as 80 to 72

Also 3rd from bottom will go down on 50pts.

What do i know.

Sheff Utd agree but Norwich are awful and will lose Sargent in January. I work with a Norwich fan and he's convinced they will be relegated.

 

[Robinshio]

I had a look back myself at some old league tables.

Last club to have 40+ points after 17 games and not go up was Bradford in 1988

was 87/88 season, they had 37 points from 17 games (so may need to look back further ??)

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-division-two/05-november-1987/

 

[bigfatronssba]

was 87/88 season, they had 37 points from 17 games (so may need to look back further ??)

https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-division-two/05-november-1987/

You're right, I must've scrambled my brain by looking at decades of tables!

 

[Gibbo]

All lost in the mists of time but in the 1963-64 promotion season we were absolutely pissing the league at Christmas when iirc we beat Barnsley 3-1 (I was there aged 10). We then went weeks without a win....

I think we even dropped out of the top 2, before a late revival saw is squeak in.

Counting chickens and all that

 

[bigfatronssba]

I've gone back to 1981. That is when 3 pts for a win come in, so its hard to compare before that.

Since then, 8 clubs managed to be on at least 40 points after 17 games. Every single one was promoted.

 

[shmmeee]

I've gone back to 1981. That is when 3 pts for a win come in, so its hard to compare before that.

Since then, 8 clubs managed to be on at least 40 points after 17 games. Every single one was promoted.

Who need ChatGPT? Great work

 

[Mild-Mannered Janitor]

Southampton and Ipswich will both get close to 90 points, we have to be above that this year.

 

[bigfatronssba]

Who need ChatGPT? Great work

I tried to get ChatGPT to do it but it just turned into an argument

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Also according to AI no team 45 points or more at game 20 has failed to be promoted. 5 from the next 3?

Fuck it, 9. I can’t see us losing atm and it will come, just as it did v Wrexham…

 

[bigfatronssba]

Southampton and Ipswich will both get close to 90 points, we have to be above that this year.

Southampton will need 2.27 points per game to reach 90. That is a big ask. It would 105 points over a season

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Southampton and Ipswich will both get close to 90 points, we have to be above that this year.

Southampton will need some record breaking form to achieve that. Which is possible of course

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Fuck it, 9. I can’t see us losing atm and it will come, just as it did v Wrexham…

5 games between now and Christmas Day. W3, D1 L1, 50 points and a big fat turkey on the 25th

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Southampton and Ipswich will both get close to 90 points, we have to be above that this year.

For Southampton to get to 90 points, they need to average 2.27 points per game for 29 games. That’s a bit optimistic, for context, we’re tracking in 2.35 right now.

Ipswich need 2.2 whereas we need to average little over 1.72.

 

[Gint11]

Appreciate stating the obvious but the two games against both Ipswich and Southampton will define our destiny.

Which we also said about Stoke away and then Middlesborough away. For now, the next and only challenge is Charlton

 

[clint van damme]

For Southampton to get to 90 points, they need to average 2.27 points per game for 29 games. That’s a bit optimistic, for context, we’re tracking in 2.35 right now.

Ipswich need 2.2 whereas we need to average little over 1.72.

They've won 3 on the bounce under their new manager but it's far too early to say foe sure that will continue.

 

[Londonccfcfan]

Appreciate stating the obvious but the two games against both Ipswich and Southampton will define our destiny.

I dont think they do. I get where your coming from.

But we will still be top after we play them and ahead of them.

The games that will define our season will be the HOME games vs Southampton and Ipswich.

By January 4th.

We would have played:

Boro A - 3 pts
Stoke A - 3 pts
Millwall A - 3 pts
Preston A -
Ipswich A -
Soton A -
Birm A -

Thats basically the Top 8 played away by 4th Jan.

 

[SeaSeeEffCee]

They've won 3 on the bounce under their new manager but it's far too early to say foe sure that will continue.

Might end up being a good thing that their caretaker is doing so well. Undoubtedly they’ll give him the full time job now but will he have the managerial experience and ability to navigate an automatics challenge later in the season?

 

[clint van damme]

I still think if we get 7 from our next 3 away games (big ask), then we will need a disaster not to get autos

 

[itsabuzzard]

I tried to get ChatGPT to do it but it just turned into an argument

Who won?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Might end up being a good thing that their caretaker is doing so well. Undoubtedly they’ll give him the full time job now but will he have the managerial experience and ability to navigate an automatics challenge later in the season?

They were massively underperforming their xG so this could well just be the data catching up anyway.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

They've won 3 on the bounce under their new manager but it's far too early to say foe sure that will continue.

66 points is to get to 90 points is 22 wins from 29. It’s technically doable but it’s not likely imo.

Without getting too carried away, they beat QPR, Sheff W, Charlton and Leicester. The manner of the last 2 wins were genuinely impressive and given the xG table, I believe that Southampton will be there or thereabouts come the end of the season.

In the same period we’ve beat 2nd place in the table away from home twice. That’s objectively more impressive.

 

[bigfatronssba]

Who won?

I was the one that stormed off in a temper so I guess it did