The final table prediction...top 6 or not? (1 Viewer)

[JAM See]

Statistically, we're due a wee wobble before the end of the season.

Of course other teams will too, but my gut tells me we'll miss the play offs.

Still been a fantastic run under FL, and if we can keep the current squad and manager then next season should be a different matter.

 

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[Mucca Mad Boys]

Statistically, we're due a wee wobble before the end of the season.

Of course other teams will too, but my gut tells me we'll miss the play offs.

Still been a fantastic run under FL, and if we can keep the current squad and manager then next season should be a different matter.

… The first 16 games of the season was our ‘wee wobble’.

I expect us to drop points over the next 12 games, but we just play too many weak teams in the division to really cock this up. We’ve got winning records v Sunderland and Boro as a cushion.

 

[steve cooper]

who will all be playing like title contenders going into the end of the season

If they could play like title contenders they wouldn't be in the bottom 8 would they?

 

[Otis]

I’m just curious how you did the maths?

I’ve put out a lot of material on this topic. The bookies have us finishing 5th for a reason, we’ve beaten every team around us home and away in Jan and Feb.

WBA away form has been tragic, they’ve drew against some of the bottom teams in the league with terrible home records. The only bottom half team away that they have away is Cardiff. Comparing us to WBA, we have the bottom 5 and Sheff U away whereas they have the top 3, and another 3 teams in the top half. Leeds, Burnley, Norwich, Bristol and ourselves have top home records at the minute and ironically, Sheff U is arguably their ‘easiest’ away game.

I’m pretty confident we’ll win 6-8 games from here.

Our record against West Brom isn't at all great is it. In fact, it's abysmal.

 

[Brylowes]

Our record against West Brom isn't at all great is it. In fact, it's abysmal.

It really is, but certainly not as bad as our record against both Swansea & Preston so we’ve proven that bogey teams don’t worry us anymore.

 

[San Francisco]

Barring an unforeseen cock up I think we'll make it and Blackburn will drop out. Some here have some horses to hold though, already talking about us playing Burnley in the final!

 

[Lamps]

Barring an unforeseen cock up I think we'll make it and Blackburn will drop out. Some here have some horses to hold though, already talking about us playing Burnley in the final!

That's me.

Sunderland are 11 points above 5th and 6th. 12 points above us. Not playing well and just lost their big signing Le Fee and Ballard for a couple of months in their defeat at home to Hull. If they manage to stay 4th/5th and we take the other spot we should beat them over 2 legs. All the teams around us are inconsistent so they should do it.

That would put us in the final.

All the inconsistent teams would be after 6th place. Can you see them beating the 0-0 specialists Burnley?

Burnley are only 2 points behind Sheffield United. But they had their 2 points deduction and just lost to Leeds where they actually looked like being the first side to beat them since November. But this isn't a foregone conclusion yet.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Our record against West Brom isn't at all great is it. In fact, it's abysmal.

Yep, I’ve accounted for 3 losses in the build up. I do feel like the stars will align at home because our home form has been outstanding under Lampard and WBA have struggled away.

The loss earlier on in the season could’ve went differently had we took a chance or two. WBA under Mowbray is a different animal, he’s not on the same level as Corberan and it shows. He’d have been my shout for the best manager in the league imo.

 

[TomRad85]

Our record against West Brom isn't at all great is it. In fact, it's abysmal.

Lampard does not respect bogey teams. West Brom will fall like the others.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

EFL CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL TABLE
1. Leeds United (C)
2. Burnley (P)
————————————————————
3. Sheffield United (PO - KO F)
4. Coventry City (PO - P)
5. Sunderland (PO - KO SF)
6. West Brom (PO - KO SF)
————————————————————
7. Watford
8. Bristol City
9. Blackburn Rovers
10. Middlesbrough
11. Norwich City
12. QPR
———————————————————
13. Sheffield Wednesday
14. Millwall
15. Portsmouth
16. Preston NE
17. Cardiff City
18. Swansea City
19. Oxford United
20. Stoke City
21. Luton Town
————————————————————
22. Plymouth Argyle (R)
23. Hull City (R)
24. Derby County (R)

key: (C - Champions) (P - Promoted) (PO - Playoffs) (PO - F - Knocked out in the final) (PO - SF - Knocked out in the semi final) (R - Relegated)​

I’m curious, how many points do you think we will finish on?

I’d love to finish above Sunderland because I’d prefer the away tie to be on a Saturday, a 11 or 12 point deficit seems beyond reach at this stage. Although, we’d need to reverse a 9 point deficit if we beat them at home so it’s not insurmountable.

 

[PUSB-We_are_going_up]

I’m curious, how many points do you think we will finish on?

I’d love to finish above Sunderland because I’d prefer the away tie to be on a Saturday, a 11 or 12 point deficit seems beyond reach at this stage. Although, we’d need to reverse a 9 point deficit if we beat them at home so it’s not insurmountable.

I can see them losing key players and dropping quite a few points and every other team around being inconsistent, under Lampard we average 1.94ppg so far and from the final 12 games (36 available points available) I think we’ll pick up 27 which is a ludicrous tally but if you look most of our fixtures are favourable and may be an unrealistic tally but it would leave us with 77 points meaning Sunderland will drop at least 21 points which may be too many but could happen

 

[PUSB-We_are_going_up]

To be precise on the results I expect us to Achieve the 27 points

Oxford - W (3)
Stoke - D (1)
Derby - W (3)
Sunderland - W (3)
Sheffield U - D (1)
Burnley - L (0)
Portsmouth - W (3)
Hull - W (3)
WBA - D (1)
Plymouth - W (3)
Luton - W (3)
Middlesbrough- W (3)

 

[Otis]

To be precise on the results I expect us to Achieve the 27 points

Oxford - W (3)
Stoke - D (1)
Derby - W (3)
Sunderland - W (3)
Sheffield U - D (1)
Burnley - L (0)
Portsmouth - W (3)
Hull - W (3)
WBA - D (1)
Plymouth - W (3)
Luton - W (3)
Middlesbrough- W (3)

I can definitely see us getting the 7 points, no problem. It's the other 20 I am worried about.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I can definitely see us getting the 7 points, no problem. It's the other 20 I am worried about.

Ace city fan

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

To be precise on the results I expect us to Achieve the 27 points

Oxford - W (3)
Stoke - D (1)
Derby - W (3)
Sunderland - W (3)
Sheffield U - D (1)
Burnley - L (0)
Portsmouth - W (3)
Hull - W (3)
WBA - D (1)
Plymouth - W (3)
Luton - W (3)
Middlesbrough- W (3)

I don’t know about you, but this season now feels like the L1 title winning season. We’re starting to hit our potential.

Oxford - W (3)
Stoke - W (3)
Derby - W (3)
Sunderland - D (1)
Sheffield U - D (1)
Burnley - L (0)
Portsmouth - W (3)
Hull - W (3)
WBA - W (3)
Plymouth - D (1)
Luton - W (3)
Middlesbrough- D (1)

This my absolute best case scenario. Realistically, we’ll probably lose 1 or 2 more and draw a couple more. If we can get one win against Burnley or Sheff U, that’ll be 100% confirmation for me that the team has got what it takes.

25 points does seem too high to be honest but we just seem to getting the job done right now and just don’t look like losing many games from here.

 

[PUSB-We_are_going_up]

I don’t know about you, but this season now feels like the L1 title winning season. We’re starting to hit our potential.

Oxford - W (3)
Stoke - W (3)
Derby - W (3)
Sunderland - D (1)
Sheffield U - D (1)
Burnley - L (0)
Portsmouth - W (3)
Hull - W (3)
WBA - W (3)
Plymouth - D (1)
Luton - W (3)
Middlesbrough- D (1)

This my absolute best case scenario. Realistically, we’ll probably lose 1 or 2 more and draw a couple more. If we can get one win against Burnley or Sheff U, that’ll be 100% confirmation for me that the team has got what it takes.

25 points does seem too high to be honest but we just seem to getting the job done right now and just don’t look like losing many games from here.

Its crazy to think we can get a high points tally from the final few games but with so many winnable fixtures and our current performance and nack of getting the job done I just cant see past us doing really well to finish the season especially with key players returning and other teams around us stuttering and getting injuried

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Its crazy to think we can get a high points tally from the final few games but with so many winnable fixtures and our current performance and nack of getting the job done I just cant see past us doing really well to finish the season especially with key players returning and other teams around us stuttering and getting injuried

The required points tally to go up could really be as low as 68 which would be 6 wins and 6 losses, hypothetically. Considering we’re playing 6 teams in the bottom 8, a Sheff U team stuttering at home, two teams we’ve got good form against in Boro and Sunderland at home (who are trending lower than their current positions)… there’s a lot of winnable games and we should do better than 18 points.

As you point out, we’ve got two big players to return so we have every right to be bullish about our chances.

 

[shmmeee]

Pessimistically

Oxford - D
Stoke - W
Derby - W
Sunderland - D
Sheff Utd - L
Burnley - L
Portsmouth - W
Hull - W
WBA - L
Plymouth - W
Luton - W
Boro - D

That’s 21, so 71 finish which would normally do it. Any less and I think we miss out.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Pessimistically

Oxford - D
Stoke - W
Derby - W
Sunderland - D
Sheff Utd - L
Burnley - L
Portsmouth - W
Hull - W
WBA - L
Plymouth - W
Luton - W
Boro - D

That’s 21, so 71 finish which would normally do it. Any less and I think we miss out.

That’s quite realistic.

There is this fear factor of WBA because of our poor form against them. However, their away form has been poor for a while now and they have a tough run of fixtures leading up to Easter.

It’s the one game we probably have to avoid losing the most. It’s shaping up to be a 6 pointer and if we win, who can stop us?

 

[Senior Vick from Alicante]

I said I would really start to think it was possible if we beat Preston based on breaking the curse of beating them. I think genuinely now we have a chance with the run of games coming, Franks record is 1.94 points a game in the league so we must be right to believe again. The stats point to somewhere between 71 and 74 points so if we don't blow it well be there, the caveat to those saying Blackburn will drop out is that they have a very similar run in to us.

 

[TomRad85]

That’s quite realistic.

There is this fear factor of WBA because of our poor form against them. However, their away form has been poor for a while now and they have a tough run of fixtures leading up to Easter.

It’s the one game we probably have to avoid losing the most. It’s shaping up to be a 6 pointer and if we win, who can stop us?

Our poor form against West Brom is largely because, pretty much since we dropped out of the Prem, they've been a better team than us. Started yo-yoing and getting those parachute payments at just the right time. It's no longer the case, we are a better team than WBA, our team is certainly worth way more.

 

[Macca1987]

So play-off dates out now
Thursday 8th May 6v3
Friday 9th May 5v4
Monday 12th May 3v6
Tuesday 13th May 4v5

 

[Lamps]

People need to drop their fear. We're not just Coventry City. We're Frank Lampards Coventry City.

Would anyone like to swap positions and games left with any side out of the top 4?

 

[Robinshio]

So play-off dates out now
Thursday 8th May 6v3
Friday 9th May 5v4
Monday 12th May 3v6
Tuesday 13th May 4v5

damn im away for what would be the 1st leg !!

 

[blunted]

Our poor form against West Brom is largely because, pretty much since we dropped out of the Prem, they've been a better team than us. Started yo-yoing and getting those parachute payments at just the right time. It's no longer the case, we are a better team than WBA, our team is certainly worth way more.

And one thing that has really surprised me is we get better gates than them now.

 

[TomRad85]

And one thing that has really surprised me is we get better gates than them now.

Better gates than teams that were getting higher crowds than us for years. WBA, Norwich, Wednesday etc... its great to see. The club has great potential.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

People need to drop their fear. We're not just Coventry City. We're Frank Lampards Coventry City.

Would anyone like to swap positions and games left with any side out of the top 4?

Since Lampard has come in, we’ve been the 4th best team in the league. Nov-Dec was a bedding in period because the games come and go so quickly. As soon as his team got more time with the players, we’ve gone from strength to strength.

EMC was on Sky/EFL podcast were he name checked Lampard and Joe Edwards impact as coaches.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

People need to drop their fear. We're not just Coventry City. We're Frank Lampards Coventry City.

Would anyone like to swap positions and games left with any side out of the top 4?

In terms of form, we’re in a better position than Sunderland even. They’re almost guaranteed a place in the playoffs but their early season form has petered out and personally wouldn’t back them to win the playoffs.

 

[JSL]

Both WBA and Blackburn are blowing hot and cold with no consistency. One of them will drop away. I just hope it's us that takes their place

 

[Lamps]

Both WBA and Blackburn are blowing hot anc cold with no consistency. One of them will drop away. I just hope it's us that takes their place

Since Lampard came in we have gone from 17th and just 2 points from the bottom 3 to just 1 point behind the pair of them. If we beat a side that's only had a total of 2 shots on target and 1 goal in the last 6 games we should go above at least 1 of them.

Just shows how well we're doing and how average they have both become.

 

[Lamps]

In terms of form, we’re in a better position than Sunderland even. They’re almost guaranteed a place in the playoffs but their early season form has petered out and personally wouldn’t back them to win the playoffs.

If they don't improve quickly they could struggle to stay in the top 6. Only 4 points from their last 4 games, the win was at home to Luton, and have been severely weakened with 2 big injuries. But the teams around and below would have to improve their results.

Their game at our place could be the one that knocks the stuffing out of them.

 

[Warwickhunt]

Our record against West Brom isn't at all great is it. In fact, it's abysmal.

How we lost at WBA god only knows we were quite good on the day and should have come away with a draw at least

 

[Otis]

People need to drop their fear. We're not just Coventry City. We're Frank Lampards Coventry City.

Would anyone like to swap positions and games left with any side out of the top 4?

I'd swap their points.

 

[Hobo]

To be precise on the results I expect us to Achieve the 27 points

Oxford - W (3)
Stoke - D (1)
Derby - W (3)
Sunderland - W (3)
Sheffield U - D (1)
Burnley - L (0)
Portsmouth - W (3)
Hull - W (3)
WBA - D (1)
Plymouth - W (3)
Luton - W (3)
Middlesbrough- W (3)

It's always easy writing them out like that. Expect a few shock results and not just for us.

 

[bigfatronssba]

Next 3 games are absolutely crucial

7 points or more, we make the play offs.

Anything less and we don't.

We have a tough couple of games after these three. We need to build up the points now