Not going to put figures on the table Godiva, for one thing I am not a valuer and for another it was only a scenario. Not saying they get all their money back btw - this is a part of a bigger fund and profits or losses are traded off within it to get overall value
Have put down how i think SISU might try to get out of this mess its about time others put down how they think SISU will or can get out of it given what we know. Because how they exit is the crux of the matter not the CCFC rent in my opinion
I accept some might think it is "operation premiership" ...... some seem to think the rent at £170k will make all the difference. So come on then put "yourself" (open invite to all) in JS's position and how would you plan your exit strategy, what gets your investors some of their money back. It is only opinions after all - including much of what I put down
I personally can't see how ACL can earn them (their investors) anything close to the £40m+ injected so far.
First of all, the lease is mortgaged around £15m and any bid lower than that would be countered by Yorkshire bank.
When you look at the business and take away £1m (ccfc rent) it looks like normal profit (excluding 2012 Olympics) are turned from a yearly plus at around £400k to a yearly loss around £600k. Even with an improved business model it will be hard to make a profit and thus hard to find a buyer. There may be twists and turns outside my limited viewpoint, but I fail to see how ACL can put much more than a tiny bandage on the arterial wound the £40m+ investments really is.
In the summer TF said all the sisu loans was (being) converted into equity. This makes perfect sense if sisu have realized the investors will never get back the full amount. If they have done this (no evidence yet, mind you! and it probably won't happen until the new rent is settled) it can only mean the funds have written down the loans.
It also mean a sale of the club is a simple matter of transfering shares for money. No need to negotiate a discount on outside loans. No need for an administrator. Keep it simple.
And - what if (!) - sisu in this proces have obtained a healthy portion of those shares themself? Then sisu have an excellent exit position when the club has finally cut its cloth to fit and produce a small profit. Debt free and running in black!
At that point - and maybe in only a couple of years - they will be able to walk away with a nice little pension. They have never put in money themself, so holding shares and selling them on will be pure profit.
This 'theory' is not as creative or impressive as yours, but it has one element I think gives it a little bit of credability: It provide a personal gain for sisu. Not their clients.
