Stick or twist? (1 Viewer)

[DazzleTommyDazzle]

From what we are told, SISU are currently running the club on a cash neutral basis.

I have no problem with that, we can't expect any owners to go on supporting losses indefinitely.

I can also completely accept that the "speculate to accumulate " argument is generally not an enticing one, when many of the other clubs may be doing the same.

However, we are now 3 months into the season and sitting pretty solidly in the top 6, with a good chance of closing the gap on the top 2 to one point on Tuesday. Unfortunately we have a bit of a defensive crisis brewing with Reda and Willis out long term and little or no cover left.

So - assuming that they have the access to additional funds - do we think that SISU will decide that now is actually a sensible time to put a modest additional investment in to allow TM to draft in defensive reinforcements to try to increase our chances of promotion?

 

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[NorthernWisdom]

I would always be of the 'stick'. Don't destroy potential on a gamble. If there is any spare cash, then use that for improving the foundations of the club i.e. the youth setup, scouting network, coaching facilities and (yes a stadium!).

Blow it and fail, and there won't always be next year whereas have a rainy day fund, then there will be. We're better off long-term finding the next Stokes or whoever, then spunking it away on a short term loan.

 

[Otis]

From what we are told, SISU are currently running the club on a cash neutral basis.

I have no problem with that, we can't expect any owners to go on supporting losses indefinitely.

I can also completely accept that the "speculate to accumulate " argument is generally not an enticing one, when many of the other clubs may be doing the same.

However, we are now 3 months into the season and sitting pretty solidly in the top 6, with a good chance of closing the gap on the top 2 to one point on Tuesday. Unfortunately we have a bit of a defensive crisis brewing with Reda and Willis out long term and little or no cover left.

So - assuming that they have the access to additional funds - do we think that SISU will decide that now is actually a sensible time to put a modest additional investment in to allow TM to draft in defensive reinforcements to try to increase our chances of promotion?

Yes.

They have backed him so far this season, so I see no reason they wouldn't back him this time too. Been impressed by the CCFC board this season. Very positive on the whole.

 

[Oz Howie]

Don't agree with your assumption that SISU have access to additional funds, and if they do they will not commit them. TM's only chance of more football money is from increased income (Crowds) or a decent cup run. Who is there from SISU that is capable of making the decision to increase their investment?

 

[I_Saw_Shaw_Score]

I would like them to give promotion a go and back TM & his staff to get us up this season but then again I'm living in a Footbll Manager fantasy land where you can't just turn off & start again.

 

[DazzleTommyDazzle]

I would always be of the 'stick'. Don't destroy potential on a gamble. If there is any spare cash, then use that for improving the foundations of the club i.e. the youth setup, scouting network, coaching facilities and (yes a stadium!).

Blow it and fail, and there won't always be next year whereas have a rainy day fund, then there will be. We're better off long-term finding the next Stokes or whoever, then spunking it away on a short term loan.

Generally I'd be of the same view.

However we do seem to have a chance to arrest our long decline and having caught the end of TM's interview last night, I got the impression - possibly wrongly as I came in part way through - that he was making a bit of a plea for help in getting in defensive cover.

 

[stupot07]

I think we have to see where we are in January, I'd be tempted to stick.

Although, with Morris leaving and TM had said we still had some funds left we could be able to bring in some defensive cover.


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[NorthernWisdom]

However we do seem to have a chance to arrest our long decline.

You could argue a top 8 finish this season, followed by promotion next would be a far more effective arrest of a decline than a top 6 this season, followed by a Swindon collapse next.

 

[Sick Boy]

Don't agree with your assumption that SISU have access to additional funds, and if they do they will not commit them. TM's only chance of more football money is from increased income (Crowds) or a decent cup run. Who is there from SISU that is capable of making the decision to increase their investment?

Why would a hedge fund have no access to additional money?

 

[DazzleTommyDazzle]

You could argue a top 8 finish this season, followed by promotion next would be a far more effective arrest of a decline than a top 6 this season, followed by a Swindon collapse next.

You could indeed - I'm a bit more concerned that if say Ricketts and Martin pick up injuries, we'll be left with youngsters and/or midfielders in central defence and then the top 8 might seem a distant dream.

To be clear - this wasn't a general point about investing "cos things are going better" - this was very specifically about can/should we cover the risk of a further depletion in our already stretched defensive resources.

If Jordan Willis hadn't just been ruled out for 4 months, the discussion is very different.

 

[Sick Boy]

Surely there is still a bit of the budget left to use as we didn't bring in Eagles?

 

[NorthernWisdom]

You could indeed - I'm a bit more concerned that if say Ricketts and Martin pick up injuries, we'll be left with youngsters and/or midfielders in central defence and then the top 8 might seem a distant dream.

To be clear - this wasn't a general point about investing "cos things are going better" - this was very specifically about can/should we cover the risk of a further depletion in our already stretched defensive resources.

If Jordan Willis hadn't just been ruled out for 4 months, the discussion is very different.

Yup, I get the point, but I also think the time to question is indeed if Ricketts or Martin were to pick up an injury. At the moment, we're seeing why a squad exists in the first place, to cover the injuries we have.

And youngsters need some game time at some point, or they'll always be potential, rather than the finished article.

Ultimately, we have to get to a stage of relying on our own, even if that compromises the short term.

(as an aside, pleasantly well... pleased that Ricketts reverses our trend of signing veterans just at the stage where they're past it, rather than just before!)

 

[DazzleTommyDazzle]

Surely there is still a bit of the budget left to use as we didn't bring in Eagles?

Hopefully so.

As I said earlier, I just thought I picked up a slightly different tone from TM in yesterday's interview.

 

[DazzleTommyDazzle]

Yup, I get the point, but I also think the time to question is indeed if Ricketts or Martin were to pick up an injury. At the moment, we're seeing why a squad exists in the first place, to cover the injuries we have.

And youngsters need some game time at some point, or they'll always be potential, rather than the finished article.

Ultimately, we have to get to a stage of relying on our own, even if that compromises the short term.

(as an aside, pleasantly well... pleased that Ricketts reverses our trend of signing veterans just at the stage where they're past it, rather than just before!)

You know the old comment about - "you can tell a Ref's had a good game when you don't notice him".

To me, this applies to Ricketts. Nothing spectacular, but just keeps on doing an excellent job with no fuss.

He's been a brilliant signing for us in my opinion.

 

[stupot07]

Hopefully so.

As I said earlier, I just thought I picked up a slightly different tone from TM in yesterday's interview.

He's probably disappointed that being in the top 6, playing entertaining football and having an unbeaten home record in which we've Played 7 won 5 drawn 2 scored 14 goals isn't enticing more fans through the door.


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[DazzleTommyDazzle]

He's probably disappointed that being in the top 6, playing entertaining football and having an unbeaten home record in which we've Played 7 won 5 drawn 2 scored 14 goals isn't enticing more fans through the door.


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I could understand that.

I am too.

 

[RFC]

He's probably disappointed that being in the top 6, playing entertaining football and having an unbeaten home record in which we've Played 7 won 5 drawn 2 scored 14 goals isn't enticing more fans through the door.


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Feel sure that's what he was getting at!

 

[Specs WT-R75]

The problem that we have got is that the majority of our players are either loans or out of contract at the end of the year.

So if we finish top 6 and fail to go up then the majority of the team is not going to be here next year, so whilst I have every confidence in Mowbray to recruit the right players again next year there is no guarantee they will be as good as this years loans... that's the chance you take with youth loans.

For that reason I am not suggesting breaking the bank, but there is never going to be a better time for Sisu to get ROI here. If they came out with a statement and said something along the lines of "we are investing a small amount of equity 250-500k for TM in January for loans/signing fee and encourage all city fans that might still be on the fence to do the same...."

Will it happen, probably not - the reality is with attendances slightly over budget TM has a small surplus to play with anyway. A cup run (Man Utd away!) would be really useful about now.

 

[chinamans view]

Don't worry Im sure TM will get at least one defender in this week. just needs to push it over the line.

 

[shmmeee]

The fan in me says the Reda injury (along with Willis' setback) is a special case and it'd be a shame to let what looks a potentially club changing season go to waste because of it.

I wouldn't sanction any other spending though. Apart from if Arma goes back.

There's a good chance that Mowbray will bring in a CB within the set budget anyway and either keep Arma or replace him within budget and all this is moot.

Unless an excellent deal for a player with a good chance of getting a return comes up it'll be down to the wage budget mostly and it seems we are well below that as it stands.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

The fan in me says the Reda injury (along with Willis' setback) is a special case

I'd say signing Reda in the first place means you have to expect him to be out a fair proportion, and that's why Martin's here, to cover when that happens.

It's a fair point that Willis is maybe not so expected, but then any loan signing would expect to play (or would be an irrelevance, such as Jackson(?) from Middlesbrough) so we may as well wait until we *need* rather than *want*.

 

[NorthernWisdom]

So - assuming that they have the access to additional funds - do we think that SISU will decide that now is actually a sensible time to put a modest additional investment in to allow TM to draft in defensive reinforcements to try to increase our chances of promotion?

A cup exit makes me more favourably disposed to this view as now a league dip could be catastrophic for interest.

 

[stevefloyd]

Maybe we have more in the budget than is perceived and TM is doing a great job playing his cards close to his chest.. get loans in get us promoted then go buy permanent players of a higher standard

 

[Specs WT-R75]

Maybe we have more in the budget than is perceived and TM is doing a great job playing his cards close to his chest.. get loans in get us promoted then go buy permanent players of a higher standard

As much as I would love this to be the case, I just doubt it very much. If we get promoted then there will be a bigger budget due to higher average attendances (including away attendances), higher average ticket prices, more TV money etc. So it is inevitable that promotion would result in the signing of higher standard players regardless.

If TM had money to burn he would not be saying that he needs a good cup run to bring in more players...

 

[stevefloyd]

Neither would he be saying we have lots of money to splash out with only to be held to ransom by other clubs

 

[italiahorse]

You could argue a top 8 finish this season, followed by promotion next would be a far more effective arrest of a decline than a top 6 this season, followed by a Swindon collapse next.

The trouble is with all the loan players we are not building.
If we finish in the top 8 then we start again next year.

 

[torchomatic]

Which teams in outside the Premier have done for years. Remember Brum getting promoted only because they had the Arsenal striker whose name I can't remember.

The trouble is with all the loan players we are not building.
If we finish in the top 8 then we start again next year.

 

[oakey]

No team at any level is really "building" any more. Every success at our level is built on loans or if you own the player they get sold. It's always one step forward one step back. Only the few clubs at the summit have any security. The solution is a solid foundation of owners that will be canny (like Albion have had), a good manager and a lot of luck. We have only one of those IMO. If we did get promotion I would not trust the owners to let TM build on it.

 

[stupot07]

Which teams in outside the Premier have done for years. Remember Brum getting promoted only because they had the Arsenal striker whose name I can't remember.

They had Nicholas Bentdner, Seb Larson and Muamba on loan that season, not to mention spending £4m on sheffers and £4m in Cameron Jerome.

We can moan about loans, no different to having players on 1 year deals.

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[NorthernWisdom]

The trouble is with all the loan players we are not building.
If we finish in the top 8 then we start again next year.

I'm liking far too many of your posts recently. This worries me:thinking about:

 

[The Gentleman]

They had Nicholas Bentdner, Seb Larson and Muamba on loan that season, not to mention spending £4m on sheffers and £4m in Cameron Jerome.

We can moan about loans, no different to having players on 1 year deals.

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Arguably our best player is only a short term loan (6 month), so yes completely different to a season long loan like the 3 examples you used above (Larson was only 6 months but they signed him in the January) or signing a player on a 1 year contract.

Armstrong could be the firepower which shoots us to promotion if he was here for a season long loan. The chances of us getting promotion if he's only here 6 months are far less. Again, a massive difference.

Only 2 of our loans are for the season.

 

[stevefloyd]

I think its a slow progression to be absolutely brutally fair I think its best if we don't go up this season, reason being I don't think we are strong enough in depth but having said that I would 100% love to get out of this league this season

 

[covcity4life]

i wonder if some fans will ever enjoy this season?

i mean it could all end with us being 7th ffs, but at least i have enoyed aug-november so far.

to moan through good times only to moan more during bad times.what is the point?

 

[stevefloyd]

Hey I am not moaning I am enjoying this roller coaster ride and for once it isn't making me feel sick

 

[italiahorse]

They had Nicholas Bentdner, Seb Larson and Muamba on loan that season, not to mention spending £4m on sheffers and £4m in Cameron Jerome.

We can moan about loans, no different to having players on 1 year deals.

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But our loans are not for a year and they seem to be called back at a moments notice.
If you want to build you need to tie players up for at least 2 years.