XG underperformers (2 Viewers)

napolimp said:

There's always one who looks it up to make themselves look smart.

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I genuinely didn’t look it up! But your clue saying you were surprised he managed a shot on goal and then Parks saying it was over his career at other teams not necessarily us is what gave it away!

Ccfcisparks said:

COH scored 4 less than expected in our first champ season and 7 less than expected in the second. To be fair last season he did score 2 more than expected so does give credence to his finishing having improved when he came back from injury.

interesting reading.

in his only Championship season Biamou scored 3.3 goals less than expected @Sick Boy

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I’m pretty convinced that COH’s run in Dec-Feb was a flash in the pan. He was on unreal form but never believed he’d be a 10-20 goal a season midfielder. IMO, Rudoni will be the better player for us even if his own xG stats aren’t great (last season at least).

I have the same reservations about Sakamoto’s form too, for what it’s worth.

To be honest the best way to tell best/worst finishers is their difference between XG and XGOT. Can’t find any data that immediately shows this though.

Ccfcisparks said:

COH scored 4 less than expected in our first champ season and 7 less than expected in the second. To be fair last season he did score 2 more than expected so does give credence to his finishing having improved when he came back from injury.

interesting reading.

in his only Championship season Biamou scored 3.3 goals less than expected @Sick Boy

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Chances are Biamou's stats aren't too bad because he'd score some absolute worldies with a miniscule xG.

skybluecam said:

It is.

Who’s the better finisher? A player who had 100 xg and scored 90 or a player who had 10 xg and scored 1? It’s obviously the first one, but since this stat is a simple subtraction it will rank the first guy “worse”.

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Fair point, though on a per 90 basis subject to a minimum appearances / game time threshold it's fine

Ccfcisparks said:

Would not surprise me about Saka as he was our greatest xG outperformer last season

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I think he's quite one dimensional and can't see him being the long term answer in that position

fernandopartridge said:

I think he's quite one dimensional and can't see him being the long term answer in that position

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seems to cause consistent problems for defenders but i kind of agree - can see him ending up as a great "super sub" player

ccfcricoh said:

seems to cause consistent problems for defenders but i kind of agree - can see him ending up as a great "super sub" player

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In terms of output expressed as goals and assists, he can be quite low. Under FL, he's been encouraged to cut in and cross more which was more of a rarity under MR, he would typically jink with his dribble moves and then lay it to MVE on the overlap.

Some of his goals last season were superb strikes but struck me as a purple patch to be honest, hopefully he's encouraged to shoot more because his placement of shots can be very accurate.

In the longer term, EMC and Wright would be my winger combination, probably EMC on the right. There are options though as we could do a 4-4-2 with Rudoni and EMC as wingers (fitting Wright, EMC + striker). Looking at our team, we need goals because Rudoni and EMC are our top scorers barring Wright who's injured.