Where will we finish? (1 Viewer)

Astute · Feb 1, 2014

Have just had a look at the league table. Out of the top 8 sides we have at least one game in hand over all of them except for Orient and Preston who have played the same amount of games. And we are 12 points outside the playoffs with 19 games to go.

Have also looked at our recent league form. We certainly have suffered once the injuries started as is expected for the time of the year. In the last 12 league games we have only lost 4, but 5 have been drawn games and only 3 wins. A grand total of 14 points in the last 12 games. But we are still quite close to the top 6 after this run. So it shows that a decent run with our new signings could have us move quickly up the table. And then we also have Wilson to come back.

Sounds like a big ask.....but bored and been up for a couple of hours now so decided to look at our run in. Our next game is at 'home' to Walsall. They are 6th but I see the game as winnable.

Then the next 8 games are against clubs below us in the table.....and they didn't lose 10 points either.

We only have to play 2 teams in the top 5.

We are in 11th, we have 13 clubs below us. We have to play 12 of them in our remaining 19 games.There is only Crawley we don't have to play that are below us. And I say again that these 13 clubs below us didn't lose 10 points either.

The bottom 6 have averaged less than a point a game

We have to play the bottom 9 clubs...Oldham the highest out of them in 16th with 30 points from 28 games.

Our loan signings could tear up this division.

Looking at all the facts I would say that the bookies are being very generous. Have had another little flutter at 22/1 for us to be promoted. If today's 'home' game against Walsall goes ahead and we win our odds will tumble. We will be 9 points off the playoffs and 2 games in hand. Only Peterboro are within 5 points of them and their game today has been called off.

Does anyone think we won't make the playoffs now?

mark82 · Feb 1, 2014

We could do it but new boys need to hit the ground running and we need to do something we haven't done in a long time, string a number of wins together.

Astute · Feb 1, 2014

We put a good run together before our bad recent run started once the injuries started. the previous games before our recent run was......

Stevenage away league W 0-1

Orient away JPT D 0-0 although we lost on penalties.

Sheff Utd league home W 3-2

Wolves away league D 1-1

Orient home league W 3-1

Walsall away league W 0-1

Notts County home league W 3-0

AFC Wimbledon away FA Cup W 1-3

16 points out of 18 from 6 league games with a draw and a win in the cups. This included playing against the teams presently in 2nd, 3rd and 6th.....who we are due to play again today.

covmark · Feb 1, 2014

Think the playoffs are out of reach tbh. Hope I'm proved wrong, if our loanees hit the ground running and we can tighten up a little at the back, then maybe we have a chance.

Astute · Feb 1, 2014

We must have the easiest run in. Win today and we will be 9 points off the playoffs with 2 games in hand.

Lose today and I will agree with you. We would be 14 points off them. But whatever happens today our next 8 games are to clubs below us.

bigfatronssba · Feb 1, 2014

Basically to have any chance we can't lose more than 4 games.

Too much to ask I think.

standupforcity · Feb 1, 2014

Astute said:
Have just had a look at the league table. Out of the top 8 sides we have at least one game in hand over all of them except for Orient and Preston who have played the same amount of games. And we are 12 points outside the playoffs with 19 games to go.

Have also looked at our recent league form. We certainly have suffered once the injuries started as is expected for the time of the year. In the last 12 league games we have only lost 4, but 5 have been drawn games and only 3 wins. A grand total of 14 points in the last 12 games. But we are still quite close to the top 6 after this run. So it shows that a decent run with our new signings could have us move quickly up the table. And then we also have Wilson to come back.

Sounds like a big ask.....but bored and been up for a couple of hours now so decided to look at our run in. Our next game is at 'home' to Walsall. They are 6th but I see the game as winnable.

Then the next 8 games are against clubs below us in the table.....and they didn't lose 10 points either.

We only have to play 2 teams in the top 5.

We are in 11th, we have 13 clubs below us. We have to play 12 of them in our remaining 19 games.There is only Crawley we don't have to play that are below us. And I say again that these 13 clubs below us didn't lose 10 points either.

The bottom 6 have averaged less than a point a game

We have to play the bottom 9 clubs...Oldham the highest out of them in 16th with 30 points from 28 games.

Our loan signings could tear up this division.

Looking at all the facts I would say that the bookies are being very generous. Have had another little flutter at 22/1 for us to be promoted. If today's 'home' game against Walsall goes ahead and we win our odds will tumble. We will be 9 points off the playoffs and 2 games in hand. Only Peterboro are within 5 points of them and their game today has been called off.

Does anyone think we won't make the playoffs now?

Love this thank you...it sounds thoroughly realistic and I think an exciting second half of the season lies ahead...I've thought for a while we can make the play-offs, and all this assumes all other teams aren't going to have a dip in form. Bring it on!

ohitsaidwalker king power · Feb 1, 2014

Astute said:
Have just had a look at the league table. Out of the top 8 sides we have at least one game in hand over all of them except for Orient and Preston who have played the same amount of games. And we are 12 points outside the playoffs with 19 games to go.

Have also looked at our recent league form. We certainly have suffered once the injuries started as is expected for the time of the year. In the last 12 league games we have only lost 4, but 5 have been drawn games and only 3 wins. A grand total of 14 points in the last 12 games. But we are still quite close to the top 6 after this run. So it shows that a decent run with our new signings could have us move quickly up the table. And then we also have Wilson to come back.

Sounds like a big ask.....but bored and been up for a couple of hours now so decided to look at our run in. Our next game is at 'home' to Walsall. They are 6th but I see the game as winnable.

Then the next 8 games are against clubs below us in the table.....and they didn't lose 10 points either.

We only have to play 2 teams in the top 5.

We are in 11th, we have 13 clubs below us. We have to play 12 of them in our remaining 19 games.There is only Crawley we don't have to play that are below us. And I say again that these 13 clubs below us didn't lose 10 points either.

The bottom 6 have averaged less than a point a game

We have to play the bottom 9 clubs...Oldham the highest out of them in 16th with 30 points from 28 games.

Our loan signings could tear up this division.

Looking at all the facts I would say that the bookies are being very generous. Have had another little flutter at 22/1 for us to be promoted. If today's 'home' game against Walsall goes ahead and we win our odds will tumble. We will be 9 points off the playoffs and 2 games in hand. Only Peterboro are within 5 points of them and their game today has been called off.

Does anyone think we won't make the playoffs now?

Nice analysis ... I could well risk a few shillings myself... BET365 at 22/1... at this moment according to oddschecker.

Sky Blue Pete · Feb 1, 2014

I would say top 10 but not top 6. Shame cause I cannot see us being in the same position next season

Rusty Trombone · Feb 1, 2014

We have conceded far too many goals, but so far the goals scored has kept us up with the pack. Obviously Wilson is still out for a while, but even when he's back I don't think we'll be scoring as many as before. I think the defence is still to weak so therefore my belief is we'll finish in the bottom half, but should be safe as the bottom teams won't be able to get enough wins.

That's a miserable start to the day.

standupforcity · Feb 1, 2014

Rusty Trombone said:
We have conceded far too many goals, but so far the goals scored has kept us up with the pack. Obviously Wilson is still out for a while, but even when he's back I don't think we'll be scoring as many as before. I think the defence is still to weak so therefore my belief is we'll finish in the bottom half, but should be safe as the bottom teams won't be able to get enough wins.

That's a miserable start to the day.

Our position 'today' is healthier than it's been for a very long time in my opinion...our prospects as they stand, are very good for promotion, never mind just the top six. The next couple of games are the key, and if we can get some winning momentum again...anything is possible with 19 games to go!

bigfatronssba · Feb 1, 2014

standupforcity said:
Our position 'today' is healthier than it's been for a very long time in my opinion...our prospects as they stand, are very good for promotion, never mind just the top six. The next couple of games are the key, and if we can get some winning momentum again...anything is possible with 19 games to go!

40 points from 19 games is needed.

For us to reach the play offs we now have to be the best team in the league until the end of the season. Not just one of the best, but the very best, and by some margin.

I'm just curious as to why you think that's likely?

shmmeee · Feb 1, 2014

bigfatronssba said:
40 points from 19 games is needed.

For us to reach the play offs we now have to be the best team in the league until the end of the season. Not just one of the best, but the very best, and by some margin.

I'm just curious as to why you think that's likely?

Surely we just have to be 6th best?

bigfatronssba · Feb 1, 2014

shmmeee said:
Surely we just have to be 6th best?

No we need 40 points.

Only the very top teams are going to get anywhere near that.

standupforcity · Feb 1, 2014

bigfatronssba said:
40 points from 19 games is needed.

For us to reach the play offs we now have to be the best team in the league until the end of the season. Not just one of the best, but the very best, and by some margin.

I'm just curious as to why you think that's likely?

You're not taking into account any other team's dip in form. I don't believe we are the only team susceptible to misfortune. We are in a position where it's possible, that's my point, and with our loans and Pressley's leadership, we cannot be written off! Look where we are with a 10 point deduction...brilliant considering our recent form...we haven't buckled as we have in the past....we are not the Coventry City 'of old'....we will come again this season and the prospects are exciting!!

M&B Stand · Feb 1, 2014

shmmeee said:
Surely we just have to be 6th best?

If we're the 6th best team from now to
the end of the season it'd be nowhere near good enough.

italiahorse · Feb 1, 2014

Got to say the play offs are in reach and if the squad is now as good as I feel it is we should get into 6th.

standupforcity · Feb 1, 2014

bigfatronssba said:
No we need 40 points.

Only the very top teams are going to get anywhere near that.

But we ARE a top team! Add the 10 points deducted and you'll see that very clearly!

standupforcity · Feb 1, 2014

bigfatronssba said:
No we need 40 points.

Only the very top teams are going to get anywhere near that.

We are a top team who've just added quality to our squad, and we have games in hand! Play-offs/promotion well in reach!!

stupot07 · Feb 1, 2014

shmmeee said:
Surely we just have to be 6th best?

We can't be 6th best because we have -10 points.

In fact we're already the 6th best team.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-one/2013-2014/true-table/full

Looking at this, we need to be at least the 3rd best team going forward - 40 points from 19 games - 2.10 per game which better than wolves.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors

stupot07 · Feb 1, 2014

The other problem is we concede too many goals, which means we'll always drop points here and there.

Top 6 is achievable but a massive ask and an outside chance IMO regardless of the quality we have.

My guess is we will narrowly miss out and finish 8th, 4 points shy of the plays off spot.

Also interesting, we're 3rd in the table vs too half teams and 9th vs bottom half teams, so our 'easy' running might not count for much.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors

dongonzalos · Feb 1, 2014

The loan signings are a complete 50-50

The Celtic lad in my opinion is tested and will be a success.

Delf he looked like he had a lot of potential at Villa. He looked quick and strong.

However he has not set the world alight when he has gone out on loan.

Rory has done the business in norther Ireland only.
He choose Swansea over Liverpool and Everton so he could break into the first team he is not at that level.

It will all depend in what SP gets out of them.

He has the best chance of getting the most out of them. However I imagine he does not like loan signings, as he demands all out passion and commitment, which with a loan signing because of the transient nature of a loan you do not always get.

Our squad is still threadbare others will get injured as with Pressley's style of play and the intensity, you need a suitable replacement for who gets injured in every position unfortunately we still don't.

A lot will depend on what Pressley can get out of these two strikers. Who his next signing is. Whether SISU allow him to loan to replace any other injuries. Then a little Lady Luck with who it is that gets injured. If it is Murphy a centre half or one of the strikers then we are screwed.

Shame we could not have made the signings in the summer and had a normal or even a small squad.

Mr T - Sukka! · Feb 1, 2014

Our defence is far too weak for top 6.

We lost our best strike partnership.

We are 8 points off drop zone, 12 points off play offs.

We are CCFC who dont do top 6 finishes.

You are a bit lacking in football knowledge if you think we can suddenly turn it round to be the best team in the division until the end of the season.

Block19 · Feb 1, 2014

I think we will finish 10th and 16 points off the playoffs. Forget the -10 our defence has cost us more than that this season. I think the Bradford and tranmere games just cost us, I know we bounced back with a few wins but we just lost that bit of charge and have never really looked liked getting in the playoffs since then

standupforcity · Feb 1, 2014

Mr T - Sukka! said:
Our defence is far too weak for top 6.

We lost our best strike partnership.

We are 8 points off drop zone, 12 points off play offs.

We are CCFC who dont do top 6 finishes.

You are a bit lacking in football knowledge if you think we can suddenly turn it round to be the best team in the division until the end of the season.

Mr T - Sukka! said:
Our defence is far too weak for top 6. Even with weak defence, add 10 points for true position

We lost our best strike partnership. Quality strikers brought in

We are 8 points off drop zone, 12 points off play offs. Games in hand

We are CCFC who dont do top 6 finishes. We are not 'old ' CCFC

You are a bit lacking in football knowledge if you think we can suddenly turn it round to be the best team in the division until the end of the season.Already one of the best teams and can get better. Under Pressley this is a 'new' club!

Astute · Feb 1, 2014

If we hadn't lost the 10 points we would be 2 points off 6th with two games in hand. That is after going on a bad run once the injuries started coming.

Nobody knows how many points we will need. At least 1 club normally comes from mid table and makes it into the top 6. Why not us? I have faith in our manager. I have faith in most of our players. And if these loan players are as good as we are lead to believe then that club can be us. We have recently played games without a striker.....and the last game we played we did have a striker, but he is only 16.

Sky Blue Kid · Feb 1, 2014

Heart says playoff a possibility, head says bottom half finish, maybe even a flirt with the bottom 4. With Wilson still a few weeks away, and no proven striker, and weak defence, I think it's a step too far guys.

stupot07 · Feb 1, 2014

Astute said:
If we hadn't lost the 10 points we would be 2 points off 6th with two games in hand. That is after going on a bad run once the injuries started coming.

Nobody knows how many points we will need. At least 1 club normally comes from mid table and makes it into the top 6. Why not us? I have faith in our manager. I have faith in most of our players. And if these loan players are as good as we are lead to believe then that club can be us. We have recently played games without a striker.....and the last game we played we did have a striker, but he is only 16.

It could be us, but we have to acknowledge its only an outside chance. You mentioned Yeovil in another thread, but they were 4points off plays with 1 game in hand, and 8 more points than we had at the same stage (27 games played) last season.

Unfortunately we lost the 10 points, we're playing well and i have faith in Pressley but still think it's an outside chance.

Yep, no one knows how many point we'll need but we can have a pretty good idea, just like when you're looking over your shoulder trying to work how many will make you safe.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - so please excuse any spelling or grammar errors

BackRoomRummermill · Feb 1, 2014

There is always a team that has a great run into playoffs in the latter half of the season , it might be us , if we do it then we will win the playoffs , if we don't then as long as we stay up !

Astute · Feb 1, 2014

Like I said the best thing we can do is see what happens today. If we play and beat a side we have already beat away this season we will be 9 points off the playoffs with 2 games in hand. Lose today and I will agree that it is about over.

Just noticed that the game is off :facepalm:

Good news as it gives a little more time for the new players to get to know their team mates. And also gives Wilson one more game to play towards the end of the season. We could even be playing them for 6th place by then.

bigfatronssba · Feb 1, 2014

standupforcity said:
But we ARE a top team! Add the 10 points deducted and you'll see that very clearly!

Add the 10 points back on and I see a team a team 2 points off the play offs.

Huckerby · Feb 1, 2014

bigfatronssba said:
Add the 10 points back on and I see a team a team 2 points off the play offs.

..and 2 games in hand

bigfatronssba · Feb 1, 2014

Huckerby said:
..and 2 games in hand

Either way, this team is a top 6 team at best.

With the -10 we needed to be a top 2 team to stand a chance.

Huckerby · Feb 1, 2014

bigfatronssba said:
Either way, this team is a top 6 team at best.

With the -10 we needed to be a top 2 team to stand a chance.

Yep. But football is a funny old game, we could just scrape 6th place and then sneak our way up. Here's to hoping...

Specs WT-R75 · Feb 1, 2014

Astute said:
Have just had a look at the league table. Out of the top 8 sides we have at least one game in hand over all of them except for Orient and Preston who have played the same amount of games. And we are 12 points outside the playoffs with 19 games to go.

Have also looked at our recent league form. We certainly have suffered once the injuries started as is expected for the time of the year. In the last 12 league games we have only lost 4, but 5 have been drawn games and only 3 wins. A grand total of 14 points in the last 12 games. But we are still quite close to the top 6 after this run. So it shows that a decent run with our new signings could have us move quickly up the table. And then we also have Wilson to come back.

Sounds like a big ask.....but bored and been up for a couple of hours now so decided to look at our run in. Our next game is at 'home' to Walsall. They are 6th but I see the game as winnable.

Then the next 8 games are against clubs below us in the table.....and they didn't lose 10 points either.

We only have to play 2 teams in the top 5.

We are in 11th, we have 13 clubs below us. We have to play 12 of them in our remaining 19 games.There is only Crawley we don't have to play that are below us. And I say again that these 13 clubs below us didn't lose 10 points either.

The bottom 6 have averaged less than a point a game

We have to play the bottom 9 clubs...Oldham the highest out of them in 16th with 30 points from 28 games.

Our loan signings could tear up this division.

Looking at all the facts I would say that the bookies are being very generous. Have had another little flutter at 22/1 for us to be promoted. If today's 'home' game against Walsall goes ahead and we win our odds will tumble. We will be 9 points off the playoffs and 2 games in hand. Only Peterboro are within 5 points of them and their game today has been called off.

Does anyone think we won't make the playoffs now?

Great post/research. As a long suffering fan I know that our record against teams below us is truly shocking... so whilst on paper it looks like we have a great run-in (and we do), the problem this season is the points we have dropped against teams that on paper we *needed* to be beating. Tranmere, Oldham, Crewe, Crawley... there is at least 6 points lost in those games and unfortunately I can only see us dropping stupid points against the lower teams second time round as well.

I hope I am wrong...

Where will we finish? (1 Viewer)

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