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Wasps downward spiral... (4 Viewers)

  • Thread starter CCFC54321
  • Start date Oct 20, 2018
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Nick

Administrator
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,396
Has Italia hacked your account?
 
Reactions: Skyblueweeman, chiefdave and Liquid Gold

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,397
Nick said:
Has Italia hacked your account?
Click to expand...

Whose? Mine?
 

Nick

Administrator
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,398
Grendel said:
Whose? Mine?
Click to expand...

Yeah.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,399
Nick said:
Yeah.
Click to expand...

Well no as Italia is a Wasps fan

I am just offering an opinion based on Financials and likely re-funding that they are not going to be leaving the City anytime soon.

The interesting thing is if we really believe we are building a new ground we must have a plan for the Financial backing that requires. In that case and given it seems Wasps are desperate and Derek Richardson needs his money back why do the owners not make a bid for the shares that own the lease.

We all know the answer and why.
 

duffer

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,400
Grendel said:
Well no as Italia is a Wasps fan

I am just offering an opinion based on Financials and likely re-funding that they are not going to be leaving the City anytime soon.

The interesting thing is if we really believe we are building a new ground we must have a plan for the Financial backing that requires. In that case and given it seems Wasps are desperate and Derek Richardson needs his money back why do the owners not make a bid for the shares that own the lease.

We all know the answer and why.
Click to expand...

It's an interesting opinion, but politely, I don't think it necessarily adds up. I don't think Wasps going down would pull us down, and in fact I think it would put us in a much stronger position if we did want to negotiate a deal on the lease with the ultimate lease holder (be that another company or the Council).

Having read again the Wasps bond prospectus, it looks to me like if Wasps go bust, the lease might well revert to the Council, though it could well become mired in legal wrangling (for once, without the club being directly involved!).

Either way though, I don't see that we'd get booted out, we'd then be the primary income source for whomever does take the lease over. And we'd also be the only obvious party who'd be interested in renting the ground.

I'm not saying this ends up with us owning the ground but it's not obvious to me how Wasps going pop ends up with us getting a worse deal than the one we've already got.

Wasps remain bullish about being able to refinance the bond. But money's tighter now than ever it was and by definition they would be a bigger risk having failed to pay it off without further borrowing. There's no way I can see of them refinancing it on better terms than the existing bond, which in itself puts their ongoing business under pressure. Interesting times ahead.
 
Reactions: Skyblueweeman, Moff, CCFC54321 and 6 others

Flying Fokker

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,401
Grendel said:
The other thing I don’t understand is what people think will happen if wasps go under. Unfortunately we have been put into a position where we now have to rely on their solvency to ourselves remain in business
Click to expand...
Good old Sisu.
 

Flying Fokker

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,402
duffer said:
It's an interesting opinion, but politely, I don't think it necessarily adds up. I don't think Wasps going down would pull us down, and in fact I think it would put us in a much stronger position if we did want to negotiate a deal on the lease with the ultimate lease holder (be that another company or the Council).

Having read again the Wasps bond prospectus, it looks to me like if Wasps go bust, the lease might well revert to the Council, though it could well become mired in legal wrangling (for once, without the club being directly involved!).

Either way though, I don't see that we'd get booted out, we'd then be the primary income source for whomever does take the lease over. And we'd also be the only obvious party who'd be interested in renting the ground.

I'm not saying this ends up with us owning the ground but it's not obvious to me how Wasps going pop ends up with us getting a worse deal than the one we've already got.

Wasps remain bullish about being able to refinance the bond. But money's tighter now than ever it was and by definition they would be a bigger risk having failed to pay it off without further borrowing. There's no way I can see of them refinancing it on better terms than the existing bond, which in itself puts their ongoing business under pressure. Interesting times ahead.
Click to expand...
If nothing else we would offset running costs to a degree.
 

Flying Fokker

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,403
Brighton Sky Blue said:
I think people keep forgetting we aren’t the only entity in their portfolio
Click to expand...
Tim Fisher would like that comment! Brings to mind ‘We are the only show in town’.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,404
Flying Fokker said:
Tim Fisher would like that comment! Brings to mind ‘We are the only show in town’.
Click to expand...

I don’t think he would.
 

FulltimeWum

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,405
duffer said:
It's an interesting opinion, but politely, I don't think it necessarily adds up. I don't think Wasps going down would pull us down, and in fact I think it would put us in a much stronger position if we did want to negotiate a deal on the lease with the ultimate lease holder (be that another company or the Council).

Having read again the Wasps bond prospectus, it looks to me like if Wasps go bust, the lease might well revert to the Council, though it could well become mired in legal wrangling (for once, without the club being directly involved!).
Click to expand...


I enjoy ploughing through a mundane PDF as much as anyone, but that one is over 200 pages long. Any edited highlights?
 
Reactions: duffer

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,406
FulltimeWum said:
I enjoy ploughing through a mundane PDF as much as anyone, but that one is over 200 pages long. Any edited highlights?
Click to expand...

Richardson can retain total control if he wants to
 

duffer

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,407
FulltimeWum said:
I enjoy ploughing through a mundane PDF as much as anyone, but that one is over 200 pages long. Any edited highlights?
Click to expand...

Mate, compared to those judicial review documents that prospectus is like a haiku. Where's your staying power?

Just for you then....

The bond issue fails,
As the franchise falls apart,
Flags and fireworks, end.
 
Reactions: Skyblueweeman, eastwoodsdustman and Moff

duffer

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,408
Grendel said:
Richardson can retain total control if he wants to
Click to expand...

Absolutely. As long as he's willing and able to keep throwing money at a loss making business.

Given part of the reason for the bond was to pay him back (circa 10m, iirc), that might be in doubt.

And either an expensive refinancing of the bond, or a failure to refinance and a default, would really make him have to dip into his pockets.

Losses would increase in the first case, and profits would greatly reduce in the latter (with the benefits of the lease going elsewhere).

Financially, they're in a very tight spot, imho.
 
Reactions: Skyblueweeman
W

wingy

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,409
duffer said:
Absolutely. As long as he's willing and able to keep throwing money at a loss making business.

Given part of the reason for the bond was to pay him back (circa 10m, iirc), that might be in doubt.

And either an expensive refinancing of the bond, or a failure to refinance and a default, would really make him have to dip into his pockets.

Losses would increase in the first case, and profits would greatly reduce in the latter (with the benefits of the lease going elsewhere).

Financially, they're in a very tight spot, imho.
Click to expand...
Yet the bond has recovered to near full value.
10000 were traded recently.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,410
I agree with G, would love the gratification of them going bust but it isn't going to happen.

I think they'll refinance the bond, at the end of the day they've met all the interest payments and that's good enough for the investors in these markets. Whilst their own gates are in decline, they now have a long term deal in place with the football club which is currently going in the opposite direction.

I can't remember the entire implications of a default but the bondholders have the first legal charge over the lease which I believe is precedent over CCC.
 
Reactions: Sick Boy and Grendel

duffer

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 17, 2022
  • #3,411
wingy said:
Yet the bond has recovered to near full value.
10000 were traded recently.
Click to expand...

I think it's at about 89 now, original price 100. But it matures in May, so I believe there's only one interest payment left. I stand to be corrected, but I think that means if you bought at 89 now, then in May you'd get 103.25.

That, of course, assumes that the bond can be fully repaid. If you were confident of that, it's not a bad return. The price, to me at least, suggests that there's not complete confidence.

I'm obviously not neutral, but I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole. The downside risk is much bigger than the upside benefit, I'd suggest. Others will differ though, I'm sure. We'll soon see...
 
Reactions: Skyblueweeman, Moff, CCFC54321 and 1 other person

duffer

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,412
fernandopartridge said:
I agree with G, would love the gratification of them going bust but it isn't going to happen.

I think they'll refinance the bond, at the end of the day they've met all the interest payments and that's good enough for the investors in these markets. Whilst their own gates are in decline, they now have a long term deal in place with the football club which is currently going in the opposite direction.

I can't remember the entire implications of a default but the bondholders have the first legal charge over the lease which I believe is precedent over CCC.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I'd be quite as confident. The first bond was about making Wasps the biggest team in Europe and investing heavily in the team to increase profits. It hasn't worked, and they've had to go back to investors to loosen the earnings covenants (and hence, the mitigation against loss). Not a good look for future neutral investors, surely.

And how do they sell a second bond, most of it will be used to repay the first? It's akin to paying your mortgage with your credit card, unsustainable in the long term.

Additionally, I haven't read anything that says the bondholders take precedence over the Council; the prospectus states that the lease could revert to the Council if there's an insolvency event. It's definitely not clear cut either way from what I can see.

The one thing I would agree with is that Richardson is the key player here. If he tires of putting his hand in his pocket, I think Wasps could be done. One can only hope, of course.
 
Reactions: Skyblueweeman, CCFC54321 and Kneeza

duffer

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,413
And having read that last one again, it feels a bit mean-spirited.

I don't really want Wasps to completely fail, that would be harsh on their genuine fans and the players and staff that have no blame attached.

The ideal solution is for them to go approximately back to where they came from. I don't think they'd get many from Coventry travelling in the other direction to support them, mind...
 
Reactions: Skyblueweeman, CCFC54321 and Jagmannn

Gynnsthetonic

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,414
duffer said:
And having read that last one again, it feels a bit mean-spirited.

I don't really want Wasps to completely fail, that would be harsh on their genuine fans and the players and staff that have no blame attached.

The ideal solution is for them to go approximately back to where they came from. I don't think they'd get many from Coventry travelling in the other direction to support them, mind...
Click to expand...
Where to though, would Wycombe welcome them back or play at Wimbledon, Barnet, not all teams would welcome a full time Rugby Club, and what about the Henley in Arden training centre
 

Terry Gibson's perm

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,415
Gynnsthetonic said:
Where to though, would Wycombe welcome them back or play at Wimbledon, Barnet, not all teams would welcome a full time Rugby Club, and what about the Henley in Arden training centre
Click to expand...

Looking at their current crowds I would think that Coundon Park would be big enough as the memorial park would be way to big for them
 
Reactions: duffer

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,416
Gynnsthetonic said:
the Henley in Arden training centre
Click to expand...
If they did decide to move back to London I don't think the training ground is much of an issue. They took over an existing facility and as much as they claim its 'state of the art' there's not that much that has changed since it was a community facility. Could easily be reverted back to its former use which I'm sure the community would welcome.
 
Reactions: duffer and Gynnsthetonic
P

Peter Billing Eyes

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,417
With Oxford United’s plans for a new stadium, the Kassam could be looking for a new occupant. Surely that would suit Wasps’ demographic and with only 3 stands is more than big enough for them. They could probably retain their Henley In Arden training centre as well?
 
Reactions: duffer

Earlsdon_Skyblue1

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,418
Peter Billing Eyes said:
With Oxford United’s plans for a new stadium, the Kassam could be looking for a new occupant. Surely that would suit Wasps’ demographic and with only 3 stands is more than big enough for them. They could probably retain their Henley In Arden training centre as well?
Click to expand...

Do us a favour and email that idea to Wasps HQ!
 
Reactions: duffer and Peter Billing Eyes

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,419
chiefdave said:
If they did decide to move back to London I don't think the training ground is much of an issue. They took over an existing facility and as much as they claim its 'state of the art' there's not that much that has changed since it was a community facility. Could easily be reverted back to its former use which I'm sure the community would welcome.
Click to expand...

why would they move to London when they have a 250 year lease and a football club paying I assume over a million a year in rent?
 
C

CCFC54321

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,420
Grendel said:
why would they move to London when they have a 250 year lease and a football club paying I assume over a million a year in rent?
Click to expand...
I’d have a guess it’s because the project hasn’t and won’t work and nobody is interested in their product (the rugby).

If they stay here then it’s for outside rugby business reasons and would say it all that the rugby side of the project is secondary.

If they want the rugby team to succeed long term then in my opinion they need to go back to their routes. (London)

Everyone I speak to regarding London wasps has nothing but pure hatred for them. Their not wanted here and never will be.
 
Reactions: duffer and Grendel
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,421
CCFC54321 said:
If they stay here then it’s for outside rugby business reasons and would say it all that the rugby side of the project is secondary.
Click to expand...
But that's the whole reason they moved here in the first place.
 
Reactions: Sick Boy

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,422
CCFC54321 said:
I’d have a guess it’s because the project hasn’t and won’t work and nobody is interested in their product (the rugby).

If they stay here then it’s for outside rugby business reasons and would say it all that the rugby side of the project is secondary.

If they want the rugby team to succeed long term then in my opinion they need to go back to their routes. (London)
Click to expand...

So it’s worth surrendering a £60 million pound business which would ruin Richardson - whose buying it?
 
C

CCFC54321

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,423
Why does Grendel love London wasps so much? Is there something we should know.

Don’t bite Grendel just a simple question. Your tunes changed on here. Why out of interest.
 
C

CCFC54321

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,424
Grendel said:
So it’s worth surrendering a £60 million pound business which would ruin Richardson - whose buying it?
Click to expand...
He’s going to be bust at their losses!
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,425
Grendel said:
why would they move to London when they have a 250 year lease and a football club paying I assume over a million a year in rent?
Click to expand...
Hence the if, I was responding to Gynnsthetonic's comment not saying they're going to up and move tomorrow.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,426
CCFC54321 said:
Why does Grendel love London wasps so much? Is there something we should know.

Don’t bite Grendel just a simple question. Your times changed on here. Why out of interest.
Click to expand...

I don’t love them I’m just pragmatic and actually have a brain not just tub thumping rhetoric - the council gave them a free pass for life with a 250 year lease - also their crowds are no worse than when near London - blame the council - I’m just bored of the ignorant nonsense on here. The council and also dimwit Joy created this monster and it’s going nowhere
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,427
CCFC54321 said:
He’s going to be bust at their losses!
Click to expand...

What the fuck are you on about - the Sisu bank is owed more than Richardson in capital and interest and has zero assets - we are a bankrupt basket case
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,428
chiefdave said:
Hence the if, I was responding to Gynnsthetonic's comment not saying they're going to up and move tomorrow.
Click to expand...

well they never will move
 
C

CCFC54321

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,429
Grendel said:
What the fuck are you on about - the Sisu bank is owed more than Richardson in capital and interest and has zero assets - we are a bankrupt basket case
Click to expand...
I’m sure you only come on here to take your frustrations out because your not allowed to answer your missus back.
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Jan 18, 2022
  • #3,430
CCFC54321 said:
I’m sure you only come on here to take your frustrations out because your not allowed to answer your missus back.
Click to expand...

I think it’s the other way round - you are thick and talk shite you can’t even respond intelligently to anything I put to you. How much is the lease worth?
 
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