Esoterica
Well-Known Member
There's been some debate this week around goal difference, shooting stats, whether the formation should change or is it the players within it. I'd like to share some stats on when we score and how it influences the season.
It seems to me that when you score, especially against teams in the bottom 6 or 8 is very important. Score early against a poorer team like Tranmere and at best for them, if they have any fight in them, they have to chase the game which will open up the space for the technically better side to control the game. Or, at worst, their heads will drop and a team used to losing will be further demotivated - 'here we go again'.
The longer a poor team is in the game at 0-0 the greater their confidence will grow and the harder they will fight for a result, especially if they are the home team with a crowd behind them.
Sounds a bit cliche? Well here's our results against the bottom 6 in the previous 2 seasons with a breakdown of when our goals were scored/conceded:
The general consensus has been that we don't get results against the lower teams but in fact our record is excellent when we score our first goal in the first half of games. Combining the 2 seasons results against the bottom 6: when we have scored in the first half: W7, L1. Failed to score in the first half: W2 D5 L9. 11 points from 48 games.
And there we have the real issue in games. I believe we're too conservative in the first half of games. It feels like Robins is the kind of coach that would rather keep it tight until halftime and then be more expansive after the break, happy to get to half time and nick a 1-0 after. A 1-0 win is of course as good as a 3-0 win in terms of getting the 3 points but at 1-0 the game is never won until the final whistle. At 3-0 you can take your foot off the gas for the last 20 minutes, use subs to rest players instead of having to try to kill the game off, or bring on young emerging players for vital experience in a pressure free environment.
Simply, the best teams score early. Here's last season's stats for goals scored/conceded in 15 minute windows. I've combined the first two windows to show goals scored in the first 30 minutes of games, added league position and then sorted the table by goals scored in that opening 30 minute window:
We were right down the bottom for goals scored and yet you can see that there is a very strong correlation with League position and goals scored in that opening 30 minutes. Now, the eagle eyed among you (who haven't fallen asleep yet) will have also spotted our defensive record in the first half of games was the best in the league - just 15 goals conceded in 23 first halves. So here's the same table filtered on goals conceded in that opening 30 minutes, also with league position:
Now, of course, not conceding many goals helps with league position. A lot. But when you compare that to the league position it doesn't seem to correlate as strongly as goals scored did. The old adage that it only takes a second to score a goal rings true here but that applies to both teams, and the longer a game stays 0-0 the greater the danger of the kind of smash and grab that Tranmere performed on Sunday, which is also supported by the above results against the bottom 6.
And although the data set is still small for this season, it's a trend that is happening again - we've scored just 3 goals in the first 30 minutes of 12 games whereas most of our rivals, Wycombe aside, have already doubled that:
In summary, for us to get out of this division we're going to have to find a way to start scoring earlier in games because so much about football becomes easier once that happens.
It seems to me that when you score, especially against teams in the bottom 6 or 8 is very important. Score early against a poorer team like Tranmere and at best for them, if they have any fight in them, they have to chase the game which will open up the space for the technically better side to control the game. Or, at worst, their heads will drop and a team used to losing will be further demotivated - 'here we go again'.
The longer a poor team is in the game at 0-0 the greater their confidence will grow and the harder they will fight for a result, especially if they are the home team with a crowd behind them.
Sounds a bit cliche? Well here's our results against the bottom 6 in the previous 2 seasons with a breakdown of when our goals were scored/conceded:
The general consensus has been that we don't get results against the lower teams but in fact our record is excellent when we score our first goal in the first half of games. Combining the 2 seasons results against the bottom 6: when we have scored in the first half: W7, L1. Failed to score in the first half: W2 D5 L9. 11 points from 48 games.
And there we have the real issue in games. I believe we're too conservative in the first half of games. It feels like Robins is the kind of coach that would rather keep it tight until halftime and then be more expansive after the break, happy to get to half time and nick a 1-0 after. A 1-0 win is of course as good as a 3-0 win in terms of getting the 3 points but at 1-0 the game is never won until the final whistle. At 3-0 you can take your foot off the gas for the last 20 minutes, use subs to rest players instead of having to try to kill the game off, or bring on young emerging players for vital experience in a pressure free environment.
Simply, the best teams score early. Here's last season's stats for goals scored/conceded in 15 minute windows. I've combined the first two windows to show goals scored in the first 30 minutes of games, added league position and then sorted the table by goals scored in that opening 30 minute window:
We were right down the bottom for goals scored and yet you can see that there is a very strong correlation with League position and goals scored in that opening 30 minutes. Now, the eagle eyed among you (who haven't fallen asleep yet) will have also spotted our defensive record in the first half of games was the best in the league - just 15 goals conceded in 23 first halves. So here's the same table filtered on goals conceded in that opening 30 minutes, also with league position:
Now, of course, not conceding many goals helps with league position. A lot. But when you compare that to the league position it doesn't seem to correlate as strongly as goals scored did. The old adage that it only takes a second to score a goal rings true here but that applies to both teams, and the longer a game stays 0-0 the greater the danger of the kind of smash and grab that Tranmere performed on Sunday, which is also supported by the above results against the bottom 6.
And although the data set is still small for this season, it's a trend that is happening again - we've scored just 3 goals in the first 30 minutes of 12 games whereas most of our rivals, Wycombe aside, have already doubled that:
In summary, for us to get out of this division we're going to have to find a way to start scoring earlier in games because so much about football becomes easier once that happens.
Last edited: