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The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (18 Viewers)

  • Thread starter jimmyhillsfanclub
  • Start date Jun 8, 2016
Forums New posts

As of right now, how are thinking of voting? In or out

  • Remain

    Votes: 23 37.1%
  • Leave

    Votes: 35 56.5%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 3 4.8%
  • Not registered or not intention to vote

    Votes: 1 1.6%

  • Total voters
    62
  • Poll closed Jun 15, 2016.
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Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,311
clint van damme said:
what is your definition of short and long term?
I don't think a decade plus is short term, (though in the grand scheme of things it probably is). You may think it will turn around before that, if so what do you base that on?
Click to expand...
How long is a piece of string?

Short term a few years. It all depends on what sort of deal there is. A good deal and we might not even notice the difference. Neither would the countries that sell to us. But it isn't down to the business leaders who do want a good deal.
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,312
Astute said:
I will try once more with you on seeing if you can have an honest debate on the subject before I ignore you like I am with Mart.

Like where?

The EU don't alliw us to make trade deals with any country in the world. We still can't make any now until we have left.

The EU only has about 10% of the world population. And they would like a trade deal with us. We buy more than we sell. Are you saying that the other 90% of the world won't want to have trade deals with us once we are allowed to have them when most of our trade is already outside the EU without having trade deals?
Click to expand...

Why ignore someone you disagree with? It's better I debate rather than just ignore the other's opinion.
 
Reactions: martcov

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,313
Astute said:
I agree. A lot of our manufacturing has moved to cheaper places including around the EU. The quality has gone right down as well. The things we used to buy that you would replace years later when still working are replaced with items that don't last long. We need to get back to quality manufacturing where people buy our goods because of the quality.
Click to expand...

I would agree with that whether in or out of the EU but would add we need to make high end goods using cutting edge technology that can't be replicated cheaply in some foreign country.
The problem is we have a diminishing skill base which is why we are becoming less productive.
We need to be more productive to increase our tax revenues but to increase it we need to spend on training when we are trying to reduce the deficit and keep a tight rein on public spending, it's a conundrum.
 
Reactions: martcov and skybluetony176

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,314
Sick Boy said:
I have goods from various EU countries that are labelled as being made in their country of origin. I also have products that are labelled made in England.
Click to expand...
It could say the UK if only packaged here.
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,315
Astute said:
How long is a piece of string?

Short term a few years. It all depends on what sort of deal there is. A good deal and we might not even notice the difference. Neither would the countries that sell to us. But it isn't down to the business leaders who do want a good deal.
Click to expand...

if we leave the EU with a deal I will be a lot more optimistic about the future even though I still think we will have a rocky road ahead.
I think no deal will be disastrous.
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,316
Astute said:
It was supposed to be an instant disaster if we voted leave. Nearly all of it was wrong. Yes the £ took a hit. But that was bound to happen. Financial markets don't like uncertainty. But what about everything else we were told would happen?

No stock market crash
No house price crash
Unemployment didn't shoot up

Yes the opposite happened. All we can do is make predictions. Our productivity went up because the £ went down. Our goods became cheaper around the world. Their products cost more. If the £ goes down again our goods get even cheaper. That is how money markets work. That is how Germany has a massive advantage being in the Euro and the weaker countries a massive disadvantage.
Click to expand...

We were also told that we'd have £350m a week for the NHS; we wouldn't leave the single market; we would all be be better off fiancially; the negotiations would be the easiest in our history.

It's hardly surprising though when some were banging on about the colour of passports as being a major issue.
 
Reactions: martcov

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,317
Astute said:
It could say the UK if only packaged here.
Click to expand...

No, they are actually made in England. I also have clients who build products in the UK, which they use as a USP.
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,318
Sick Boy said:
Why ignore someone you disagree with? It's better I debate rather than just ignore the other's opinion.
Click to expand...
It isn't the disagreeing. It is the crap that comes with not wanting to admit being wrong and constant accusations. The not wanting to see anything they don't want to agree with. The impossibility of having a proper debate.
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,319
Astute said:
I agree. A lot of our manufacturing has moved to cheaper places including around the EU. The quality has gone right down as well. The things we used to buy that you would replace years later when still working are replaced with items that don't last long. We need to get back to quality manufacturing where people buy our goods because of the quality.
Click to expand...

Building quality is how the company I work for has survived. Good old fashioned belt and braces engineering. Some markets that moved away from it for fancy new technologies are gradually moving back as the old fashioned technology had a design life of 25+ years whereas the newer cheaper lightweight only has a design life of 5-10. Some industries we supply into have learned this the hard way. So in some respects by not changing we’ve found ourselves in a good place but here’s the rub. The reason we didn’t change the technology was simply because we couldn’t afford as a small scale manufacturer to adopt, invest, design and innovate the newer technologies so we didn’t change and manufactured to a niche, stepping between the cracks. The engineering we do is basic and fairly labour intensive but easy to set up if you know what you’re doing. This means that the big international companies can replicate what we do and what they used to do very easily and very cheaply and they already are on a small scale. I’m talking about companies like Siemens, Schneider, Borri and a few others. All with manufacturing based on the continent, all can do what we do and all can issue an EU C of O. We can compete on price with them on the smaller jobs which suits us as we can control our cash flow unlike on larger jobs, what we won’t be able to do soon is issue an EU C of O and that’s already looking to become a problem for us. Our market is looking to be slashed overnight. I doubt we’ll be alone either.
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,320
Astute said:
It isn't the disagreeing. It is the crap that comes with not wanting to admit being wrong and constant accusations. The not wanting to see anything they don't want to agree with. The impossibility of having a proper debate.
Click to expand...

There are plenty on the other side like that but you don't seem to pull them up?
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,321
Astute said:
This depends on the trade deal with the EU. But UK quality is seen as better than EU. They know where it is coming from.

I also work in manufacturing for a worldwide company. Our profits in the UK are massively better than in the rest of the EU. The problem that the UK has is we will need to bring manufacturing back into the UK.
Click to expand...

How does no longer being able to issue an EU C of O depend on a trade deal with the EU? We won’t be in the EU and that’s the problem.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,322
Astute said:
Why is the EU having problems making trade deals?
Click to expand...

Which of the grey areas on this map where the EU don't have a trade deal do you think are a rich vein to tap?

 
Reactions: martcov, skybluetony176 and Sick Boy

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,323
clint van damme said:
if we leave the EU with a deal I will be a lot more optimistic about the future even though I still think we will have a rocky road ahead.
I think no deal will be disastrous.
Click to expand...
Wouldn't we all.

All we can do is guess. I would say we have as much of a chance of getting a flying start as we do a bad start. Rocky road? Good possibility. But we have the advantage of having the £.

We have as much chance of guessing what will happen as I do guessing what sort of mood my wife will wake up in the morning with.
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,324
chiefdave said:
Which of the grey areas on this map where the EU don't have a trade deal do you think are a rich vein to tap?

View attachment 8433
Click to expand...

Aren’t the EU and Australia about to start trade negotiations? That leaves Russia and Antarctica from what I can see, maybe North Korea.
 
Reactions: martcov and chiefdave

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,325
skybluetony176 said:
Aren’t the EU and Australia about to start trade negotiations? That leaves Russia and Antarctica from what I can see, maybe North Korea.
Click to expand...

Australia ready to do post-Brexit trade deal – but EU comes first
 
Reactions: skybluetony176 and chiefdave

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,326
skybluetony176 said:
Aren’t the EU and Australia about to start trade negotiations?
Click to expand...
Indeed, there's also an issue that I read about in a Canadian paper. Canada are happy to talk to the UK about a trade deal however they won't commence talks until after we have left the EU as trade deals with the EU prohibit negotiations with an individual EU member.

Of course the same will apply elsewhere.
 
Reactions: martcov and skybluetony176

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,327
Sick Boy said:
There are plenty on the other side like that but you don't seem to pull them up?
Click to expand...
Look at this thread again then. Most days it is a witch hunt against anyone who says anything against the EU or Corbyn. Most days it is a one sided rant and not a debate. So it keeps going around in circles.

I have always tried to be polite and put across good and bad from each side. Have you ever tried havi g a debate with those who have a fixed view and will defend it whatever?
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,328
chiefdave said:
Which of the grey areas on this map where the EU don't have a trade deal do you think are a rich vein to tap?

View attachment 8433
Click to expand...
So what are these deals?
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,329
skybluetony176 said:
Aren’t the EU and Australia about to start trade negotiations? That leaves Russia and Antarctica from what I can see, maybe North Korea.
Click to expand...
You think that the EU has good trade deals over most of the world?
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,330
Sick Boy said:
Australia ready to do post-Brexit trade deal – but EU comes first
Click to expand...
Is that supposed to be bad news for the UK?

As they say they want a trade deal with us as soon as we have left the EU and they can't stop us anymore from making one. Do you think Australia are the only ones waiting for us to be able to?
 
M

martcov

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,331
Astute said:
So why did our exports go up then?
Click to expand...

Why is our gdp set to decline each year over the next years according to the chancellor?
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,332
chiefdave said:
Indeed, there's also an issue that I read about in a Canadian paper. Canada are happy to talk to the UK about a trade deal however they won't commence talks until after we have left the EU as trade deals with the EU prohibit negotiations with an individual EU member.

Of course the same will apply elsewhere.
Click to expand...
Exactly. Once we are able countries want to make deals. We haven't been allowed for years through being in the EU. And we have paid about 1.5 trillion to the EU over the years to lose this right to trade freely with the rest of the world.

That is why I can't see it as being a disaster for us.
 
M

martcov

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,333
Astute said:
It was supposed to be an instant disaster if we voted leave. Nearly all of it was wrong. Yes the £ took a hit. But that was bound to happen. Financial markets don't like uncertainty. But what about everything else we were told would happen?

No stock market crash
No house price crash
Unemployment didn't shoot up

Yes the opposite happened. All we can do is make predictions. Our productivity went up because the £ went down. Our goods became cheaper around the world. Their products cost more. If the £ goes down again our goods get even cheaper. That is how money markets work. That is how Germany has a massive advantage being in the Euro and the weaker countries a massive disadvantage.
Click to expand...

2 EU offices gone this week, gdp forecast reduced for at least the next few years, pound dropped again.... How does Germany have a massive advantage by the Euro being strong and stable? You just said a weaker currency has the advantage of reducing the costs of U.K. goods. According to that, Germany would also be better off with a weaker Euro.
 

Captain Dart

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,334
Sick Boy said:
We were also told that we'd have £350m a week for the NHS; we wouldn't leave the single market; we would all be be better off fiancially; the negotiations would be the easiest in our history.

It's hardly surprising though when some were banging on about the colour of passports as being a major issue.
Click to expand...

A small lie compared to this massive scaremongery
David Cameron: Brexit could lead to Europe descending into war

and this
George Osborne: vote for Brexit and face £30bn of taxes and spending cuts
 
Reactions: Kingokings204 and Astute

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,335
Astute said:
You think that the EU has good trade deals over most of the world?
Click to expand...

They’re better than WTO which is what we’ll be mostly defaulting to when we leave. We’ve then got to negotiate a trade deal with pretty much everyone.

Do you think we’ll be able to make better deals than we were enjoying as part of the EU? Because that’s the real test here isn’t it? Anyone can make a trade deal but if our trade deal with any given country isn’t at least equal to the one we had as part of the EU then we’re pissing into the wind. Who’s got more clout on the world stage? The worlds biggest trading bloc or a single country on its own?
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,336
skybluetony176 said:
They’re better than WTO which is what we’ll be mostly defaulting to when we leave. We’ve then got to negotiate a trade deal with pretty much everyone.

Do you think we’ll be able to make better deals than we were enjoying as part of the EU? Because that’s the real test here isn’t it? Anyone can make a trade deal but if our trade deal with any given country isn’t at least equal to the one we had as part of the EU then we’re pissing into the wind. Who’s got more clout on the world stage? The worlds biggest trading bloc or a single country on its own?
Click to expand...
Our trade deals will be what suits us and the other country. An EU trade deal is what suits the other country and every country in the EU. That makes a deal much harder to make. So yes I see better deals for us in many countries.
 
Reactions: Kingokings204
K

Kingokings204

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,337
Astute said:
Our trade deals will be what suits us and the other country. An EU trade deal is what suits the other country and every country in the EU. That makes a deal much harder to make. So yes I see better deals for us in many countries.
Click to expand...

Yes it doesn’t have to be a deal for 28. It could be a deal to suit us.
So yes I see many more better deals for this country again competence dependent.
 
K

Kingokings204

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,338
Captain Dart said:
A small lie compared to this massive scaremongery
David Cameron: Brexit could lead to Europe descending into war

and this
George Osborne: vote for Brexit and face £30bn of taxes and spending cuts
Click to expand...

The biggest lie of all was back at the start. We are only joining a common market. Remember that lie? Nothing comes close to that for me.
 
Reactions: Astute

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,339
Astute said:
Our trade deals will be what suits us and the other country. An EU trade deal is what suits the other country and every country in the EU. That makes a deal much harder to make. So yes I see better deals for us in many countries.
Click to expand...

EU trade deals are designed to protect it’s member states. That did include us. It protects us against inferior cheaper products such as American beef and poultry protecting our farm industry. The EU can achieve this against the mighty USA because it’s the worlds biggest trading bloc and has negotiating power because of that.

The USA has already mooted their inferior unethically farmed beef and poultry coming into the U.K. which isn’t good for our farming industry. We already have the government declaring animals can’t feel pain. Is this paving the way for a drop in animal welfare standards so our farmers can adopt US farming practices so they can compete with US imports? What other standards and principles that we hold dear might we have to give up and compromise on as a cost of leaving the EU and persuing trade deals with other countries. Some things aren’t a price worth paying and they aren’t always things that you can put a pound amount on and show on a spreadsheet. Principles being one of them.
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,340
Astute said:
Look at this thread again then. Most days it is a witch hunt against anyone who says anything against the EU or Corbyn. Most days it is a one sided rant and not a debate. So it keeps going around in circles.

I have always tried to be polite and put across good and bad from each side. Have you ever tried havi g a debate with those who have a fixed view and will defend it whatever?
Click to expand...

Yes quite a few times recently.

It's hardly a witch hunt against anyone, like yourself, who is against the EU. It's pretty evenly split as far as I can see. To claim otherwise is simply not true.
 
Reactions: martcov

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,341
Captain Dart said:
A small lie compared to this massive scaremongery
David Cameron: Brexit could lead to Europe descending into war

and this
George Osborne: vote for Brexit and face £30bn of taxes and spending cuts
Click to expand...

Ahhh yes multiple lies are just one small lie. What rubbish.
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,342
Astute said:
Our trade deals will be what suits us and the other country. An EU trade deal is what suits the other country and every country in the EU. That makes a deal much harder to make. So yes I see better deals for us in many countries.
Click to expand...

The deals will suit the other country, not the UK.
 

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,343
Sick Boy said:
The deals will suit the other country, not the UK.
Click to expand...

That’s the other danger of course if the brexit negotiations with the EU are anything to go by.
 

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,344
Sick Boy said:
Yes quite a few times recently.

It's hardly a witch hunt against anyone, like yourself, who is against the EU. It's pretty evenly split as far as I can see. To claim otherwise is simply not true.
Click to expand...
I am not against the EU. In principle it is good. But it includes so much that is bad. And they put egos before what is best for the people of the EU.
 
Reactions: Kingokings204

Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Nov 24, 2017
  • #9,345
Sick Boy said:
The deals will suit the other country, not the UK.
Click to expand...
What makes you say that?

If it don't benefit us we won't sign it. If it doesn't benefit them they won't sign it. There is a lot more to protect in 28 regions than just 1.
 
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