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The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (11 Viewers)

  • Thread starter jimmyhillsfanclub
  • Start date Jun 8, 2016
Forums New posts

As of right now, how are thinking of voting? In or out

  • Remain

    Votes: 23 37.1%
  • Leave

    Votes: 35 56.5%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 3 4.8%
  • Not registered or not intention to vote

    Votes: 1 1.6%

  • Total voters
    62
  • Poll closed Jun 15, 2016.
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Astute

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,816
djr8369 said:
Yes, I work in a field related to automotive emissions.

How what was a small thing? I have never tried to change history, I’ve gone out of my way to engage in the conversations and stated facts.


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Click to expand...
So was the biggest problem for JLR their diesel engines or not?
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,817
Astute said:
I blocked you because of the bullshit you kept coming out with. And that wasn't just a few weeks ago. I put your posts back on a couple of months ago and you was still coming out with the same bullshit then.

Hasn't happened? All the things I mentioned were supposed to have happened if there was a leave vote. It wasn't if and when we left.

So do you not have a clue about what you make out you know about or are you just trying to twist the truth?
Click to expand...

What bullshit? I’ve commented on this thread fairly infrequently and rarely engaged with you directly so I’d be interested to hear what was such bullshit.

No some of the things were if there was a leave vote (emergency budget) some of we actually leave. Think you’re being disingenuous there so it seems to be you who is twisting the truth. Your position is what, that some negative consequences didn’t happen yet so there can be no negative consequences to Brexit?


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Reactions: martcov and shmmeee
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djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,818
Astute said:
So was the biggest problem for JLR their diesel engines or not?
Click to expand...

No biggest problem is China sales.

Was this conversation about what their biggest problem is or if Brexit was one of their problems?


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Reactions: torchomatic, martcov and shmmeee

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,819
Astute said:
Isn't it amazing how I got ripped to bits by certain people on here for saying exactly the same about Corbyn and his way of leading Labour.

I will now sit back and watch you get exactly the same.

Or do we just see more utter bias?
Click to expand...

There are hardly any hardcore Corbyn supporters on this thread.
 
Reactions: torchomatic and martcov

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,820
Astute said:
We would have had a stronger hand if we would have negotiated. Anything would have been stronger than being dictated to.

A bit like you. House prices being astronomical in the UK is all the fault of the UK government but too high in France.....even though they are much lower than the UK in the most of France because people like myself have moved to France or bought holiday homes.

That one was cool. The fault of the UK government if in the UK but the fault of those from the UK if in another EU country. Yet you will still deny your total bias.
Click to expand...

It shows you have much less insight into French attitudes than you like to think then. The suggestion that areas of the country would collapse if it wasn’t for the British is absurd .
 
Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
Reactions: torchomatic and martcov

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,821
djr8369 said:
No. Some of this information is taken from public knowledge (27 scenarios) some of it from internal emails (1.2 BN - although I think this might have been publicly stated but I’m not certain). The emissions specific stuff has also all been in the news but is also the field I work in.


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Click to expand...

The Eu impact for leaving was marginal on JLR on its overall business.

In fact any deterioration of currency would be of benefit
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,822
djr8369 said:
No biggest problem is China sales.

Was this conversation about what their biggest problem is or if Brexit was one of their problems?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It wasn’t a problem as some of the impacts of Brexit would be s benefit
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,823
Grendel said:
The Eu impact for leaving was marginal on JLR on its overall business.

In fact any deterioration of currency would be of benefit
Click to expand...

What’s your source for this? How much would currency need to fall to cover this? How much would the supply chain need to be adjusted to gain any benefit from currency fluctuations? What happens if currency reverts back to historic levels?


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Reactions: martcov

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,824
djr8369 said:
What’s your source for this? How much would currency need to fall to cover this? How much would the supply chain need to be adjusted to gain any benefit from currency fluctuations? What happens if currency reverts back to historic levels?


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Click to expand...

The 2016 currency impact was the biggest percentage of its record profit year. The Fx in key markets was significantly in the companies favour and masked a fair few issues

The euro impact is non existent - some concerns would exist in terms of short term administration concerns if we crashed out but this would be a problem for all car
Manufacturers coming in or out.

The profit margins in the Far East are vast and the stated losses last year are not real
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,825
Grendel said:
The 2016 currency impact was the biggest percentage of its record profit year. The Fx in key markets was significantly in the companies favour and masked a fair few issues

The euro impact is non existent - some concerns would exist in terms of short term administration concerns if we crashed out but this would be a problem for all car
Manufacturers coming in or out.

The profit margins in the Far East are vast and the stated losses last year are not real
Click to expand...

Again what is your source? I’m not sure you can dismiss the breaking of just in time supply chains as a “short term administration issue” and what does it being a problem for all manufacturers have to do with it? It’s still a problem and it seems you are accepting there that Brexit is one of JLRs issues?

Sales were down 50% in China last year and as I said their largest issues, not diesel. There was a large accounting write down but there was still several hundred million in genuine losers and another 395 million last year which was nothing to do with the previous years write down.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,826
djr8369 said:
Again what is your source? I’m not sure you can dismiss the breaking of just in time supply chains as a “short term administration issue” and what does it being a problem for all manufacturers have to do with it? It’s still a problem and it seems you are accepting there that Brexit is one of JLRs issues?

Sales were down 50% in China last year and as I said their largest issues, not diesel. There was a large accounting write down but there was still several hundred million in genuine losers and another 395 million last year which was nothing to do with the previous years write down.


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Click to expand...

Typo, last sentence is supposed to say last quarter not last year!


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D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,827
Grendel said:
The 2016 currency impact was the biggest percentage of its record profit year. The Fx in key markets was significantly in the companies favour and masked a fair few issues

The euro impact is non existent - some concerns would exist in terms of short term administration concerns if we crashed out but this would be a problem for all car
Manufacturers coming in or out.

The profit margins in the Far East are vast and the stated losses last year are not real
Click to expand...

Quite ironic that currency fluctuations were one of the “project fear” predictions. I suppose Raab will be telling us soon that currency fluctuations are what we voted for.


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Reactions: martcov

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,828
djr8369 said:
Again what is your source? I’m not sure you can dismiss the breaking of just in time supply chains as a “short term administration issue” and what does it being a problem for all manufacturers have to do with it? It’s still a problem and it seems you are accepting there that Brexit is one of JLRs issues?

Sales were down 50% in China last year and as I said their largest issues, not diesel. There was a large accounting write down but there was still several hundred million in genuine losers and another 395 million last year which was nothing to do with the previous years write down.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I worked there.

The diesel impact of course was huge as well as the business had heavily invested in diesel technology and has very few competitive petrol options

Also the product offering was questionable - not offering differentiation and largely substituting sakes and the technology investment huge which meant many models have questionable per unit returns

The only added headache brexit would have caused is cash flow - if it was unplanned- but the problems that existed and would be its biggest challenges are non Brexit related. In fact if your going to be very picky if we had not been ever in the Eu we’d be probably as country employing more and dealing better with cost base issues as we would not have manufactured in Europe.

Of course it will be cited as a reason as the business would want to secure government financing - which it has every right to do - but look across Europe and the Jon losses through Central Europe to show its a consistent message everywhere
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,829
djr8369 said:
Typo, last sentence is supposed to say last quarter not last year!


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Click to expand...

Eh now I am confused the company made £120 million profit in q4 after transformation costs
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,830
Grendel said:
I worked there.

The diesel impact of course was huge as well as the business had heavily invested in diesel technology and has very few competitive petrol options

Also the product offering was questionable - not offering differentiation and largely substituting sakes and the technology investment huge which meant many models have questionable per unit returns

The only added headache brexit would have caused is cash flow - if it was unplanned- but the problems that existed and would be its biggest challenges are non Brexit related. In fact if your going to be very picky if we had not been ever in the Eu we’d be probably as country employing more and dealing better with cost base issues as we would not have manufactured in Europe.

Of course it will be cited as a reason as the business would want to secure government financing - which it has every right to do - but look across Europe and the Jon losses through Central Europe to show its a consistent message everywhere
Click to expand...

If you were working there last year maybe you are aware that the companies stance is Brexit will cost 1.2BN in tariffs?

While your other points are all valid I’m not convinced Brexit will be such a non issue. Under what tariffs and trading arrangements? And how will JIT supply chains cope with the sudden change?




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Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,831
djr8369 said:
If you were working there last year maybe you are aware that the companies stance is Brexit will cost 1.2BN in tariffs?

While your other points are all valid I’m not convinced Brexit will be such a non issue. Under what tariffs and trading arrangements? And how will JIT supply chains cope with the sudden change?




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Click to expand...

I worked there until a couple of months ago - I’m fully aware of the real situation
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,832
Grendel said:
Eh now I am confused the company made £120 million profit in q4 after transformation costs
Click to expand...

Indeed I meant it as in last q reported (1st one of this year) rather than last one of last year.


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D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,833
Grendel said:
I worked there until a couple of months ago - I’m fully aware of the real situation
Click to expand...

What is the real situation then and how are you aware of it? Are you suggesting the company is wrong or lying?


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Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,834
djr8369 said:
Indeed I meant it as in last q reported (1st one of this year) rather than last one of last year.


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Click to expand...

Which was pretty much in line with expectations and nothing Brexit related
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,835
djr8369 said:
What is the real situation then and how are you aware of it? Are you suggesting the company is wrong or lying?


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Click to expand...

Neither but like all businesses headlines are always there to get a result
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,836
Grendel said:
if we had not been ever in the Eu we’d be probably as country employing more and dealing better with cost base issues as we would not have manufactured in Europe.
Click to expand...

Might be employing more but as it’s cheaper to manufacture in Europe how would that help cost base? And would the same level of growth have been achieved?




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Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,837
The £395 million wasn’t a lie just not the whole picture
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,838
Grendel said:
Neither but like all businesses headlines are always there to get a result
Click to expand...

What result would that be? That would also still be lying? While the company has been publicly anti Brexit this was more related to the internal email that stated tariffs would cost 1.2BN and make the business untenable. In public the comments have been less severe and more ambiguous about the outcome.


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Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,839
djr8369 said:
Might be employing more but as it’s cheaper to manufacture in Europe how would that help cost base? And would the same level of growth have been achieved?




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Click to expand...

Well the growth has little to do with the European plants - labour is of course cheap and cost cheap but what I’m saying is without that availability the company would have had to look at other ways to make the market equation work
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,840
djr8369 said:
What result would that be? That would also still be lying? While the company has been publicly anti Brexit this was more related to the internal email that stated tariffs would cost 1.2BN and make the business untenable. In public the comments have been less severe and more ambiguous about the outcome.


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Click to expand...

Of course it’s not lying - you can run scenarios and come up with different figures can’t you - worst / best case etc

And again if we are going to indulge in semantics the companies profit impact alone from the current hit in 2016 has made significant financial benefits and has helped the cash flow over the subsequent 3 years
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,841
Grendel said:
Well the growth has little to do with the European plants - labour is of course cheap and cost cheap but what I’m saying is without that availability the company would have had to look at other ways to make the market equation work
Click to expand...

I was more thinking growth over the last decade with access to SM. European plants are obviously very recent so limited effect.

Ok but you must acknowledge thats a very optimistic take.


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Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,842
djr8369 said:
I was more thinking growth over the last decade with access to SM. European plants are obviously very recent so limited effect.

Ok but you must acknowledge thats a very optimistic take.


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I don’t think in the case if the company we are talking about the single market has st all been positive

It’s allowed the company to look far more at supplier bases through Europe and has been at the detriment of uk potential suppliers
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,843
Grendel said:
Of course it’s not lying - you can run scenarios and come up with different figures can’t you - worst / best case etc

And again if we are going to indulge in semantics the companies profit impact alone from the current hit in 2016 has made significant financial benefits and has helped the cash flow over the subsequent 3 years
Click to expand...

Well if the company are telling staff the tariffs costs of no deal are 1.2BN and you’re saying the effects wouldn’t make any difference that’s quite a disparity. What result are you suggesting they wanted from any headlines?


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D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,844
Grendel said:
I don’t think in the case if the company we are talking about the single market has st all been positive

It’s allowed the company to look far more at supplier bases through Europe and has been at the detriment of uk potential suppliers
Click to expand...

Perhaps but that’s has also given it more options which can mean cost savings or improved quality. I’m not sure how you are coming to the conclusion that them being forced to use the U.K. more would have helped the cost base?

As I’m sure you’re aware JLR has still used U.K. suppliers when appropriate and invested in its U.K. supply chains.


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D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,845
EU thread hijacked by detailed civilised discussion shock.


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Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,846
djr8369 said:
Well if the company are telling staff the tariffs costs of no deal are 1.2BN and you’re saying the effects wouldn’t make any difference that’s quite a disparity. What result are you suggesting they wanted from any headlines?


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Click to expand...

The most negative possible for obvious reasons
 
D

djr8369

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,847
Grendel said:
The most negative possible for obvious reasons
Click to expand...

JLR wanted a negative result? What obvious reason?


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Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,848
djr8369 said:
Perhaps but that’s has also given it more options which can mean cost savings or improved quality. I’m not sure how you are coming to the conclusion that them being forced to use the U.K. more would have helped the cost base?

As I’m sure you’re aware JLR has still used U.K. suppliers when appropriate and invested in its U.K. supply chains.


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Click to expand...

I’m saying that you can’t just make a blind statement based off one point in time to see if things are good or bad.

When I worked just in jaguar and the euro was on its arse we were in massive financial trouble as in the uk for example German retailers were ordering RHD product and selling it back to the uk cheaper then the uk NSC could supply retailers

The rules at the time meant you could not stop it. Northern island would not have a single retailer of any description if every manufacturer did not prop up every sale they made and the EU did nothing to intervene
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,849
djr8369 said:
JLR wanted a negative result? What obvious reason?


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WCS results are of course useful for reasons I hope I don’t have to spell out
 
M

martcov

Well-Known Member
  • Aug 2, 2019
  • #38,850
Astute said:
We were dictated to because we allowed it to happen. This is why it was all very one sided.

Maybe it was all part of the plan to keep us in.

We will never know.
Click to expand...

The EU see it differently. They made an offer via Tusk. May rejected and laid down the UK red lines. 28 countries agreed to the deal.
 
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