The bookies make millions from us year on year on year ....
Why? Because they look at the constants, the stats and the most probable scenarios. That sort of throws your comment back in your face a bit. The bookies aren't very often wrong are they. Otherwise they would be out of business.
Of course the stats of how many points are required are relevant. It's not an exact science, but you can put your house on it that it's going to be around 40 pts + required again this season minimum.
In around two weeks time At will have been in the job for 1yr ,when he took over from AB we had 38-39 points if memory serves me correct so if we can muster 4-5 points by then we'll be about 5 short of that total with 8 games left ,if this scenario pans out i believe the total required will be around 47-48 meaning 4 wins and 1 draw from 8 would just about do it.With regard to results being freakish ,that is like AT saying we were continually unlucky to lose,the result is the result regardless ,we are on a hot run at home which is no more freakish than our usual blistering starts to many a season only to tail off by Nov/Dec,its just happening in reverse,All to play for at Southampton for me,to me that is the logic of whats happening .
Home form is good. Think it can continue to be good. But we don't just need it to be good so as to have an unbeaten home run, we need a succession of wins in this run for it to be a winning run for us to survive.
We draw against Brum and then the next home game we are going to probably see that gap widening in front of us.
You'd need to put down around £1.7m in order to get a seven-figure return from the bookies on Cov staying up; and if you have that kind of money floating around, why would you bother? The bookies get so rich precisely because they do know the statistics, and profit from people banking on that outside hope coming in.
The bookies make millions from us year on year on year ....
Why? Because they look at the constants, the stats and the most probable scenarios. That sort of throws your comment back in your face a bit. The bookies aren't very often wrong are they. Otherwise they would be out of business.
Of course the stats of how many points are required are relevant. It's not an exact science, but you can put your house on it that it's going to be around 40 pts + required again this season minimum.
Statistics and facts....bah humbug! I was travelling through Detroit the other day and heard the guy on radio talking about some 'facts' about schools today and in particular maths. He said, and I quote, " a full 59% of all students in the Detroit Area School Board did not understand percentages............while the other half did". (lol) History tells us where we've been.....the FUTURE tells us where we are going. Where there is still hope.....believe!
Yes some stats are not much use and can be manipulated, but you can't argue with the league tables for the last 30 years. They are there cast in stone. The points are there in concrete and we have a very good idea what is required.
Someone on here actually said we might only need one more win as long as everyone lost. :facepalm: History tells us that the lowest ever points total to stay up in the last 30 years was 40 points and that was just once. Usually it is between 46-52.
It won't be so many this year. That seems clear. But it will be 40 pts or more. That too looks quite clear. Forest only need 8 points in 12 games to reach 40 points. Oaky, I say 'only' and they still have to get them, but think about it, 8 points in 12 games would still be a very poor return for them. It would put them on 40 points though. Bristol would only need 6 points in 11 games. Just 2 wins in 11 games would agian be a very poor return, but that's all they need to attain 40 points.
Yes of course we could all say that Forest won't get those 8 points and Bristol won't get those 6 points, but as I say, if they did get those points they would still be in very poor form to do so. Bristol don't have to pull up many treess to get 6 points in 11 games do they!
Don't think we can just ignore these factors and expect teams to just keep losing. It's going to be around 40 pts +. That means we are going to need 4 wins minimum I think. Either that or 3 wins and a number of draws.
We can all say stats can be manipulated, but surely history gives us a pretty good indication of what is going to be needed to keep us up.