Stats to back up Otis (1 Viewer)

LeamingtonBootBoy · Mar 7, 2012

In reply to Otis' comments earlier about it being all over, and the subsequent furore....I've done some basic analysis;

33 points left to play for
Last 33 points we have collected 10 points
Last 72 points we have collected 19 points

At a very generous tally (which I did in conjunction with Ian from Shipston, honest!) we reckon 17 points from the last 11 games is the MAXIMUM we will get, realistically, this number will be nearer 10 or 11....so will 39 or 40 points keep us up???

As I have posted previously, in a table based on performances against the teams in the bottom half of the table we are a clear bottom of the table.

Therefore, although we need to compete to the end and not give up hope....the overwhelming stats do not augur well.

Otis may be pessimistic, but he has good reason to be based on hard stats and facts....

torchomatic · Mar 7, 2012

Certainly grim reading Booty and while it certainly doesn't look good your stats are history rather than a forecast. Doesn't mean our form won't improve. Doesn't mean we won't get out of the mess we're in.

Am I clutching at straws? Probably, but what else can I do but hope and believe?

Otis · Mar 7, 2012

LeamingtonBootBoy said:
In reply to Otis' comments earlier about it being all over, and the subsequent furore....I've done some basic analysis;

33 points left to play for
Last 33 points we have collected 10 points
Last 72 points we have collected 19 points

At a very generous tally (which I did in conjunction with Ian from Shipston, honest!) we reckon 17 points from the last 11 games is the MAXIMUM we will get, realistically, this number will be nearer 10 or 11....so will 39 or 40 points keep us up???

As I have posted previously, in a table based on performances against the teams in the bottom half of the table we are a clear bottom of the table.

Therefore, although we need to compete to the end and not give up hope....the overwhelming stats do not augur well.

Otis may be pessimistic, but he has good reason to be based on hard stats and facts....

As you are good at conjuring up stats for me, can you work out how much happier I would be if I hadn't have met my wife?

It was 2002. We met on a train travelling at 80 mph and I wore a smoking jacket and it was a Tuesday. It took 3 hours to get there but we didn't start the journey until 7 pm. Can you tell me where I would have been if I hadn't squirted tomato ketchup from my hot dog down the old woman's labrador at 7.24 p.m?

Cheers.

Colonel Mustard · Mar 7, 2012

LeamingtonBootBoy said:
Otis may be pessimistic, but he has good reason to be based on hard stats and facts....

Yep, I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a single statistic or factor that works in City's favour. It would take a major divergence from the status quo to allow us to stay up.

torchomatic · Mar 7, 2012

Luckily the future isn't set in stone and follow exactly what has happened in the past then, isn't it?

Colonel Mustard said:
Yep, I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a single statistic or factor that works in City's favour. It would take a major divergence from the status quo to allow us to stay up.

@richh87 · Mar 7, 2012

Doesn't look good does it. But the one fact it ignores is that we're Coventry City - the best team in the world at getting out of relegation scraps.

Bring It.

:slap:

ccfcway · Mar 7, 2012

@richh87 said:
Doesn't look good does it. But the one fact it ignores is that we're Coventry City - the best team in the world at getting out of relegation scraps.

Bring It.

Yer, Strachan said that !

LeamingtonBootBoy · Mar 7, 2012

torchomatic said:
Certainly grim reading Booty and while it certainly doesn't look good your stats are history rather than a forecast. Doesn't mean our form won't improve. Doesn't mean we won't get out of the mess we're in.

Am I clutching at straws? Probably, but what else can I do but hope and believe?

Agreed, Torchy...and if we don't believe, then you have to question the point of turning up.

However, i was just giving the stats to state the likely outcome!

LeamingtonBootBoy · Mar 7, 2012

Otis said:
As you are good at conjuring up stats for me, can you work out how much happier I would be if I hadn't have met my wife?

It was 2002. We met on a train travelling at 80 mph and I wore a smoking jacket and it was a Tuesday. It took 3 hours to get there but we didn't start the journey until 7 pm. Can you tell me where I would have been if I hadn't squirted tomato ketchup from my hot dog down the old woman's labrador at 7.24 p.m?

Cheers.

Er...no, sorry, mate!

@richh87 · Mar 7, 2012

Otis said:
As you are good at conjuring up stats for me, can you work out how much happier I would be if I hadn't have met my wife?

It was 2002. We met on a train travelling at 80 mph and I wore a smoking jacket and it was a Tuesday. It took 3 hours to get there but we didn't start the journey until 7 pm. Can you tell me where I would have been if I hadn't squirted tomato ketchup from my hot dog down the old woman's labrador at 7.24 p.m?

Cheers.

Much happier - and knee deep in clunge.

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Mar 7, 2012

If we are looking at form
Forest have 9 points from last 13
Coventry have 16 points from last 13
Bristol have 13 points from last 13
Donny have 13 points from last 13
Pompy have 9 points from last 13

I know we are generally terrible and can't win away from home but there are other sides who are just as bad as us and there fans will be worrying just as much as us, there are no definites in football, particularly when the gap is still small. If we were say 8/9 points away I could understand but we are only 1 win away from safety.

Colonel Mustard · Mar 7, 2012

torchomatic said:
Luckily the future isn't set in stone and follow exactly what has happened in the past then, isn't it?

What's your point?

If it's the value of hope, go for it. I have no problem with that. I hope too.

Otis · Mar 7, 2012

CCFC said:
If we are looking at form
Forest have 9 points from last 13
Coventry have 16 points from last 13
Bristol have 13 points from last 13
Donny have 13 points from last 13
Pompy have 9 points from last 13

I know we are generally terrible and can't win away from home but there are other sides who are just as bad as us and there fans will be worrying just as much as us, there are no definites in football, particularly when the gap is still small. If we were say 8/9 points away I could understand but we are only 1 win away from safety.

Oh dear. Doesn't that Donny stat suggest they may well finish above us as they have 2 games in hand?

Colonel Mustard · Mar 7, 2012

CCFC said:
If we are looking at form
Forest have 9 points from last 13
Coventry have 16 points from last 13
Bristol have 13 points from last 13
Donny have 13 points from last 13
Pompy have 9 points from last 13

I know we are generally terrible and can't win away from home but there are other sides who are just as bad as us and there fans will be worrying just as much as us, there are no definites in football, particularly when the gap is still small. If we were say 8/9 points away I could understand but we are only 1 win away from safety.

I think you have to add commentary to the stats. Yes, on paper CCFC's form has been a marked improvement. In reality, we're on a freak home run and still can't get points away from home (which is the constant at play). In other words, we'd have to keep winning at home in order to maintain that run OR start getting points away, and one would have to side with the constant there. It'd be a different interpretation if the points had been more evenly spread, or even reversed (away wins v home losses).

Otis · Mar 7, 2012

We also have more away games left now than home games. You have to factor that in too.

blueflint · Mar 7, 2012

as i have said before we are in deep dodo cant bury your head in sand miraclrs dont happen down down deeper etc:wave::wave::wave::wave:waving farewell to championship

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Mar 7, 2012

Otis said:
Oh dear. Doesn't that Donny stat suggest they may well finish above us as they have 2 games in hand?

Hadn't thought that far ahead but going through it

Donny going at a point a game and put them on 42 points for the season
We would have 13-14 points from last 11 and finish on 42-43 points and most probably a superior GD
Bristol would finish on 45 points going at a point a game
Forest would finish on 40 points
Pompy would finish on 38 points

It will probably not finish that way, just showing how stats can be twisted depending on what point you are trying to back up.

Otis · Mar 7, 2012

They can indeed.

Whatever happens we know that after only winning 7 games in 35, we have now got to go out and win 4 or 5 out of just 11.

If we had just got a few points on the road I would have said it was doable.

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Mar 7, 2012

Colonel Mustard said:
I think you have to add commentary to the stats. Yes, on paper CCFC's form has been a marked improvement. In reality, we're on a freak home run and still can't get points away from home (which is the constant at play). In other words, we'd have to keep winning at home in order to maintain that run OR start getting points away, and one would have to side with the constant there. It'd be a different interpretation if the points had been more evenly spread, or even reversed (away wins v home losses).

Yea you have a point, I was also trying to show though how there will be a few other sides who should be worried also as they are on poor runs also. I don't see why we can't keep up the home form tbh, after Birmingham we have Pompy, Peterborough, Millwall and Donny to come to the Ricoh. If we can get 10 points from those 5 games and then pray we can scrape an away win somewhere (preferably Bristol) then we may just survive if we are lucky.

LeamingtonBootBoy · Mar 7, 2012

29 points from 35 games played...in the relegation zone since October....only team in the league without an away win.

Let's try and twist these into a positive.....I admire the spirit, I really do...but from a stats point of view ....short/medium or long term...we are fooked.

LeamingtonBootBoy · Mar 7, 2012

You could also argue that the other teams have signed players or replaced players....are we stronger as a squad than we were in December??

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Mar 7, 2012

Otis said:
They can indeed.

Whatever happens we know that after only winning 7 games in 35, we have now got to go out and win 4 or 5 out of just 11.

If we had just got a few points on the road I would have said it was doable.

Yea, unless we are going to win 4 of the last 5 at home we will need an away win. I just think we may win away somewhere, maybe a penalty won by Nimely or a snap shot by Mcdonald, improbable I know but not impossible.

Otis · Mar 7, 2012

We need a deflected shot off the refs left buttock.

That happens and then I will readily sign up to the great Sky Blue survival mission.

LeamingtonBootBoy · Mar 7, 2012

You sound more hopeful than confident......

@richh87 · Mar 7, 2012

We only need to win more than the teams around us. Setting a points target is no use.

The only stat we need worry about is how far off safety we are.

Paxman II · Mar 7, 2012

ha ha. All this conjecture. I think it was Wigan last season who looked dead and buried yet form came good out of know where and they got safe.
I think you would do well to follow your instincts rather than bunches of stats. Stats can be convoluted in so many ways.

scroobiustom · Mar 7, 2012

This is a pretty pointless post, in fact statistical analysis is always worthless, hence why Pat Nevin is on channel 5!
Added to this did you know that 4/5 stats are actually made up?

oakey · Mar 7, 2012

If football followed statistical analysis there would be no point playing AND the bookies would be out of business.
The only stats that matter are the results of the next 11 games compared to that of the other 5 or 6 teams down the bottom.
Most of the fans on here must be youngsters who didn't live through the countless relegation escapes in the 80s and 90s.
Fans need to make some noise at home games...quiet as a grave, last night. The players need our support.
How many of us put as much effort into shouting and singing as we have into doing the maths?!

EleanorRigby · Mar 7, 2012

How ironic if the first time in months we climb out of the bottom three is at Southampton last match of the season. Don't rule it out

Colonel Mustard · Mar 7, 2012

The ironic thing here is that those dismissing statistics as mouldable propaganda are doing so in order to make an optimistic case for CCFC...

oakey · Mar 7, 2012

Colonel, I agree stats make it difficult but the same could be said of most of the bottom 6. They are all in a poor run of form. Basically 3 poor teams will survive. We have every chance of being one of them.

torchomatic · Mar 7, 2012

Well fancy that. Fans wanting to be optimistic about their team. Whatever next?

Colonel Mustard said:
The ironic thing here is that those dismissing statistics as mouldable propaganda are doing so in order to make an optimistic case for CCFC...

Otis · Mar 7, 2012

Why is statistical 'always worthless?'

Gone back over 30 years now and only once has a team stayed up on 40 points. a couple of times 43 has been required, but it is usally 46-50 pts required.

Don't see how that is worthless. That is very relevant as to how many points are likely to be required. If it is to 40, the lowest total in modern history then we need 11 pts. Lets' say it is that. Then we would need 4 wins out of 11 matches or 3 wins and 3 draws to get to 40 points.

Even the lowest total recorded acccording to those figures requires us to win 3 in 11 after only getting 7 in 35 so far this season.

Stats can be manipulated yes, but historically it has shown that we will need 40 pts or more to survive. I just don't think we can simply ignore that stat. It could be less than 40 of course. But that is highly improbable.

Colonel Mustard · Mar 7, 2012

torchomatic said:
Well fancy that. Fans wanting to be optimistic about their team. Whatever next?

I hope this isn't your idea of being a wind-up merchant. It's a little feeble.

Otis · Mar 7, 2012

He keeps doing this does Torchy. :facepalm:

All fans want to be optimistic surely don't they?

Stats to back up Otis (1 Viewer)

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