prufrock
Well-Known Member
With the FA Cup next week and no league match for 12 days, its a good time to take stock and review.
From a HMS piss the league start we have been regressing slightly since mid October but even then only into a top-6 form team. But I think this means that our good start has already laid the foundations for a sustained push towards automatic promotion.
Part of why we started the season so well was the continuity given by keeping the same players and a relatively small squad size. Whilst most teams were bedding in quite a few new signings we were improving on the drills and routines that were already consigned to our players muscle memory from the season prior. The small squad size meant that majority of the squad were playing regularly and so felt part of things- set piece drills could be tailor made for the same group of players each week. These factors, and improved belief and coaching from the manager and his team, helped allow a "top 6 deck" to over achieve into an automatic promotion chasing team.
Arguably it was the 2nd international break that was the turning point to when we no longer looked a cut above the rest of the league (the game before the break was the 5-0 win at Sheff Weds). Whilst we initially continued winning the performances were no longer as decisive. However we still have a really good team and so whilst the games have been closer we still have had the opportunity to pick up a decent amount of points and be competitive in most matches. Perhaps we can point to a couple of games where maybe we escaped with all 3 when on another day we could have expected only 1 (Blackburn, Watford, Middlesbrough). And a few results where we didn't get all 3 but maybe perhaps could have (Preston away- conceded a crazy goal on the break against 10 , Charlton away- only started trying to attack again after it became 1-1 but then created good chances, Birmingham Away- had better of the game but very slack defensively in pretty much all of the key B'Ham attacking moments, Southampton away- undone by a red card after an assured 1st half performance).
Despite recent results, looking at the last 16 matches (the game after the 2nd international break) we are 5th in the form table. Sure no-longer top but still at the pace expected for a top 6 team with lots of points already on the board. Only Ipswich, Watford, Wrexham and Preston have had a better time of it- and encouragingly even then only by a couple of points.
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The one worry for me during this time was the home performance against Ipswich. As I think we were comprehensively outplayed by a very good team and didn't look like we could get back into the match. It reminded me of the Leeds and Burnley performances from last season. Having said that we still had to play Ipswich at one of the worst times of the season for us. A parachute team who can and do rotate, against a threadbare squad ravaged by illness and injury to important players in the middle of what is normally the most congested set of fixtures all season. That was seemingly a one off so far, compare playing Ipswich to losing y/day against Birmingham: I thought we were well in the game and even at times the more likely. For instance look at the players reaction after the Simms goal. No settling for a point with long drawn out celebrations, they were straight back to the halfway line and were wanting to go again. Of course we got the suckerpunch a couple of minutes later but the mindset was to get all 3 points and not settle for a draw and I think, given the momentum of the match, that was right attitude to have at the time.
Going back to the form table since 2nd int break . It shows, as you would expect, that there are lots of teams taking points off each other. For instance on form there is only 7 points between Ipswich in 1st place and the middle of the table in 12th place (Millwall). This helps show that whilst some teams may hit good form in the short term it has so far not been sustained over a longer period. Whilst we have seen firsthand in other seasons that it is possible to put big runs together in the 2nd half of the season it is normally only 1 or 2 teams that can sustain it, and even then it could be a team nearer the bottom of the table who work their way up as we did last season and the playoff season. We have the benefit of having already put a big run on the board and in addition there is also no reason to suggest our squad cannot step up again ourselves and actually put another decent run together as we are still top of the league with top 6 form despite:
1.) Wright not scoring since Sheff Weds away on the 4th October- he will get scoring again- and I believe in a big way too. Whilst his consistency means he hasn't already moved to West Ham for £200m he is still good enough to bag lots of times between now and the end of the season, there will be matches where he gets us key goals.
2.) Rudoni struggling to come back from injury. Again he is far too good not to positively affect matches long term. When he gets going again we will benefit big time. Whether it is with assists or goals (perhaps both) he will give us some man of the match performances.
3.) Top scorer BTA out for (at least) 9 games during the busiest time of the season. He might need time to get up to speed too, especially with the muscle injury, but there is enough time for him to get top gear. I also think he is hungry for goals this season and will want to really make a mark again- despite missing 9 matches he is only 1 behind the top goalscorer Armstrong.
4.) Illness affecting the camp meaning players playing whilst sick, players missing games at the last minute. All during an unforgiving run of fixtures. For instance Torp was badly affected and he is one of the players of the season, footmob has him only behind the impressive Louza from Watford in overall ratings for the season so far.
5.) Quite a few key decisions not going our way of late: Opposition players not being sent off when they should have been, clear penalties not being awarded. Hopefully they will balance out over the season and we will start getting those decisions.
We have now come through the toughest time of the season for a squad of our size. Not unscathed, not without being bruised, not without lessons being learnt, but through it, top of the league and a chance to regroup and plan for the remainder of the season. Whilst, as I said earlier, our great start was in part to continuity and a small squad size, it was also evident we were punished for not having a couple more bodies during December and into early January. Recency bias but looking at the bench yesterday and comparing it with Birminghams didn't inspire confidence that, Wright aside, at 3-2 down we could improve our tiring starters with proven impact from the bench.
We also now have the benefit of a having a transfer window at a great time for us. Reinforcements will arrive and given our league position they should have quality that can more than adequately cover or improve what we have. Hopefully the bench will not look so threadbare again this season which will hopefully turn a couple of what would have been defeats into draws and draws into wins. We also have a decent 12 day rest before out next big game. Before that 5000 of us will see our next generation play in the FA Cup with absolutely no pressure on getting a result.
Across the season so far this group of players, the manager, the coaches, the owner, have given us something amazing again, achieving well over where our wage budget would suggest we are at, despite being up against teams with parachute payments and Hollywood millions. They are up against teams that fund huge losses season after season. Despite that our club has given us top of the league. Top of the league! They have given us our home- out of nowhere. They have given us record season ticket sales. They have given us a city centre full of people Cov shirts. They have given us a chance of a great future.
This lot have got the whole city invested.... AGAIN, as by and large it was also this group that gave us an FA Cup semi final, this group that gave us a play off semi final and this group that has given us the best form in 2025 of all teams.
TL;DR This lot have done brilliant and have set us up nicely for a really exciting 2026
From a HMS piss the league start we have been regressing slightly since mid October but even then only into a top-6 form team. But I think this means that our good start has already laid the foundations for a sustained push towards automatic promotion.
Part of why we started the season so well was the continuity given by keeping the same players and a relatively small squad size. Whilst most teams were bedding in quite a few new signings we were improving on the drills and routines that were already consigned to our players muscle memory from the season prior. The small squad size meant that majority of the squad were playing regularly and so felt part of things- set piece drills could be tailor made for the same group of players each week. These factors, and improved belief and coaching from the manager and his team, helped allow a "top 6 deck" to over achieve into an automatic promotion chasing team.
Arguably it was the 2nd international break that was the turning point to when we no longer looked a cut above the rest of the league (the game before the break was the 5-0 win at Sheff Weds). Whilst we initially continued winning the performances were no longer as decisive. However we still have a really good team and so whilst the games have been closer we still have had the opportunity to pick up a decent amount of points and be competitive in most matches. Perhaps we can point to a couple of games where maybe we escaped with all 3 when on another day we could have expected only 1 (Blackburn, Watford, Middlesbrough). And a few results where we didn't get all 3 but maybe perhaps could have (Preston away- conceded a crazy goal on the break against 10 , Charlton away- only started trying to attack again after it became 1-1 but then created good chances, Birmingham Away- had better of the game but very slack defensively in pretty much all of the key B'Ham attacking moments, Southampton away- undone by a red card after an assured 1st half performance).
Despite recent results, looking at the last 16 matches (the game after the 2nd international break) we are 5th in the form table. Sure no-longer top but still at the pace expected for a top 6 team with lots of points already on the board. Only Ipswich, Watford, Wrexham and Preston have had a better time of it- and encouragingly even then only by a couple of points.
Championship - Form table
This statistics show the form table of the Championship between match day 13 and match day 26 in the season 25/26.
The one worry for me during this time was the home performance against Ipswich. As I think we were comprehensively outplayed by a very good team and didn't look like we could get back into the match. It reminded me of the Leeds and Burnley performances from last season. Having said that we still had to play Ipswich at one of the worst times of the season for us. A parachute team who can and do rotate, against a threadbare squad ravaged by illness and injury to important players in the middle of what is normally the most congested set of fixtures all season. That was seemingly a one off so far, compare playing Ipswich to losing y/day against Birmingham: I thought we were well in the game and even at times the more likely. For instance look at the players reaction after the Simms goal. No settling for a point with long drawn out celebrations, they were straight back to the halfway line and were wanting to go again. Of course we got the suckerpunch a couple of minutes later but the mindset was to get all 3 points and not settle for a draw and I think, given the momentum of the match, that was right attitude to have at the time.
Going back to the form table since 2nd int break . It shows, as you would expect, that there are lots of teams taking points off each other. For instance on form there is only 7 points between Ipswich in 1st place and the middle of the table in 12th place (Millwall). This helps show that whilst some teams may hit good form in the short term it has so far not been sustained over a longer period. Whilst we have seen firsthand in other seasons that it is possible to put big runs together in the 2nd half of the season it is normally only 1 or 2 teams that can sustain it, and even then it could be a team nearer the bottom of the table who work their way up as we did last season and the playoff season. We have the benefit of having already put a big run on the board and in addition there is also no reason to suggest our squad cannot step up again ourselves and actually put another decent run together as we are still top of the league with top 6 form despite:
1.) Wright not scoring since Sheff Weds away on the 4th October- he will get scoring again- and I believe in a big way too. Whilst his consistency means he hasn't already moved to West Ham for £200m he is still good enough to bag lots of times between now and the end of the season, there will be matches where he gets us key goals.
2.) Rudoni struggling to come back from injury. Again he is far too good not to positively affect matches long term. When he gets going again we will benefit big time. Whether it is with assists or goals (perhaps both) he will give us some man of the match performances.
3.) Top scorer BTA out for (at least) 9 games during the busiest time of the season. He might need time to get up to speed too, especially with the muscle injury, but there is enough time for him to get top gear. I also think he is hungry for goals this season and will want to really make a mark again- despite missing 9 matches he is only 1 behind the top goalscorer Armstrong.
4.) Illness affecting the camp meaning players playing whilst sick, players missing games at the last minute. All during an unforgiving run of fixtures. For instance Torp was badly affected and he is one of the players of the season, footmob has him only behind the impressive Louza from Watford in overall ratings for the season so far.
5.) Quite a few key decisions not going our way of late: Opposition players not being sent off when they should have been, clear penalties not being awarded. Hopefully they will balance out over the season and we will start getting those decisions.
We have now come through the toughest time of the season for a squad of our size. Not unscathed, not without being bruised, not without lessons being learnt, but through it, top of the league and a chance to regroup and plan for the remainder of the season. Whilst, as I said earlier, our great start was in part to continuity and a small squad size, it was also evident we were punished for not having a couple more bodies during December and into early January. Recency bias but looking at the bench yesterday and comparing it with Birminghams didn't inspire confidence that, Wright aside, at 3-2 down we could improve our tiring starters with proven impact from the bench.
We also now have the benefit of a having a transfer window at a great time for us. Reinforcements will arrive and given our league position they should have quality that can more than adequately cover or improve what we have. Hopefully the bench will not look so threadbare again this season which will hopefully turn a couple of what would have been defeats into draws and draws into wins. We also have a decent 12 day rest before out next big game. Before that 5000 of us will see our next generation play in the FA Cup with absolutely no pressure on getting a result.
Across the season so far this group of players, the manager, the coaches, the owner, have given us something amazing again, achieving well over where our wage budget would suggest we are at, despite being up against teams with parachute payments and Hollywood millions. They are up against teams that fund huge losses season after season. Despite that our club has given us top of the league. Top of the league! They have given us our home- out of nowhere. They have given us record season ticket sales. They have given us a city centre full of people Cov shirts. They have given us a chance of a great future.
This lot have got the whole city invested.... AGAIN, as by and large it was also this group that gave us an FA Cup semi final, this group that gave us a play off semi final and this group that has given us the best form in 2025 of all teams.
TL;DR This lot have done brilliant and have set us up nicely for a really exciting 2026
