Relegation thread (1 Viewer)

oucho · Mar 15, 2017

So I ran some more analysis on this - it's possible that we'll be down by Wembley, depending of course on our results and those of others. But based on what I consider to be reasonable assumptions of forthcoming results, we'll still be up (just) at Wembley. See below:

They key field is row 14 - total points available (row 9) minus then-current points deficit (row 11). As soon as that "survival margin" number crosses into a negative, we are mathematically relegated.

So on this prediction, we'd at least take it past Wembley and into April (just).

OffenhamSkyBlue · Mar 15, 2017

Helpful set of stats, but the assumption that the team governing the safety mark (i.e. in 20th place) shows as little desire to avoid relegation as we do is unlikely. I think it'll be April 1st, but could be sooner.

Captain Dart · Mar 15, 2017

its a buzzard · Mar 15, 2017

Captain Dart said:
View attachment 6793

Excellent graphic, Cpt Dart. Clearly demonstrates that we've effectively flatlined and we're doomed ( not that the sane amongst us didn't know that anyway)

Captain Dart · Mar 15, 2017

Enhanced,.. I've plotted the potential points CCFC can get, when the purple line crosses the plots of 4 of the other teams we're officially fucked.

covcity4life · Mar 15, 2017

Captain Dart said:
Enhanced,.. I've plotted the potential points CCFC can get, when the purple line crosses 2 of the other teams we're officially fucked.
View attachment 6794

so what your saying is we need viagra?

davebart · Mar 15, 2017

We have to win or draw every one of our remaining games. If we lose or draw two games we will be down.

covcity4life · Mar 15, 2017

davebart said:
We have to win or draw every one of our remaining games. If we lose or draw two games we will be down.

oucho · Mar 15, 2017

Captain Dart said:
View attachment 6793

This does show the super-steep uptick we'd need in order to outpace 4 teams above us to the finishing post. Scary but effective graphic!

We could theoretically stay up with any number of points, just need to be have 4 teams below us at the end of the season - the 50 point mark does seem a fair one though and we'd need to win 8 out of 9 to get there, as DaveBart points out anything less that that now get us to sub-50 and would therefore be unlikely to be enough.

Paxman II · Mar 15, 2017

Unfortunately given any number of stats you like, the fact is we are going down and we need to move on already.

I can not accept the horrific demise I have witnessed since the promises made and request to hand over our shares and thus securing SISU's tenure.
It has been catastrophic. It's difficult to see an end to the nightmare, but I take solace in the fact that you can fall only so far and sooner or later you hit the ground and it all ends.
I hope that end will see the current ownership depart while we still have a football club, and we secure new ownership that sets about delivering some success.

oucho · Mar 15, 2017

It would take a freakish combination of results for us to be relegated by Wembley. But my view is that it will be immediately afterwards that the coup de grace arrives; the Sheff U game will be a defeat probably and that'll see it confirmed.

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Mar 15, 2017

Well guys when pax has admitted defeat you know we're done for.

Otis · Mar 17, 2017

Port Vale won tonight. Not that it real matters in the grand scheme of things, but they are now a massive 15 points clear of us and have a game in hand too.

Think that's the worst bit about it all, not that we are bottom, but that we are 7 points adrift from 2nd from bottom, 10 points adrift from 3rd from bottom, 15 points adrift from 4th from bottom and 17 points adrift from 5th from bottom.

Just how depressing is that, that we are so many points adrift of the other crappiest of crap teams down there.

Gazolba · Mar 17, 2017

All this analysis and graphs are pointless. We are relegated. Just accept it and move on to other things.
And what does it matter when we are mathematically relegated, it won't make any difference to how we play at Wembley.
Wembley is one of those one-off games where you can throw the form book out the window.
Personally, I think we will win.

Otis · Mar 17, 2017

Gazolba said:
All this analysis and graphs are pointless. We are relegated. Just accept it and move on to other things.
And what does it matter when we are mathematically relegated, it won't make any difference to how we play at Wembley.
Wembley is one of those one-off games where you can throw the form book out the window.
Personally, I think we will win.

Not talking about when we are relegated, Gazbola. Not even doing an analysis as such. I know we are down.

I am merely stating at how depressing it is to be so many points behind every other team.

Gazolba · Mar 17, 2017

Otis said:
Not talking about when we are relegated, Gazbola. Not even doing an analysis as such. I know we are down.

I am merely stating at how depressing it is to be so many points behind every other team.

Ok, Osit point taken.

oucho · Apr 6, 2017

For the first time this season, we are going into our next game knowing that by the final whistle we could be relegated.

If we lose against Peterborough on Sat, we're down. We can also be relegated if we win or draw and other results go against us.

Welcome back down to Earth!

Captain Dart · Apr 6, 2017

oucho said:
For the first time this season, we are going into our next game knowing that by the final whistle we could be relegated.

If we lose against Peterborough on Sat, we're down. We can also be relegated if we win or draw and other results go against us.

Welcome back down to Earth!

To be honest I'll be glad to get it over with now if for no other reason than to stop hyper optimists posting threads about a great escape.

Evo1883 · Apr 6, 2017

End of the day , I think the club were shambolically slow in replacing Mowbray and then replaced him with the wrong man in slade , the period between Mowbray leaving and robins arriving has cost us our league 1 status .
I can't look at this any other way as robins is showing that this team is probably lower mid table under the correct guidance

Moff · Apr 6, 2017

Were fucked and we won a cup. Season in a nutshell.

Brighton Sky Blue · Apr 7, 2017

Evo1883 said:
End of the day , I think the club were shambolically slow in replacing Mowbray and then replaced him with the wrong man in slade , the period between Mowbray leaving and robins arriving has cost us our league 1 status .
I can't look at this any other way as robins is showing that this team is probably lower mid table under the correct guidance

Sounds about fair, it certainly shouldn't be bottom.

stevefloyd · Apr 8, 2017

Shockingly bad mismanagement from all concerned, let the club down badly and more importantly let the fans down the sooner these parasites are gone the better.. it would be an even better feeling than our Wembley experience to see the back of the fuckers

Captain Dart · Apr 8, 2017

23 mins in... down..

shmmeee · Apr 8, 2017

45 mins in.

Down

lifeskyblue · Apr 8, 2017

The best we can realistically do is finish 23rd.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Captain Dart · Apr 8, 2017

51 mins, out of jail...

Wyken Sky Blue · Apr 8, 2017

Live to fight another day!

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covcity4life · Apr 8, 2017

If onky pub manager sladr wasnt left in charge for so long

fernandopartridge · Apr 8, 2017

Captain Dart said:
23 mins in... down..
View attachment 7112

No doubt you'll go quiet now we fight for another day

Captain Dart · Apr 8, 2017

Of the bottom 8 only Bury did not pick up a point.

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