Possession Vs Points (1 Viewer)

Johhny Blue · Feb 23, 2021

I've been frustrated with our possession pass around the back style for a while. It was great to see a different approach against Brentford and a win with 39% possession.
I decided to check on our possession stats for other wins.
Of the 8 wins this season we were under 50% for 5 with 2 at 51% and Wycombe the anomaly at 57%

Of the 14 losses we were over 50% for 9 (over 60% for 3 with Cardiff (A) the highest at 66%) of the 5 we were under 50% 3 were the early season blowouts against Bournemouth, Brentford & Blackburn.
The 10 draws were around 50% with the exceptions of Norwich (A) at 37% and Huddersfield (H) at 43%

It seems that the more possession we have (Usually in our own half) just leads to more mistakes. This is probably true for most teams the way the current game is played.
Food for thought

JulianDarbyFTW · Feb 23, 2021

There was a stat at the weekend (maybe on here, maybe on twatter) that all of the teams who won had less possession than the opposition. Hopefully that's not the case with Norwich tonight...

shmmeee · Feb 23, 2021

I think where you have your possession is more important than total possession. The difference last game was we had the ball in their final third a lot more and ours a lot less.

Grendel · Feb 23, 2021

The possession stat isn’t actually possession is it?

Ccfcisparks · Feb 23, 2021

Grendel said:
The possession stat isn’t actually possession is it?

What is it then

Grendel · Feb 23, 2021

Ccfcisparks said:
What is it then

Its passes isn’t it?

Ccfcisparks · Feb 23, 2021

Grendel said:
Its passes isn’t it?

If you pass the ball to one of your team mates surely that means you have possession of the ball...

Grendel · Feb 23, 2021

Ccfcisparks said:
If you pass the ball to one of your team mates surely that means you have possession of the ball...

But if you pass 10 times and lose in 20 seconds and two players have the ball for 21 seconds between them after 1 pass?

Johhny Blue · Feb 23, 2021

shmmeee said:
I think where you have your possession is more important than total possession. The difference last game was we had the ball in their final third a lot more and ours a lot less.

The point i’m trying to make is that THEY had lots of possession in their half (remember we only had 39%)

shmmeee · Feb 23, 2021

Johhny Blue said:
The point i’m trying to make is that THEY had lots of possession in their half (remember we only had 39%)

Well that’s also the point I was making.

Grendel · Feb 23, 2021

Without looking which club recorded a famous victory with 11% possession

Johhny Blue · Feb 23, 2021

Grendel said:
Without looking which club recorded a famous victory with 11% possession

Crewe?

JulianDarbyFTW · Feb 23, 2021

Grendel said:
Without looking which club recorded a famous victory with 11% possession

I wouldn't be surprised if it was us, given some of the dross we've had over the past few seasons.

You're right on possession stats, by the way. It's based on volume of passes. Or at least it was in the recent past - given the increase in analytics it may have changed, but that was certainly the case a season or two back.

cc84cov · Feb 23, 2021

Johhny Blue said:
I've been frustrated with our possession pass around the back style for a while. It was great to see a different approach against Brentford and a win with 39% possession.
I decided to check on our possession stats for other wins.
Of the 8 wins this season we were under 50% for 5 with 2 at 51% and Wycombe the anomaly at 57%

Of the 14 losses we were over 50% for 9 (over 60% for 3 with Cardiff (A) the highest at 66%) of the 5 we were under 50% 3 were the early season blowouts against Bournemouth, Brentford & Blackburn.
The 10 draws were around 50% with the exceptions of Norwich (A) at 37% and Huddersfield (H) at 43%

It seems that the more possession we have (Usually in our own half) just leads to more mistakes. This is probably true for most teams the way the current game is played.
Food for thought

Exactly play in Their half let their defenders make the mistakes the difference is having 2 up front it gives the options to go long teams can high press our 1 man they don’t worry about much coming back if their caught high I hope this high press will be used tomorrow

SBAndy · Feb 23, 2021

Grendel said:
Without looking which club recorded a famous victory with 11% possession

Celtic

Grendel · Feb 23, 2021

SBAndy said:
Celtic

vs Barcelona

SeaSeeEffCee · Feb 23, 2021

Possession is an utterly pointless stat that English football seems to be obsessed with. The amount of times you’re see respected pundits and journalists use possession as a measure of ‘who the better team’ was is mad.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Feb 23, 2021

SeaSeeEffCee said:
Possession is an utterly pointless stat that English football seems to be obsessed with. The amount of times you’re see respected pundits and journalists use possession as a measure of ‘who the better team’ was is mad.

Comes from the dominance of Spanish teams who played that way. tiki-taka. But as with all styles of play eventually someone will find a way to even it out. We're seeing that with the intensity and the high press.

Deleted member 9744 · Feb 23, 2021

JulianDarbyFTW said:
I wouldn't be surprised if it was us, given some of the dross we've had over the past few seasons.

You're right on possession stats, by the way. It's based on volume of passes. Or at least it was in the recent past - given the increase in analytics it may have changed, but that was certainly the case a season or two back.

I must admit I hadn't realised that. I naively assumed it was the amount of time a team had possession of the ball

Barnsley · Feb 23, 2021

I love the way we play, Let them do all the pointless passing, take it of them and have a shot.
Last month in the cup we played Norwich and absolutely bettered them, we controlled the game with 28% possession. Look how many passes they made to have 6 shots, ridiculous really.

cc84cov · Feb 23, 2021

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Comes from the dominance of Spanish teams who played that way. tiki-taka. But as with all styles of play eventually someone will find a way to even it out. We're seeing that with the intensity and the high press.

Even the top teams get caught out with a high press playing that possession way

mark82 · Feb 23, 2021

Grendel said:
Its passes isn’t it?

Nope, it's the ratio of time in possession of the ball. There are different stats for passing. It's a pointless stat regardless as Saturday shows. We were the better team, Brentford had the ball in defence a lot with us chasing them down not doing much with it. It's similar to the games where we have a lot of possession but we're often passing sideways and backwards. Possession isn't necessarily a good thing.

mark82 · Feb 23, 2021

cc84cov said:
Even the top teams get caught out with a high press playing that possession way

Would love to see us apply the high press more. It's so effective and we have players capable of doing it.

JulianDarbyFTW · Feb 23, 2021

Deleted member 9744 said:
I must admit I hadn't realised that. I naively assumed it was the amount of time a team had possession of the ball

So I've googled it, and it was based on passes (so if we made 600 passes and the opposition 400 passes, we'd have 60% possession) but now technology has taken hold it's based on time in control of the ball using a chess-like clock controlled by a statman or computer. So it turns out I was wrong.

Barnsley · Feb 23, 2021

mark82 said:
Would love to see us apply the high press more. It's so effective and we have players capable of doing it.

This may sound really strange, but the better you get at it, the harder it becomes to play that way.

Deleted member 9744 · Feb 23, 2021

JulianDarbyFTW said:
So I've googled it, and it was based on passes (so if we made 600 passes and the opposition 400 passes, we'd have 60% possession) but now technology has taken hold it's based on time in control of the ball using a chess-like clock controlled by a statman or computer. So it turns out I was wrong.

Oh right so my original understanding was right?

Frostie · Feb 23, 2021

mark82 said:
Would love to see us apply the high press more. It's so effective and we have players capable of doing it.

We were one of the best around at it in League One then completely changed tact upon promotion & by the stats now we're one of the least high pressing teams in the league. That stems from a concern that the better opposition can play through (or over) it & would leave us exposed defensively imo.

We showed on Saturday that we can still execute it very effectively though, might be a 'horses for courses' tactic as & when.

mark82 · Feb 23, 2021

Barnsley said:
This may sound really strange, but the better you get at it, the harder it becomes to play that way.

Yeah, I guess teams start to expect it and gameplan around it.

Johhny Blue · Feb 23, 2021

Frostie said:
We were one of the best around at it in League One then completely changed tact upon promotion & by the stats now we're one of the least high pressing teams in the league. That stems from a concern that the better opposition can play through (or over) it & would leave us exposed defensively imo.

We showed on Saturday that we can still execute it very effectively though, might be a 'horses for courses' tactic as & when.

I actually believe our defence can be really solid. However by default the more possession they have the more chance there is of a mistake. A huge percentage of our goals conceded have come from bad passes at the back or no time when we receive a tight ball from our own players.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Feb 24, 2021

mark82 said:
Nope, it's the ratio of time in possession of the ball. There are different stats for passing. It's a pointless stat regardless as Saturday shows. We were the better team, Brentford had the ball in defence a lot with us chasing them down not doing much with it. It's similar to the games where we have a lot of possession but we're often passing sideways and backwards. Possession isn't necessarily a good thing.

I used to assume it was someone with a stopwatch measuring it but it does appear it's based on passes made. It could be a massive co-inkydink but those stats Barnsley has put up, Norwich made 72% of the passes. That just happens to be the exact amount of time they spent in possession as well.

Johhny Blue · Feb 24, 2021

54% against Swansea today. Hope we hardly have a touch against Blackburn

Londonccfcfan · Feb 25, 2021

Johhny Blue said:
I've been frustrated with our possession pass around the back style for a while. It was great to see a different approach against Brentford and a win with 39% possession.
I decided to check on our possession stats for other wins.
Of the 8 wins this season we were under 50% for 5 with 2 at 51% and Wycombe the anomaly at 57%

Of the 14 losses we were over 50% for 9 (over 60% for 3 with Cardiff (A) the highest at 66%) of the 5 we were under 50% 3 were the early season blowouts against Bournemouth, Brentford & Blackburn.
The 10 draws were around 50% with the exceptions of Norwich (A) at 37% and Huddersfield (H) at 43%

It seems that the more possession we have (Usually in our own half) just leads to more mistakes. This is probably true for most teams the way the current game is played.
Food for thought

Just read this thread it's interesting.

Some points I'd like to add. Which heavily skew the possession stats.

We have chased alot of games this season by conceding early or generally going behind.

Teams like for example 'recently Preston/Cardiff and Norwich.

Teams sat back when they are coasting and sit back and soak up pressure. So we have generally bossed the possession stats when we are so far behind 8 ball. Ie last 20/30 mins.

Also..generally when we play two up top and we tend go longer and less dilly dallying at the back reduces our possession stats.

Grendel · Feb 25, 2021

Londonccfcfan said:
Just read this thread it's interesting.

Some points I'd like to add. Which heavily skew the possession stats.

We have chased alot of games this season by conceding early or generally going behind.

Teams like for example 'recently Preston/Cardiff and Norwich.

Teams sat back when they are coasting and sit back and soak up pressure. So we have generally bossed the possession stats when we are so far behind 8 ball. Ie last 20/30 mins.

Also..generally when we play two up top and we tend go longer and less dilly dallying at the back reduces our possession stats.

there is no evidence to support that whatsoever

Johhny Blue · Feb 25, 2021

Grendel said:
there is no evidence to support that whatsoever

It does make sense though

Possession Vs Points (1 Viewer)

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