points for survival (1 Viewer)

[oldskyblue58]

stark reality is that we will need a tremendous run in until the end of the season

I think a reasonable target to give us a chance of survival is 50 points minimum. That means another 34 points from 23 games (69 points max possible). With great respect to Brighton, today's game is one we need to target for a must win. It will be the results against the teams in the bottom half of the table that will seal our fate not the ones against teams in the top six or so. It isn't enough to lose or perhaps draw heroically with the top teams we have to beat most of the 10 or so teams immediately above us to survive.

23 games left. Say we lose 6 or 7 (past form says that it could well be more but take it as that for now) That means we need 34 points out of a possible 48 (7 lost)or 51 (6 lost). Whether it is 6 or 7 lost is not relevant because either outcome means we need 9 wins and to draw the rest to get at least 34 points minimum. Lose 8 games we need to win 10 out of 15 games

Bottom line is a maximum of 7 lost and a minimum of 9 won just to have a fighting chance imo.

We need some new faces in the squad but wont hold my breath on that - I think that will be to replace those that leave. we need to stay clear of injuries. we need to retain players and get others fit. and we need a huge dollop of luck for a change

It is still possible but if we do not beat the likes of Brighton, Forest, and Doncaster etc we can kiss the championship goodbye. Today will show if the players are up for it, so far this season every good game has been followed by a poorer performance especially from the more senior players.

We can still do it - but ...................

 

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[kg82]

Completely correct. Our players were so confidence starved it was like there was nothing to play for. Last week was massive for us because not only did they play well (2nd half) but the got the crowd right behind them and I can see that giving them a lot of confidence (mind you, this is city so...). Like you say, Brighton is massive. Concentrate on todays game and take each one as they come. It's doable but it's not likely.

On an extremly positive note, we can still get Play-offs!

 

[Sutty]

34 points:

WINS:

Brighton (h)
Ipswich (h)
Forest (a)
Barnsley (h)
Portsmouth (h)
Peterborough (h)
Bristol City (a)
Millwall (h)
Doncaster (h)

DRAWS:

Derby (a)
Middlesbrough (h)
Blackpool (a)
Birmingham (h)
Watford (a)
Palace (h)
Leeds (h)

That's 34 points. Pretty much the bare minimum that we'll require. Tough ask that's for sure but not totally impossible. Today's a big game though that's for sure.

 

[Jack Griffin]

Today will show if the players are up for it, so far this season every good game has been followed by a poorer performance especially from the more senior players.

Yes that is the most disappointing aspect, where is the pride & the fighting spirit in the squad, it is now or never.

 

[ohitsaidwalker king power]

I was going to post something similar.. the young 'uns been doing a little statistical analysis(good for the homework!!)

Since we were relegated teams have gone down from the championship with:-
2001/2= 49pts
2002/3= 46pts
2003/4= 51pts
2004/5= 50pts
2005/6= 42pts
2006/7= 42pts
2007/8= 52pts (Leicester shame!!)
2008/9= 46pts
2009/10= 47pts
2010/11= 42pts

43 points seems to have been enough on 3 occasions... but I suspect it might be closer to 48 this year. On that basis 32 more points.. not likely?
Irrespective i think rather sadly that our fate will be sealed when the admin men come knocking

 

[Macca]

34 points:

WINS:

Brighton (h)
Ipswich (h)
Forest (a)
Barnsley (h)
Portsmouth (h)
Peterborough (h)
Bristol City (a)
Millwall (h)
Doncaster (h)

DRAWS:

Derby (a)
Middlesbrough (h)
Blackpool (a)
Birmingham (h)
Watford (a)
Palace (h)
Leeds (h)

That's 34 points. Pretty much the bare minimum that we'll require. Tough ask that's for sure but not totally impossible. Today's a big game though that's for sure.

piece of piss on paper

trouble is thats 6 wins more than we already have achieved,

got to hang on to something i guess

 

[Godiva]

I am a sucker for stats so I always find posts like OSB's very interesting.

At the same time I also like to turn arguments, so let me try to inject a little optimism .

Let me start by looking at the competition.
Portsmouth is a ghost in the relegation battle. They might end up in admin and lose 10 or even 15 points. If that happens the morale will drop significantly and they may end up losing a lot after that.
Then look at Notts Forrest and Doncaster - they both seem destined for the drop.
Bristol City - despite their fluke win away against Southamton, they seem unable to win at home. They're not safe at all.
Millwall have won 5 at home, but they were all wins against the bottom teams. Their survival depends on them also winning the away games against the same teams. Not easy!
Ipswich are leaking goals for fun. Yes, they have not lost the last three, but how long can they keep that up?

Last season it only took 43 points to avoid relegation, and with the very close race between many teams it may well be enough again this season. In that case we only need 27 points from 23 games - 1.17pt/game. Pretty close to the 1.19pt/game we managed last season.

Never trust a statistic you didn't forge yourself

 

[SkyBlue_Bear83]

At the moment Bristol are going at a point a game, consider also they had a terrible start then a change of manager I think we should assume they will average slightly over a point a game in the second half of the season meaning we will probably need 48-50 points to stay up which is another 32-34 points which averages out at 1.4 points/game. We are going to pretty much have to beat every lower team we play from now to end of the season. Any slip up could be costly.

 

[EleanorRigby]

It is best to assume the worst but hope for the best, might sound a bit odd but where we currently are and having IMO the worst team and players in the division says it all. If you think saying we have the worst team and players is harsh in reallity how many of our team would be snapped up by the top championship clubs if able. Our survival depends on just how many new players we bring in AND that they hit the ground running AND our best players stay.

 

[ohitsaidwalker king power]

how many of our team would be snapped up by the top championship clubs if able...

4: Juke, Clingan, Cranie, Keogh

If they are at CCFC in Feb.. Bonus.. not a huge fan of Sammy "the crab" though myself...