points for promotion (1 Viewer)

skybluesam66 · Sep 27, 2017

Going back over the last 10 years

86 points guarantees promotion from this league (usually 80 is enough)

71 guarantees the play offs

so from 36 games
67 points for automatic (1.86 points per game) -that is carrying on our form to date over the whole season
52 points for play offs (1.44 points per game) - that is mid table form, and we should be good enough for that (although the Mowbray season reminds me to take nothing for granted)

So its going to be a long season, and we need to get as many wins on the board early on, to make it all look a bit simpler as 2 or 3 defeats, and those numbers then begin to look a lot harder

Otis · Sep 27, 2017

skybluesam66 said:
Going back over the last 10 years

86 points guarantees promotion from this league (usually 80 is enough)

71 guarantees the play offs

so from 36 games
67 points for automatic (1.86 points per game) -that is carrying on our form to date over the whole season
52 points for play offs (1.44 points per game) - that is mid table form, and we should be good enough for that (although the Mowbray season reminds me to take nothing for granted)

So its going to be a long season, and we need to get as many wins on the board early on, to make it all look a bit simpler as 2 or 3 defeats, and those numbers then begin to look a lot harder

22 wins from 36 games?

Piece of piss.

matesx · Sep 27, 2017

do that on the cheeks of our arse

Otis · Sep 27, 2017

matesx said:
do that on the cheeks of our arse

No, you do it on the cheeks of your arse and I'll just watch thanks.

skybluesam66 · Sep 27, 2017

we did have that graph of our progress in the Mowbray season (albeit it was soon shelved in the new year)
Would I be jinxing our current form suggesting that makes a comeback

vow · Sep 27, 2017

Isn't it 15 points every 10 games for promotion? or it could be play offs?

It's the one thing I remember Cookie saying when he was here.

skybluesam66 · Sep 27, 2017

vow said:
Isn't it 15 points every 10 games for promotion? or it could be play offs?

It's the one thing I remember Cookie saying when he was here.

thats play offs
that would be 69 points for the season (which is per above)

Liquid Gold · Sep 27, 2017

skybluesam66 said:
we did have that graph of our progress in the Mowbray season (albeit it was soon shelved in the new year)
Would I be jinxing our current form suggesting that makes a comeback

Yeah who used to make that. I'd like it back back to track how we're doing. I remember us being so far ahead of the line at one point that I thought "even Coventry City cant mess this up". What a twat.

Philosoraptor · Sep 27, 2017

I hold my hand up..

I had some serious health problems which floored me totally for twelve months. That was the main reason why I stopped it. One cardiac arrest later though I'm back fighting fit.

It was actually some quite interesting shit to do. I wasn't expecting such an even tally of results.

Ranjit Bhurpa · Sep 27, 2017

Reckon we need to target 2 pts a game throughout the season to be certain. Currently just a gnats widger off this. Aim high!

robbiekeane · Sep 27, 2017

Philosorapter said:
I hold my hand up..

I had some serious health problems which floored me totally for twelve months. That was the main reason why I stopped it. One cardiac arrest later though I'm back fighting fit.

It was actually some quite interesting shit to do. I wasn't expecting such an even tally of results.

Hope you're okay mate.

Philosoraptor · Sep 27, 2017

robbiekeane said:
Hope you're okay mate.

Yeah, I think my blood just likes to coagulate. One of them really. Shit happens.

Sky Blue Harry H · Sep 27, 2017

Philosorapter said:
I hold my hand up..

I had some serious health problems which floored me totally for twelve months. That was the main reason why I stopped it. One cardiac arrest later though I'm back fighting fit.

It was actually some quite interesting shit to do. I wasn't expecting such an even tally of results.

The moral of the story is - don't start trying to work out what our football team is going to do - it is bad for your health (seriously, glad you are fit and well - just don't tempt fate!)

play_in_skyblue_stripes · Sep 27, 2017

Philosorapter said:
I hold my hand up..

I had some serious health problems which floored me totally for twelve months. That was the main reason why I stopped it. One cardiac arrest later though I'm back fighting fit.

.

Glad your better.
It might jinx us but worth another go.

ccfcricoh · Sep 28, 2017

I've been playing with a graph at work (busy day!) Looked at last 10 seasons and points needed and then tracking ours against it...

I've rolled it out to end of season based on our current average points per game...

After 10 games even though we're not in top 3 we're on form for automatics...

p.s. not meaning to take any limelight if someone else normally does this, just thought i'd share what i had!

richnrg · Sep 28, 2017

how many points do we need to stay up?

ccfcricoh · Sep 28, 2017

Promotion - 83
Playoffs - 72
Relegation - 44

Briles · Sep 28, 2017

ccfcricoh said:
View attachment 8087

I've been playing with a graph at work (busy day!) Looked at last 10 seasons and points needed and then tracking ours against it...

I've rolled it out to end of season based on our current average points per game...

After 10 games even though we're not in top 3 we're on form for automatics...

p.s. not meaning to take any limelight if someone else normally does this, just thought i'd share what i had!

Loving your work sir!!

skybluesam66 · Sep 28, 2017

a couple of things to add
Accrington stanley in one of the seasons didn't get automatic with 85 points ( but 86+ has guaranteed automatic over that period)
No team with 71 points+ has failed to get to the play offs

we are currently in line to get 87.4 based on current rate

24 points from the next 13 games would see us still on target at half way

so that is 7 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats needs to be the minimum we achieve over that time

Monty · Sep 28, 2017

Surely it is the old adage of win your home games and draw your away games to win the league which put simply is 20 points every 10 games so we are just slightly behind what's needed

clint van damme · Sep 28, 2017

Monty said:
Surely it is the old adage of win your home games and draw your away games to win the league which put simply is 20 points every 10 games so we are just slightly behind what's needed

but also slightly ahead of where Doncaster were at this point last season and they managed to grab 3rd spot.

Otis · Sep 28, 2017

Yeah. Would much prefer a lot more points on the board now and a bit of a slip up later on.

Still having nightmares about our letting an 11 point gap slip bugger us up a couple of seasons back.

Want to be about 15 points clear so we can lose 4 in a row and still be clear at the top.

ccfcricoh · Sep 28, 2017

just because i'm bored, and in a moment of blind optimism I've added Champion points average and done it just up to current game week

not that any of this means anything obviously!!!

Liquid Gold · Sep 28, 2017

ccfcricoh said:
just because i'm bored, and in a moment of blind optimism I've added Champion points average and done it just up to current game week
View attachment 8091

not that any of this means anything obviously!!!

So at the moment we're finishing 2nd?

steveo1987 · Sep 28, 2017

1 Portsmouth (C, P) 46 26 9 11 79 40 +39 87

For a little bit of perspective Portsmouth went up as champions and lost 11 games

Otis · Sep 28, 2017

steveo1987 said:
1 Portsmouth (C, P) 46 26 9 11 79 40 +39 87

For a little bit of perspective Portsmouth went up as champions and lost 11 games

Yeah. It's what I said a few days back. Our target really needs to be to avoid anything more than 12 defeats.

We really shouldn't have 3 already, what with the errors etc.

vow · Sep 28, 2017

ccfcricoh said:
just because i'm bored, and in a moment of blind optimism I've added Champion points average and done it just up to current game week
View attachment 8091

not that any of this means anything obviously!!!

Try getting out more, you big saddo!

ccfcricoh · Sep 28, 2017

vow said:
Try getting out more, you big saddo!

Deserved haha...

But when I'm stuck at work and can't get out anyway, may as well think CCFC!

Sent from my E6853 using Tapatalk

Otis · Oct 18, 2017

Otis said:
Yeah. It's what I said a few days back. Our target really needs to be to avoid anything more than 12 defeats.

We really shouldn't have 3 already, what with the errors etc.

Well it's now 5 defeats. We have played 14 matches. It is now looking like such a more monumental task.

The benchmark appears to be to lose no more than around 12 games to get promoted. Last season the 3 top sides all lost 11 games come the end of the season

We have lost nearly half of that with still 32 games to go. It's rather worrying.

We need to buck this trend or we are going nowhere. We have now lost more games than any other team in the top 9.

We need an unbeaten run and a very good unbeaten run and we need it fast. At the moment we are losing at an average of more than 1 in every 3.

Otis · Oct 18, 2017

And we have some tough games coming up, not least, Luton a week on Saturday.

steve82 · Oct 18, 2017

Auto's are out the question to me, there are other sides in the division stronger.

We're more realistically a play off hopeful.

We're still only 6 points off the autos but play offs are more realistic

Otis · Oct 18, 2017

steve82 said:
Auto's are out the question to me, there are other sides in the division stronger.

We're more realistically a play off hopeful.

We're still only 6 points off the autos but play offs are more realistic

Trouble is playoffs can be a lottery. Dodgy pen, one off day, own goal, keeper blunder and it's all over.

I think it's this season or bust, so play-offs would be a bit of a lottery and a big worry.

clint van damme · Oct 18, 2017

Otis said:
Trouble is playoffs can be a lottery. Dodgy pen, one off day, own goal, keeper blunder and it's all over.

I think it's this season or bust, so play-offs would be a bit of a lottery and a big worry.

I'd snap you r hand off to get into the play offs at the moment. It's going to take a big turn around to trouble the automatics based on the last couple of weeks.

no_loyalty · Oct 18, 2017

steveo1987 said:
1 Portsmouth (C, P) 46 26 9 11 79 40 +39 87

For a little bit of perspective Portsmouth went up as champions and lost 11 games

Exeter finished 5th last season on 71 points and they suffered 17 defeats, Blackpool who occupied the last playoff spot finished on 70 points with 12 defeats.

I'm very optimistic that we will at least reach the playoffs, anything less would be a disaster

chiefdave · Oct 18, 2017

We will need in the region of 65-70 goals for promotion. Even if we had 2 forwards who could get 20 each where are the rest coming from?

If you take the career average of our 4 most prolific forwards (McNulty, Beavon, Nazon and Biamou) and the same for midfield (Jones, Doyle, Vincentti and Kelly) you get 69. But you can't play all 8 of them at the same time and several of them are well past their peak.

points for promotion (1 Viewer)

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Users who are viewing this thread

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency