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Passing Backwards and Going the Same Way (1 Viewer)

  • Thread starter The Philosopher
  • Start date Dec 12, 2024
Forums New posts

The Philosopher

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #1
It might just be me but England under Southgate became boring with constantly passing backwards. No one wanted to lose the ball or try anything daring.

Since the various spreadsheet analysis team came in to CCFC a year or so ago we seem to have become a lot more constrained and likely to pass backwards, even late on in the game when we need to have a hail-Mary go at it.

Do the players get taken through their performances after matches and scored on their “passes completed”, “retained possession”, “progression opportunity outcome move” or whatever and is that impacting the style of play?

Eg.

I think Sheaf is a great player. I bet his stats are amazing in terms of completed passes. I bet he gets good stats for “passes completed in attacking areas such as outside penalty box”, he would do, because he doesn’t shoot as often as he should and prefers to lay off.

I bet O’Hare had relatively poor stats, he was more likely to try and run and get a foul in a dangerous area. This might have led to a high stat for “possession lost”

Is over analysis of player statistics reducing creativity?

Were things like stats a factor in not breaking the bank to keep O’Hare? Did DK get presented with “stats” and feel that O’Hare flattered to deceive? Would we have been better to spend and extra £4m on O’Hare’s wages and have him as an asset on the pitch and on the books rather than EMC?

We seem to try to complete loads of little passes around our own defence more and more as time goes on.

The attacking, free flowing game that used to play has become more and more restricted.

Some of our recruiting seems totally bizarre, it wouldn’t surprise me if Kitching had great “stats” at Barnsley - I can’t see a £4m defender there, personally. Do the scouting team spend as much time actually watching players as they should?

I can’t see Ady and Big Dennis will have been big fans of the DK methods of scouting by spreadsheet or selection by stats. I had them down as old fashioned football guys. MR seemed to have less input as time went on into recruiting.

It was interesting to hear the DK interview about the “deck”. It’s almost as though he sees players as football top-trump cards; “possession 88, passing completed 75, zonal adherence 91, age-to-potential profit rating, £6m”. Etc.

I do agree that some decent analysis is worthwhile.

Have we become a club of over-analysis though or is that just tin-foil-hat deduction?

Any ITK have any feedback from players / staff, present / past who have suggested this?

Genuinely curious.
 
Reactions: LastChance, lifeskyblue, chickentikkamasala and 2 others
M

M3rcian

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #2
It's an interesting point and I do hope the only stat that matters is WDL, but I am reminded of this;
 

andrew.roberts

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #3
Good post. Whether it's all gone a bit "moneyball" is definitely a possibility but the players seem to be at a loss as to what to do when we eventually reach the final third after alot of fannying around at the back and in midfield.
O'Hare had that ability to unsettle defences by running into pockets of space and not being afraid to take a man on although he often lost the ball. We no longer have anyone capable of doing that so we tend to stutter when we reach that area of the pitch which in turn gives the opposition the time to reorganise.
Playing Torp as an AM could possibly help unlock defences because he often sees and executes that early ball very well but then we'd need the movement of the front runners to be on his wavelength.
Simms's control is poor at times but his movement I feel is underestimated and he has a very good first touch lay off which might be put to good use if Norman could learn how to play off him.
Just my tuppence worth.
 
Reactions: MalcSB

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #4
Badlan scouted players based on data. Fuck knows how Austin scouts players.
 
N

napolimp

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #5
The Philosopher said:
It might just be me but England under Southgate became boring with constantly passing backwards. No one wanted to lose the ball or try anything daring.

Since the various spreadsheet analysis team came in to CCFC a year or so ago we seem to have become a lot more constrained and likely to pass backwards, even late on in the game when we need to have a hail-Mary go at it.

Do the players get taken through their performances after matches and scored on their “passes completed”, “retained possession”, “progression opportunity outcome move” or whatever and is that impacting the style of play?

Eg.

I think Sheaf is a great player. I bet his stats are amazing in terms of completed passes. I bet he gets good stats for “passes completed in attacking areas such as outside penalty box”, he would do, because he doesn’t shoot as often as he should and prefers to lay off.

I bet O’Hare had relatively poor stats, he was more likely to try and run and get a foul in a dangerous area. This might have led to a high stat for “possession lost”

Is over analysis of player statistics reducing creativity?

Were things like stats a factor in not breaking the bank to keep O’Hare? Did DK get presented with “stats” and feel that O’Hare flattered to deceive? Would we have been better to spend and extra £4m on O’Hare’s wages and have him as an asset on the pitch and on the books rather than EMC?

We seem to try to complete loads of little passes around our own defence more and more as time goes on.

The attacking, free flowing game that used to play has become more and more restricted.

Some of our recruiting seems totally bizarre, it wouldn’t surprise me if Kitching had great “stats” at Barnsley - I can’t see a £4m defender there, personally. Do the scouting team spend as much time actually watching players as they should?

I can’t see Ady and Big Dennis will have been big fans of the DK methods of scouting by spreadsheet or selection by stats. I had them down as old fashioned football guys. MR seemed to have less input as time went on into recruiting.

It was interesting to hear the DK interview about the “deck”. It’s almost as though he sees players as football top-trump cards; “possession 88, passing completed 75, zonal adherence 91, age-to-potential profit rating, £6m”. Etc.

I do agree that some decent analysis is worthwhile.

Have we become a club of over-analysis though or is that just tin-foil-hat deduction?

Any ITK have any feedback from players / staff, present / past who have suggested this?

Genuinely curious.
Click to expand...

If this is true, then Bobby Thomas has definitely not got the message.
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #6
Should have kept Palmer
 
Reactions: Sick Boy and Para1140

peteCCFC

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #7
shmmeee said:
Badlan scouted players based on data. Fuck knows how Austin scouts players.
Click to expand...
Depends if they like yoga and/or playing the guitar.
 
Reactions: MalcSB

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #8
andrew.roberts said:
Good post. Whether it's all gone a bit "moneyball" is definitely a possibility but the players seem to be at a loss as to what to do when we eventually reach the final third after alot of fannying around at the back and in midfield.
O'Hare had that ability to unsettle defences by running into pockets of space and not being afraid to take a man on although he often lost the ball. We no longer have anyone capable of doing that so we tend to stutter when we reach that area of the pitch which in turn gives the opposition the time to reorganise.
Playing Torp as an AM could possibly help unlock defences because he often sees and executes that early ball very well but then we'd need the movement of the front runners to be on his wavelength.
Simms's control is poor at times but his movement I feel is underestimated and he has a very good first touch lay off which might be put to good use if Norman could learn how to play off him.
Just my tuppence worth.
Click to expand...

Some of Torps 1 touch passing was decent when ge came on and it definitely made us look like we were going about things with a bit more purpose.
 
Reactions: andrew.roberts
G

gspotgaz

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #9
we are so boring to watch and it’s not even effective. Our only tactics appears to be slowly work it out to wide players and put hopeful crosses in over and over. I’m not putting this on Lampard as he has inherited this mess
 
Reactions: chickentikkamasala, skyblueheaven, Ashdown and 2 others
S

Skyblue Bangkok

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #10
gspotgaz said:
we are so boring to watch and it’s not even effective. Our only tactics appears to be slowly work it out to wide players and put hopeful crosses in over and over. I’m not putting this on Lampard as he has inherited this mess
Click to expand...
We seem to have all of the mobility and pace of a team of OAPS,.
 
Reactions: chickentikkamasala

Para1140

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #11
MalcSB said:
Should have kept Palmer
Click to expand...
Yep hes really turned Hull around. Read their forum and see what their fans think of Palmer and tou will realise why hecould never get a permanent place in the first team here
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #12
Skyblue Bangkok said:
We seem to have all of the mobility and pace of a team of OAPS,.
Click to expand...
Premier level OAPs of course.
 

Major Tom

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #13
I blame Pep, he's killed off attractive football in this country with his passing across the back and tippy tappy football
 
Reactions: MalcSB

COVKIDSNEVERQUIT

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #14
MalcSB said:
Should have kept Palmer
Click to expand...

Let's see if anyone's going to close him down this Saturday, at every opportunity he will have a shot from long range.
 

MalcSB

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 12, 2024
  • #15
COVKIDSNEVERQUIT said:
Let's see if anyone's going to close him down this Saturday, at every opportunity he will have a shot from long range.
Click to expand...
You just know he is going to play well. Sods Law.
 
L

LilleSkyBlue

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 13, 2024
  • #16
I see so many goals conceded - and hairy situations generated - from trying to bring the ball out from the back under a strong opposition press. Not only Cov either. It seems to be just what you do nowadays.

Maybe managers and coaches reckon the benefits overall outweigh the odd glaring mistake?

Anyway, I don't hold with it.
 

rob9872

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 14, 2024
  • #17
napolimp said:
If this is true, then Bobby Thomas has definitely not got the message.
Click to expand...
I'm your biased opinion perhaps. Maybe look at his stats?
 

rob9872

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 14, 2024
  • #18
The Philosopher said:
It might just be me but England under Southgate became boring with constantly passing backwards. No one wanted to lose the ball or try anything daring.

Since the various spreadsheet analysis team came in to CCFC a year or so ago we seem to have become a lot more constrained and likely to pass backwards, even late on in the game when we need to have a hail-Mary go at it.

Do the players get taken through their performances after matches and scored on their “passes completed”, “retained possession”, “progression opportunity outcome move” or whatever and is that impacting the style of play?

Eg.

I think Sheaf is a great player. I bet his stats are amazing in terms of completed passes. I bet he gets good stats for “passes completed in attacking areas such as outside penalty box”, he would do, because he doesn’t shoot as often as he should and prefers to lay off.

I bet O’Hare had relatively poor stats, he was more likely to try and run and get a foul in a dangerous area. This might have led to a high stat for “possession lost”

Is over analysis of player statistics reducing creativity?

Were things like stats a factor in not breaking the bank to keep O’Hare? Did DK get presented with “stats” and feel that O’Hare flattered to deceive? Would we have been better to spend and extra £4m on O’Hare’s wages and have him as an asset on the pitch and on the books rather than EMC?

We seem to try to complete loads of little passes around our own defence more and more as time goes on.

The attacking, free flowing game that used to play has become more and more restricted.

Some of our recruiting seems totally bizarre, it wouldn’t surprise me if Kitching had great “stats” at Barnsley - I can’t see a £4m defender there, personally. Do the scouting team spend as much time actually watching players as they should?

I can’t see Ady and Big Dennis will have been big fans of the DK methods of scouting by spreadsheet or selection by stats. I had them down as old fashioned football guys. MR seemed to have less input as time went on into recruiting.

It was interesting to hear the DK interview about the “deck”. It’s almost as though he sees players as football top-trump cards; “possession 88, passing completed 75, zonal adherence 91, age-to-potential profit rating, £6m”. Etc.

I do agree that some decent analysis is worthwhile.

Have we become a club of over-analysis though or is that just tin-foil-hat deduction?

Any ITK have any feedback from players / staff, present / past who have suggested this?

Genuinely curious.
Click to expand...
Brentford and Brighton prove the stats based models do work. Our fragile confidence, negative xg and inability to do basic defending are more contributory factors. I have faith it will turn, but pray it's not too late.

We create enough chances so I don't see it a negative, I just wish we'd do it a bit crisper/quicker. The idea is built around drawing the opposition out of their basic shape and get them to press. A quick two pass around the press opens space, but we then seem intent on going back around allowing them to reset rather than getting a quick ball into the middle.
 
Reactions: nicksar

nicksar

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 14, 2024
  • #19
rob9872 said:
Brentford and Brighton prove the stats based models do work.
Click to expand...
Klopp discarded the stats based model at Liverpool,Arne Slot has reinstated it, seems to be working.
 
Reactions: rob9872

Covcraig@bury

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 14, 2024
  • #20
It’s now the Coventry way
 

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
  • Dec 14, 2024
  • #21
MalcSB said:
Should have kept Palmer
Click to expand...
We’d have been better off keeping the player playing for the team top of the league rather than the one that’s bottom of the table.
 

The Philosopher

Well-Known Member
  • Dec 14, 2024
  • #22
rob9872 said:
Brentford and Brighton prove the stats based models do work. Our fragile confidence, negative xg and inability to do basic defending are more contributory factors. I have faith it will turn, but pray it's not too late.

We create enough chances so I don't see it a negative, I just wish we'd do it a bit crisper/quicker. The idea is built around drawing the opposition out of their basic shape and get them to press. A quick two pass around the press opens space, but we then seem intent on going back around allowing them to reset rather than getting a quick ball into the middle.
Click to expand...
Yes, that’s the point I’m trying to make.

Kinda,

The “crisp two pass around the press” is great but then the third pass…..

Player has a choice:

Incisive ball with risk that has 70% chance of being “a successful pass” in their individual score card on their “deck”

or

Easy ball sidewards / backwards that has a 95% chance of being a “successful pass” and the player “stats” improve.

Do you see what I’m saying?
 
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