Our Goal Difference (1 Viewer)

Gazolba · Oct 14, 2019

Surely it's not just a coincidence that last season, of the top 9 teams, we had the lowest goal difference (0).
The auto promoted teams had a GD of +48 and +41.
That's a fair indication of how far off the pace we were!
They scored one more or conceded one less than us EVERY WEEK.
Exactly the same thing is happening this season.
We currently have the lowest GD of the top 10 teams (+1).
Even lower than Burton or Gillingham who are 14th and 15th.
This seems to indicate we either have a poor defence or a poor attack, or both.
You can debate which, but you can't dispute the figures.

SeaSeeEffCee · Oct 14, 2019

yeah but we pass it around nicely in midfield

Johhny Blue · Oct 14, 2019

We have more points than Burton and Gillingham. You can’t dispute that fact.

Magwitch · Oct 14, 2019

Does seem to be drifting the same way as last season, dropping points to teams at the bottom, Bolton, Wimbledon and Tranmere, even the 1-0 victory over Southend was a struggle, big difference in those games and taking some poor rerereeing decisions into account especially the Bolton game we must have created over a dozen gilt edged chances. Still confident we’ll be okay and this is just a wobble we have some good players due back from injury soon which should be like new signings.

Sky Blue Harry H · Oct 14, 2019

Magwitch said:
Does seem to be drifting the same way as last season, dropping points to teams at the bottom, Bolton, Wimbledon and Tranmere, even the 1-0 victory over Southend was a struggle, big difference in those games and taking some poor rerereeing decisions into account especially the Bolton game we must have created over a dozen gilt edged chances. Still confident we’ll be okay and this is just a wobble we have some good players due back from injury soon which should be like new signings.

We didn't drop any points to Wimbledon

Skybluefaz · Oct 14, 2019

SeaSeeEffCee said:
yeah but we pass it around nicely in midfield

Do we abandon those principles then? Nonsense

fatso · Oct 14, 2019

Magwitch said:
Does seem to be drifting the same way as last season, dropping points to teams at the bottom, Bolton, Wimbledon and Tranmere, even the 1-0 victory over Southend was a struggle, big difference in those games and taking some poor rerereeing decisions into account especially the Bolton game we must have created over a dozen gilt edged chances. Still confident we’ll be okay and this is just a wobble we have some good players due back from injury soon which should be like new signings.

But how long have we been saying That?
We are in danger of becoming a mid table team.

fatso · Oct 14, 2019

Skybluefaz said:
Do we abandon those principles then? Nonsense

If we keep dropping points then yes.
You don’t get points from passing it about nicely. There has to be an end product.

Skybluefaz · Oct 14, 2019

fatso said:
If we keep dropping points then yes.
You don’t get points from passing it about nicely. There has to be an end product.

The passing didn't miss the chances. Hope that helps

Magwitch · Oct 14, 2019

Sky Blue Harry H said:
We didn't drop any points to Wimbledon

True I was thinking Doncaster

cc84cov · Oct 14, 2019

Goal difference would of been a hell of a lot higher if them twats Godden & Hiwula put those chances away...we should of won that at least by 3-4 yesterday.

Creativity for me has been a problem up until half time yesterday where we come out and opened them up creating plenty.

I don’t feel we are clinical enough or strong enough in the wide forward positions to be in contention for automatic promotion,that could change in January if we were to get a player or
two in that has a major impact,JJ to come back also as it stands we have Hiwula & no right winger/inside forward but we are still playing 433.

fatso · Oct 14, 2019

Skybluefaz said:
The passing didn't miss the chances. Hope that helps

But we keep missing the chances, game after game after game,
We’ve got away with it this season by grabbing the odd late goal, but the goal difference highlights our very obvious problem. Some kind of change is going to have to happen as teams have worked us out, they sit deep stifle the space around the box, then hit us on the break.
Hope the explanation helps.

Skybluefaz · Oct 14, 2019

fatso said:
But we keep missing the chances, game after game after game,
We’ve got away with it this season by grabbing the odd late goal, but the goal difference highlights our very obvious problem. Some kind of change is going to have to happen as teams have worked us out, they sit deep stifle the space around the box, then hit us on the break.
Hope the explanation helps.

No it doesn't. The problem is we aren't converting the chances, that's not down to the style or system. It's down to the individual.

Johnnythespider · Oct 14, 2019

Magwitch said:
True I was thinking Doncaster

Easy mistake to make

fernandopartridge · Oct 14, 2019

I'm stunned you haven't suggested that Ponticelli is the answer

stevefloyd · Oct 14, 2019

we have to get a little bit real here, we are a 3rd tier league team with lowish crowds, we have a striker we paid £750k for alledgedly now considering the league we are in thats quite an amount, a few games ago he was being lauded now he is most peoples scapegoat!!! McNulty wasn't the best finisher at the start so lets not knee jerk, we don't have a lot of options up front probably due to pushing the boat out and paying so much for Godden, we are to an extent dominating games but without the final product atm, lets hope it comes soon, Hiwula on the other hand can certainly score goals but he has been in and out of games since he came here so maybe time for him to either step up or be farmed out to get someone to help Godden and the team more...keep the faith guys and gals its our best start for years so hopefully we get it back on track again, our midfield is the weak link I would say atm get Kelly back in and fit then hopefully Allen will get up to speed quick and again bolster us

fatso · Oct 14, 2019

Skybluefaz said:
No it doesn't. The problem is we aren't converting the chances, that's not down to the style or system. It's down to the individual.

Then change the individual!
Both Hiwula and Godden have been given more than enough chances.
Maybe Kastaneer is worth a punt up front or O’hare could be played more centrally along side a Bakayoko or Biamou, Maybe Bakayoko AND Biamou play together, I don’t know what the answer is, but I know something has to change.

LilleSkyBlue · Oct 14, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
I'm stunned you haven't suggested that Ponticelli is the answer

Get him in

Warwickhunt · Oct 14, 2019

I think Hiwula needs a kick up the arse to get him motivated! at the moment he is a shoe in for the position and knows he is going to start evry game! Put his position under threat and he will perform.

cc84cov · Oct 14, 2019

I much longer see we willing to wait for Hiwula to step up ?

Would like to see us with 2 up front Biamou & Godden,midfield 3 of Walsh Kelly Shipley with O’Hare behind Biamou & Godden

4312

Marosi
Dabo hyam rose mason
Kelly Walsh Shipley
O’Hare
Godden Biamou

Gazolba · Oct 14, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
I'm stunned you haven't suggested that Ponticelli is the answer

He might not be the answer but could he be any worse than Godden given the same number of minutes?
He must be enough of a danger that we didn't allow Tranmere to play him against us.

Nick · Oct 14, 2019

Gazolba said:
He might not be the answer but could he be any worse than Godden given the same number of minutes?
He must be enough of a danger that we didn't allow Tranmere to play him against us.

You do realise he doesn't play for them anyway, right?

Gazolba · Oct 14, 2019

Nick said:
You do realise he doesn't play for them anyway, right?

He's normally on their bench but wasn't on Sunday since he's not allowed to play against us.

Nick · Oct 14, 2019

Gazolba said:
He's normally on their bench but wasn't on Sunday since he's not allowed to play against us.

Not much of a danger on the bench

cc84cov · Oct 14, 2019

Gazolba said:
He's normally on their bench but wasn't on Sunday since he's not allowed to play against us.

Don’t think he’s even been making the bench mate lately

SAJ · Oct 14, 2019

Gazolba said:
Surely it's not just a coincidence that last season, of the top 9 teams, we had the lowest goal difference (0).
The auto promoted teams had a GD of +48 and +41.
That's a fair indication of how far off the pace we were!
They scored one more or conceded one less than us EVERY WEEK.
Exactly the same thing is happening this season.
We currently have the lowest GD of the top 10 teams (+1).
Even lower than Burton or Gillingham who are 14th and 15th.
This seems to indicate we either have a poor defence or a poor attack, or both.
You can debate which, but you can't dispute the figures.

This is a typical one dimensional view of stats. Two weeks ago the goal difference was +6 which actually had us with the 3rd highest goal difference and only 4 teams who had conceded less than us. So is just goes to show you can make stats show what you want. The only stat that matters is your total number of points come May.

Gazolba · Oct 15, 2019

SAJ said:
This is a typical one dimensional view of stats. Two weeks ago the goal difference was +6 which actually had us with the 3rd highest goal difference and only 4 teams who had conceded less than us. So is just goes to show you can make stats show what you want. The only stat that matters is your total number of points come May.

Look at last season's final table and what do you see in the GD column?
Notice how closely it correlates with points and table position?

Esoterica · Oct 15, 2019

Here's the last 3 L1 seasons sorted by 'Wins by a 1 goal margin' and marked with league position. I think it's a slightly different angle than pure goal difference.

18 of our 23 wins in L1 since promotion have been by a 1 goal margin (78%)
Last season, 2018/2019, there's a clear trend with league position & win % by 1 goal.
There's not much of a data set yet for 2019/2020 but already a pattern is starting to form.
Only Shrewsbury have had a successful season with a 1 goal win margin percentage anywhere near ours in the last 3 seasons, losing in the play off final. They kept a clean sheet in 35% of their matches, 9 of their wins were 1-0 but the key for them was they were only losing in 5 games at HT all season (we're up to 3 already).

We can (and probably will :emoji_joy debate the reasons behind our above stats for hours - maybe that's an age/experience issues with our young squad, maybe it's the in game tactics/subs, maybe it's the change of formation and 12 new players every season, maybe the strikers are .

It's going to be very hard to get out of this division until we can start winning games comfortably, that's clear. It's a long old season when you have to play every game at 100%, with your strongest team out to try and nick the goal for a win/draw or protect the 1 goal lead.

cc84cov · Oct 15, 2019

Esoterica said:
Here's the last 3 L1 seasons sorted by 'Wins by a 1 goal margin' and marked with league position. I think it's a slightly different angle than pure goal difference.
View attachment 13228

18 of our 23 wins in L1 since promotion have been by a 1 goal margin (78%)

Last season, 2018/2019, there's a clear trend with league position & win % by 1 goal.

There's not much of a data set yet for 2019/2020 but already a pattern is starting to form.

Only Shrewsbury have had a successful season with a 1 goal win margin percentage anywhere near ours in the last 3 seasons, losing in the play off final. They kept a clean sheet in 35% of their matches, 9 of their wins were 1-0 but the key for them was they were only losing in 5 games at HT all season (we're up to 3 already).

We can (and probably will :emoji_joy debate the reasons behind our above stats for hours - maybe that's an age/experience issues with our young squad, maybe it's the in game tactics/subs, maybe it's the change of formation and 12 new players every season, maybe the strikers are .

It's going to be very hard to get out of this division until we can start winning games comfortably, that's clear. It's a long old season when you have to play every game at 100%, with your strongest team out to try and nick the goal for a win/draw or protect the 1 goal lead.

Good post

covcity4life · Oct 15, 2019

just wanna concentrate on winning again right now

Gazolba · Oct 15, 2019

Winning football games equates to just 2 things, scoring goals and not conceding goals.
A 1-0 win is as good as a 3-0 win.
If we won every game 1-0 we'd probably have the best GD in the division.
Only one team bettered that last season, the champions Luton.
We haven't done well at either scoring or not conceding in the past 2 seasons, hence our poor GD figures.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Oct 15, 2019

Gazolba said:
Winning football games equates to just 2 things, scoring goals and not conceding goals.
A 1-0 win is as good as a 3-0 win.
If we won every game 1-0 we'd probably have the best GD in the division.
Only one team bettered that last season, the champions Luton.
We haven't done well at either scoring or not conceding in the past 2 seasons, hence our poor GD figures.

You are indeed correct, but being one nil up you will at some stage concede a late goal or goals and thus lose points. If you're already winning 2-0 or 3-0 at that stage you will still ensure you get all the points.

Of course you'll say better to win 3 games 1-0 than 1 game 3-0 then draw the other two 0-0, but I'd argue it's better to win all three games 2 or 3-0.

stevefloyd · Oct 16, 2019

We never seem once we have scored or should i say if to press on and hunt for more goals although its been a little better this season, if Hiwula happens to score its like he thinks ' thats me job done for the day' nobody seems hungry enough or is that Robins tactics?

Gazolba · Oct 16, 2019

stevefloyd said:
We never seem once we have scored or should i say if to press on and hunt for more goals although its been a little better this season, if Hiwula happens to score its like he thinks ' thats me job done for the day' nobody seems hungry enough or is that Robins tactics?

Robin's tactics since that is the one constant.
I would venture to say he is an overly cautious manager.
Always plays defensive away even against poor teams.
As soon as the team is ahead, he goes defensive to hold onto the lead.
Very slow to make substitutions.
Never takes a risk on younger strikers (Sambou, Ponticelli, Bremang).

Skybluefaz · Oct 16, 2019

Gazolba said:
Robin's tactics since that is the one constant.
I would venture to say he is an overly cautious manager.
Always plays defensive away even against poor teams.
As soon as the team is ahead, he goes defensive to hold onto the lead.
Very slow to make substitutions.
Never takes a risk on younger strikers (Sambou, Ponticelli, Bremang).

Sambou in the pre season before Robins returned didn't he? The rest is absolute shit, but that's your opinion. So you are entitled to that.

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