kapowaz
Well-Known Member
So, inspired by thread about The Run In I decided to have a go at creating a tool for predicting the outcome of the league table based on the remaining fixtures, which you can find here: http://predictor.ccfc.nu/. It now has a go at predicting the actual results for the remainder of the season, and tabulating the results.
As before, you can enter your own predictions, but if you scroll down and click the auto-predict tab, which will have a guess as to the likely results based on the past 10 match form for each team. Of course, these guesses are extremely naïve, so it’s likely to be quite wrong, but you can switch back to the Make predictions tab and edit the guesses yourself to see how you like it.
Obviously take it with big pinch of salt, but the predictor currently thinks we’ll finish 4th:
The way it works out how matches might resolve is pretty bad and I’d love to have something more accurate that takes into account goals scored/conceded etc. but this is pretty deep statistical analysis. It’s a little bit feedback-loopy right now (so if you are on a losing streak it makes your form worse so you’re more likely to lose again… see Grimsby and Port Vale). An earlier version that was even more naïve actually had us finishing 3rd, but it also had Luton in 5th so I knew it wasn’t quite right!
As before, you can enter your own predictions, but if you scroll down and click the auto-predict tab, which will have a guess as to the likely results based on the past 10 match form for each team. Of course, these guesses are extremely naïve, so it’s likely to be quite wrong, but you can switch back to the Make predictions tab and edit the guesses yourself to see how you like it.
Obviously take it with big pinch of salt, but the predictor currently thinks we’ll finish 4th:
The way it works out how matches might resolve is pretty bad and I’d love to have something more accurate that takes into account goals scored/conceded etc. but this is pretty deep statistical analysis. It’s a little bit feedback-loopy right now (so if you are on a losing streak it makes your form worse so you’re more likely to lose again… see Grimsby and Port Vale). An earlier version that was even more naïve actually had us finishing 3rd, but it also had Luton in 5th so I knew it wasn’t quite right!