last 10 form (2 Viewers)

Robinshio · 2026-01-21T12:09:31+0000

so if everyone continues their form from the last 10 (when we have wobbled at 1.5 points per game)

Ipswich would get 94 points
Hull 89
Us 85
Boro 85 (Worse GD)
Watford 73
Millwall 73

so carry on being average, and its probably ok, but we also need to keep an eye on Hull who have some good wins
Anyone outside of the top 4 is probably out of reach of the top 2

djr8369 · 2026-01-21T12:33:01+0000

Hull are over performing

Robinshio said:
so if everyone continues their form from the last 10 (when we have wobbled at 1.5 points per game)

Ipswich would get 94 points
Hull 89
Us 85
Boro 85 (Worse GD)
Watford 73
Millwall 73

so carry on being average, and its probably ok, but we also need to keep an eye on Hull who have some good wins
Anyone outside of the top 4 is probably out of reach of the top 2

Hull are over performing their xG by an outrageous amount but have kept it up all season. Hopefully they drop off. Think we will struggle to stay above Ipswich. Boro tough call. Regardless we need to improve our form and be very careful.

Martw · 2026-01-21T12:34:22+0000

djr8369 said:
Hull are over performing

Hull are over performing their xG by an outrageous amount but have kept it up all season. Hopefully they drop off. Think we will struggle to stay above Ipswich. Boro tough call. Regardless we need to improve our form and be very careful.

I also guess hull have to play both Ipswich and Boro again??

covcity4life · 2026-01-21T12:35:47+0000

Robinshio said:
so if everyone continues their form from the last 10 (when we have wobbled at 1.5 points per game)

Ipswich would get 94 points
Hull 89
Us 85
Boro 85 (Worse GD)
Watford 73
Millwall 73

so carry on being average, and its probably ok, but we also need to keep an eye on Hull who have some good wins
Anyone outside of the top 4 is probably out of reach of the top 2

Can't see hull keeping it up enough for autos

Boro are a worry but hopefully they fall away too. Starting tonight

We are in a good place wide that's our forecast when we had a blip

djr8369 · 2026-01-21T12:38:14+0000

Martw said:
I also guess hull have to play both Ipswich and Boro again??

Good point.

SkyBlue_Bear83 · 2026-01-21T12:46:02+0000

Martw said:
I also guess hull have to play both Ipswich and Boro again??

They've played Boro twice

Grendel · 2026-01-21T12:57:15+0000

Our home form is ridiculously strong. If you apply that we win through pretty easily.

SeaSeeEffCee · 2026-01-21T13:06:22+0000

Hull’s form is very good and they’ve won away at Middlesbrough, Millwall, Preston and Southampton in that time. Don’t think they’ll have enough to catch us but they are flying.

Martw · 2026-01-21T13:06:25+0000

SkyBlue_Bear83 said:
They've played Boro twice

Bugga

RoysterE17 · 2026-01-21T16:27:16+0000

Stoke to slap boro tonight to give us some more wriggle room

sc1940 · 2026-01-21T16:52:18+0000

Robinshio said:
so if everyone continues their form from the last 10 (when we have wobbled at 1.5 points per game)

Ipswich would get 94 points
Hull 89
Us 85
Boro 85 (Worse GD)
Watford 73
Millwall 73

so carry on being average, and its probably ok, but we also need to keep an eye on Hull who have some good wins
Anyone outside of the top 4 is probably out of reach of the top 2

I'm interested to know why you chose the last 10 games, the run where we were badly hit with illness and had our most difficult run of opponents.
If you re-work it using 2 games either side (i.e. 8 & 12) we scored 1.75ppg for both, which would give us 89/90 points. I haven't worked out the total impact of that across the other teams though.

alexccfc99 · 2026-01-21T17:02:15+0000

SeaSeeEffCee said:
Hull’s form is very good and they’ve won away at Middlesbrough, Millwall, Preston and Southampton in that time. Don’t think they’ll have enough to catch us but they are flying.

Yep, I don't like the look of going there on Easter Monday during the run in

Robinshio · 2026-01-21T17:44:33+0000

sc1940 said:
I'm interested to know why you chose the last 10 games, the run where we were badly hit with illness and had our most difficult run of opponents.
If you re-work it using 2 games either side (i.e. 8 & 12) we scored 1.75ppg for both, which would give us 89/90 points. I haven't worked out the total impact of that across the other teams though.

It was exactly for that. To show at our lowest where we would still be

Mucca Mad Boys · 2026-01-21T18:37:40+0000

Grendel said:
Our home form is ridiculously strong. If you apply that we win through pretty easily.

Only 4 of our last 10 were at home.

Meanwhile, Ipswich have had 6/10 be at home. Ipswich have a home record just as good as ours albeit we’ve played 1 game less at home. Ipswich have been flawless at home all season, it’s on the road where they struggle.

That in large part explains why Ipswich have closed the gap. Ipswich have only won 1 of their last 5 away games and of course it’s against us. The best teams away from home in this league rarely average 2 ppg away, it’s usually their home record that’s 2.3-2.5 ppg and away it’s usually around 1.7-1.9 ppg.

In February is where we start to pull away from Ipswich and Boro again imo. If we carry our home form, we finish on 57-58 points. That’d put us on 80-81 points without picking up a single point away from home.

last 10 form (2 Viewers)

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