Interesting (1 Viewer)

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Feb 15, 2012

Based on recent form we are staying up
http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/runin.html
It predicts Milwall, Forest and Donny to be relegated based on recent form extrapolated over the last 15 games, now we just need to figure out how to accumulate 1/2 points and we will be going places.
Probably going to be way off but I love my stats and was just browsing when I came across these.

dongonzalos · Feb 15, 2012

come on, not bad considering according to some we have the worse manager in the world..........

Grendel · Feb 15, 2012

dongonzalos said:
come on, not bad considering according to some we have the worse manager in the world..........

Don't think anyone has said that actually.

mark82 · Feb 15, 2012

According to that Pompey would also finish below us, given their 10 point deduction. Doesn't take into account Tuesdays games either.

Colonel Mustard · Feb 15, 2012

CCFC is a very, very consistent team in terms of points accumulation. Our hopes here are raised not because we're doing so well, but because others are doing so poorly at the moment. Long may it continue, but it shouldn't be banked upon.

wingy · Feb 15, 2012

mark82 said:
According to that Pompey would also finish below us, given their 10 point deduction. Doesn't take into account Tuesdays games either.

Think it does mark.

mark82 · Feb 16, 2012

wingy said:
Think it does mark.

Yep. You're right. Just looked and saw us bottom and assumed.

torchomatic · Feb 16, 2012

True. They've just said ''fuck of Thorn you fat...'' and ''Thorn is shit''.

kduffy said:
Don't think anyone has said that actually.

torchomatic · Feb 16, 2012

Oh, you still can't do it can you? Give credit to the team.

Colonel Mustard said:
CCFC is a very, very consistent team in terms of points accumulation. Our hopes here are raised not because we're doing so well, but because others are doing so poorly at the moment. Long may it continue, but it shouldn't be banked upon.

Otis · Feb 16, 2012

torchomatic said:
True. They've just said ''fuck of Thorn you fat...'' and ''Thorn is shit''.

Does that say 'worst manager in the world?' Nope.
:facepalm:

@richh87 · Feb 16, 2012

It's ok they're in the minority and not respected because they ignore the restraints and attractive football - which makes them look unreasonable.

I can't see us staying up - we have no squad. If Plato or Nimely get injured we don't have a fit striker.

Astute · Feb 16, 2012

@richh87 said:
It's ok they're in the minority and not respected because they ignore the restraints and attractive football - which makes them look unreasonable.

I can't see us staying up - we have no squad. If Plato or Nimely get injured we don't have a fit striker.

Spot on other than I think we will stay up. As you say though, down to if we get any more injuries. AT is not a miracle worker, but with the squad he has had this season it will be close to a miracle to keep us up. It would be down to AT, loanees, but mainly the youth players that have come in and done a good job.

hughescov · Feb 16, 2012

'Highest possible finish - 1'

I still believe!

ccfcway · Feb 16, 2012

those stats have us down for 4 more wins...

1 more win and a draw on top of that (according to those stats) would keep us up !!!!!

So, if these stats are anything to go by we could go down for not being able to hold onto leads v Blackpool and Ipswich

covcity4life · Feb 16, 2012

torchomatic said:
True. They've just said ''fuck of Thorn you fat...'' and ''Thorn is shit''.

stop taking threads off topic

Colonel Mustard · Feb 16, 2012

torchomatic said:
Oh, you still can't do it can you? Give credit to the team.

A shame. I expected better from a poster such as yourself.

All I said is that CCFC are consistent to the point of being predictable when it comes to point accumulation (which this thread is about - not the merits of AT's stewardship). There is no 'surge', no great turnaround. The facts bear this out. For example:

Average points-per-game across the entire season: 0.8
Average points-per-game in the first half of the season (games 1-15 out of 31): 0.8
Average points-per-game in the second half of the season (games 16 - 31 out of 31): 0.8
Average points-per-game in the last seven games: 0.85
Average points-per-game in the last four games: 0.75

We're as flat as a pancake.

Considering this and the fact that our average points-per-game is the lowest in the Championship, it is perfectly reasonable to then say that we need to rely on other teams to continue tanking - either through horrific form or via administration - in order for CCFC to avoid relegation.

It may not be rabble-rousing and crotch-grabbing...but it is pretty honest analysis. Give the lads a pat on the back by all means, but if you actually step back and look at the bigger picture once in a while all you will see is a long, static line.

Covstu · Feb 16, 2012

i am concerned that this level of consistency is going to get us accross the line in the end, Forest game is one of the biggest games Coventry have played for many a year and IS the make or break game of the season for us. A draw would be fine as long as we can keep in touch with the bottom 4/5 i.e. millwall etc.

We are also relying on Portsmouth crashing, but we need to keep up on our own merits and not have to rely on that factor!

SkyBlue_Bear83 · Feb 16, 2012

Colonel Mustard said:
A shame. I expected better from a poster such as yourself.

All I said is that CCFC are consistent to the point of being predictable when it comes to point accumulation (which this thread is about - not the merits of AT's stewardship). There is no 'surge', no great turnaround. The facts bear this out. For example:

Average points-per-game across the entire season: 0.8
Average points-per-game in the first half of the season (games 1-15 out of 31): 0.8
Average points-per-game in the second half of the season (games 16 - 31 out of 31): 0.8
Average points-per-game in the last seven games: 0.85
Average points-per-game in the last four games: 0.75

We're as flat as a pancake.

Considering this and the fact that our average points-per-game is the lowest in the Championship, it is perfectly reasonable to then say that we need to rely on other teams to continue tanking - either through horrific form or via administration - in order for CCFC to avoid relegation.

It may not be rabble-rousing and crotch-grabbing...but it is pretty honest analysis. Give the lads a pat on the back by all means, but if you actually step back and look at the bigger picture once in a while all you will see is a long, static line.

Average point from last 9 games: 1.33

Colonel Mustard · Feb 16, 2012

CCFC said:
Average point from last 9 games: 1.33

Average points-per-game from the last game: three.

The difference in our analyses is that I am assessing the team over an entire season in much more reasonable chunks. The whole season, cut in half, cut it in half again, cut it in half again. It gives a broad view of what this team is about, as well as closer analysis that fits the bigger pattern.

For example, you're counting the most recent five home games which resulted in four wins. By the same token, we lost all our corresponding away fixtures. Now if you had to use our statistics this season to take a guess at which of those factors is most likely to tail off, which would you choose?

hackneyfox · Feb 16, 2012

Can I have a guess?

You've got me worried, you'll be catching us soon.

gally9 · Feb 16, 2012

Not even we could catch a team running away with the league such as you are..

What? Oh hold on

Astute · Feb 16, 2012

Colonel Mustard said:
Average points-per-game from the last game: three.

The difference in our analyses is that I am assessing the team over an entire season in much more reasonable chunks. The whole season, cut in half, cut it in half again, cut it in half again. It gives a broad view of what this team is about, as well as closer analysis that fits the bigger pattern.

For example, you're counting the most recent five home games which resulted in four wins. By the same token, we lost all our corresponding away fixtures. Now if you had to use our statistics this season to take a guess at which of those factors is most likely to tail off, which would you choose?

Points per game when Nimely has played? Hopefully this will get better as well.

Grendel · Feb 17, 2012

Astute said:
Points per game when Nimely has played? Hopefully this will get better as well.

5 games 6 points. 1.2 points per game.

Colonel Mustard · Feb 17, 2012

Astute said:
Points per game when Nimely has played? Hopefully this will get better as well.

Kduffy just saved me having to look it up, but it just goes to show the problems of micro-analysis. On the surface, yes, CCFC has experienced an increase in points with Nimely aboard.

But you have to add commentary to raw data: we won the last game courtesy of two penalties, which is something of a freak event and still doesn't say much about our goalscoring capacity over the remaining run of games. And those final seconds of the game were the difference between a 1.2 average for Nimely and a (you guessed it) 0.8 average, had it been a draw.

All things being equal - and they have been for the entire season - we'll see his PPG average drop.

Astute · Feb 17, 2012

The difference is he gets into positions to get penalties. He looks like he will go far. Shame we only have him on loan. Saying that if he was our player he would have been sold by now.

@richh87 · Feb 17, 2012

Very consistent data. Thankfully football isn't as predictable as that.

The signing of Nimely has given us the ability to hit teams on the break and makes our attack much more potent.

We've not had problems dominating possession; but really hurting teams in the final third. The new look strikeforce are changing this and, if they stay fit, I expect the points haul to go up a bit.

oldskyblue58 · Feb 17, 2012

@richh87 said:
We've not had problems dominating possession; but really hurting teams in the final third. The new look strikeforce are changing this and, if they stay fit, I expect the points haul to go up a bit.

thats the key bit isnt it ............ Nimely said after the match he nearly didnt make the Leeds game because of ankle & knee problems, and was hobbling badly after it. Had he missed that game then would we have won it ? academic I know. But it makes the point as to how fine the margins are

Right now I am crossing my fingers he is fit for Saturday.

Think what Colonel is saying is be cautious we are a long way from out of the mire and the facts/stats of the season so far indicate that it will be a struggle, dependent in part on how the teams around us do. Small things can have a great effect on our future (injuries for one) and not all in our control (pompey situation) but we need to improve the stats for the season to be safe.

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