How many points for survival? (1 Viewer)

grego_gee · Apr 11, 2012

They think it's all over! ..... It's not yet!

Well I had to look at it!
here's my take, we finish level with Bristol on 45 pts.
(lets hope we can take our better goal average with us)
PUSB!

Click here

I'll update it over the run-in.

LastGarrison · Apr 11, 2012

Leave it out mate Scroobious does the spreadsheets round here.....

sky_blue_up_north · Apr 11, 2012

Barnsley are shocking Bristol will beat them.

torchomatic · Apr 11, 2012

"Forest are shocking, Leeds will beat them"
"Forest are shocking, Brum will beat them"
"Our away form is shocking, Hull will beat us"
"Bristol are shocking, Forest will beat them"

sky_blue_up_north said:
Barnsley are shocking Bristol will beat them.

SonofErnie · Apr 11, 2012

1 more point than Bristol over the next 3 games to give us a chance on the last day. It's not beyond Barnsley to get a draw, they're not that bad defensively, after all we only beat them in the last 10 minutes

smileycov · Apr 11, 2012

I fear for us now, and i have always had hope! Bristol will most definately get at least 3 points possibly 4, we however can probally look at 6 if we are lucky. So on my thinking we need a point or more at Burnley and/or Southampton. Just can not see it. #weblewthe6pointers

SkyBluePryce · Apr 11, 2012

does anyone else think that barnsley will lose all their remaining games? unlikely but looking at each game individually i would say they would lose all 4. potentially meanning 2 wins and 2 draws, or a cheeky away win would mean survival..... long shot but staying optimistic

Otis · Apr 11, 2012

My worry now is that we will lie down and go down without as much as a whimper on Saturday.

Kind of expecting a "feeling sorry for ourselves" attitude and an easy win for Burnley. Going to to have to predict a 0-3 defeat.

Hope I'm wrong of course, but i think a combination of our being back in the bottom 3, being 4 points adrift and having mounting injuries, is going to take it's toll.

Think we will try but will lack spirit and just go down with little fight.

grego_gee · Apr 11, 2012

sky_blue_up_north said:
Barnsley are shocking Bristol will beat them.

If Bristol beat Barnsley, we are well buried!
that's a cruncher!:slap:

grego_gee · Apr 11, 2012

Otis said:
Kind of expecting a "feeling sorry for ourselves" attitude and an easy win for Burnley.

That's not gonna happen!

CovLis86 · Apr 11, 2012

Sadly, I think i a gree with Otis. I fear that after Mondays gutless display, the game against Burnley may be even more so, and we may well get turned over and thats the end of our Championship stay.
Its going to take something pretty special to get out of this mess, and it truly would be the greatest of all our escapes.

LeamingtonBootBoy · Apr 11, 2012

We'll see how much spirit there is in the camp, and what a 'great bunch of lads' we have at the club this Saturday......

smileycov · Apr 11, 2012

Anyone know, the current injury list that rules anyone out for saturday?

grego_gee · Apr 11, 2012

subbed on sat
67 Chris Hussey
86 Gary Deegan
78 Cody McDonald
Chris Hussey went off early with an injury, didn't look too serious, the other two were just knackered!

LeamingtonBootBoy · Apr 11, 2012

Why was Deegan knackered, he did fuck all...oh apart from the fuck up for the first goal....at least McSheffrey will be fresh for Saturday seeing as he also did fuck all on Monday.....:jerkit:

Otis · Apr 11, 2012

grego_gee said:
subbed on sat
67 Chris Hussey
86 Gary Deegan
78 Cody McDonald
Chris Hussey went off early with an injury, didn't look too serious, the other two were just knackered!

Platt, Nimely and Keogh were all playing with knocks too. It's like the walking wounded.

Or in our case, The Walking Dead.

The mind is willing but the spirit is weak.

LeamingtonBootBoy · Apr 11, 2012

I agree that it isn't all over, but one stat to consider;

Feb 25 - we beat Barnsley and were 3 points from saftey
mid-April - after a run of 3 defeats in 10/11 games, we are 4 points from safety

We are no nearer achieving our task than 6 weeks ago....so a monumental improvement needed in the next 4 games.

Another stat to consider....we have won 9 games in 44 and even on our recent 'good run' we have won 4 in 12....we only win 1 in 5 as an average, and 1 in 3 if you really want to take a short term snapshot.

Based on the above, I'm seeing it hard to find the 2/3 wins in 4 games that we need.....hence why I stated that Bristol was more a must not lose, rather than must win....as I think 1 win and 2 draws is possible from our last 4 games, but 2 wins and 2 draws is a tall order for this set of players....we draw too many games.

Good football? I see low-risk football....keep possession and try not to lose games seems to be AT's tactic...and that won't keep us up IMO.

grego_gee · Apr 11, 2012

"We are no nearer achieving our task than 6 weeks ago....so a monumental improvement needed in the next 4 games."
True, but our recent form is good, and it depends who you are playing - Southampton is a tough one but the other three are softer than games relegation rivals are facing.

"Good football? I see low-risk football....keep possession and try not to lose games seems to be AT's tactic...and that won't keep us up IMO."
I don't think that's fair, I think we lost against Bristol because he (Thorn) was trying to win it. On reflection 1 point would have been invaluable!

PhilWasn'tBabb · Apr 11, 2012

LeamingtonBootBoy said:
I agree that it isn't all over, but one stat to consider;

Feb 25 - we beat Barnsley and were 3 points from saftey
mid-April - after a run of 3 defeats in 10/11 games, we are 4 points from safety

We are no nearer achieving our task than 6 weeks ago....so a monumental improvement needed in the next 4 games.

Another stat to consider....we have won 9 games in 44 and even on our recent 'good run' we have won 4 in 12....we only win 1 in 5 as an average, and 1 in 3 if you really want to take a short term snapshot.

Based on the above, I'm seeing it hard to find the 2/3 wins in 4 games that we need.....hence why I stated that Bristol was more a must not lose, rather than must win....as I think 1 win and 2 draws is possible from our last 4 games, but 2 wins and 2 draws is a tall order for this set of players....we draw too many games.

Good football? I see low-risk football....keep possession and try not to lose games seems to be AT's tactic...and that won't keep us up IMO.

Well... that has put pay to all my hopes of staying up.... dam you and your damed states

grego_gee · Apr 11, 2012

PhilWasn'tBabb said:
Well... that has put pay to all my hopes of staying up.... dam you and your damed states

What have the americans got to do with it?
I've got us staying up with one win and 3 draws!

Click here

Otis · Apr 11, 2012

Certainly can't see us winning 3 games and it would pretty much have to be 3 games in a row, so we do need Bristol to fail. 2 defeats in succession to Brum and West Ham would help for starters.

Astute · Apr 11, 2012

smileycov said:
Anyone know, the current injury list that rules anyone out for saturday?

More to the point, does anyone know of any players not on the injury list?

LeamingtonBootBoy · Apr 11, 2012

grego_gee said:
"I think we lost against Bristol because he (Thorn) was trying to win it

What game were you watching??

First worthwhile shot on target by one of our players came in the 88th minute.....

LeamingtonBootBoy · Apr 11, 2012

PhilWasn'tBabb said:
Well... that has put pay to all my hopes of staying up.... dam you and your damed states

Stats don't always reflect the future....here's hoping they don't in our case!

Trying to keep the faith, but really down after Monday.

Otis · Apr 11, 2012

LeamingtonBootBoy said:
What game were you watching??

First worthwhile shot on target by one of our players came in the 88th minute.....

We were trying to keep things tight and dominate possession if anything. We weren't exactly throwing bodies forwards were we.

LeamingtonBootBoy · Apr 11, 2012

We rarely do. Clingan sits too close to the back 4 and therefore the opposition midfield invariably dominates possession.

I like Clive Platt, but playing him makes it too tempting to lump it upfield after a couple of 5/10 yard passes.

We have no width, and no one who is willing to run with the ball...that was one key difference between us and Bristol on Monday.

CovLis86 · Apr 11, 2012

We were bloody awful against Bristol. Anyone who says otherwise is mad. No passion, got dominated and didnt create a thing. Flukey own goal to get us ahead, completely against run of play.

All we can hope for is the players were so embarrased they can onyl play much better. Because now Bristol have the buzz that apparently weve had for last month... month too early perhaps.

LeamingtonBootBoy · Apr 11, 2012

Good football is only good football if there is an end product.

Keeping possession and playing 5/10 yard balls to end up where you started or to end with a hoof to Clive Platt is not good football...in my book.

It seems that this is the definition of good football for some...starting with the coaching/management staff of the club and some of the fans...I respect that opinion.

However, then I look at the league table......:thinking about:

Perryccfc · Apr 11, 2012

I have been hoping and praying, but the Easter weekend was a disaster. We didn't beat Peterborough and brizzle went and won at forest! Then them beating us was the killer IMO. I don't think we will beat burnley or millwall. Doncaster possibly but I think we will be gone by then. It's so sad to see our club like this

idris65 · Apr 11, 2012

Perryccfc said:
I have been hoping and praying, but the Easter weekend was a disaster. We didn't beat Peterborough and brizzle went and won at forest! Then them beating us was the killer IMO. I don't think we will beat burnley or millwall. Doncaster possibly but I think we will be gone by then. It's so sad to see our club like this

yep we are well and truly up sheisse strasse.

grego_gee · Apr 15, 2012

Updated:3 matches left
Portsmouth winning away at Donny effects nothing (unless they win all their 3 remaining games)
Millwall have gone out of site with wins over 2 last games.
Bristol v Barnsley on 21st is still the cruncher, if Bristol beat Barnsley
we might wind up level with Barnsley and going through on GD

We need to win against Millwall and Donny, but maybe a draw against Millwall will just do!

Updated spreadsheet Click here
(I've opened the sheet for editing so you can try different results - please reset any changes afterwards)

grego_gee · Apr 15, 2012

Here's the number of points the last relegated team have gone down with over the last seven seasons.
This year it will be 45 or 47! imp:

2010-11 42 Preston
2009-10 47 Crystal Palace
2008-9 46 Plymouth
2007-8 52 Leicester
2006-7 42 Southend
2005-6 42 Crewe
2004-5 50 Gillingham

BackRoomRummermill · Apr 15, 2012

Were Crystal Palace ever relegated ?............................................

ccfcmurray · Apr 15, 2012

it was Sheffield Wednesday i think? I think at least 2 wins and we just hope others don't pick anything up

Brighton Sky Blue · Apr 15, 2012

Realistically it looks like we'll have to avoid defeat in the remaining fixtures, with Brizzle at home to Barnsley on the last day, if we're still in the equation we will certainly need something at St Mary's.

How many points for survival? (1 Viewer)

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