skybluebristol
Active Member
Inspired by something @CovRes posted on another thread. Bear with me on this, it's fairly long, apologies.
I went back and looked at the Championship since 2004 to try and get an idea of how many points we'll need to come first or second this season. First off, I looked at the total number of points required to reach each position, shown below. This isn't how many points that team got, it's how many a team would have needed to reach that position, so, the team finishing below +1. As you can see, the average number to win the league is rounded to 90 points, and for second place, 85 points.
That seems about right based on where we're at currently after 28 games. If you remove the top and bottom 3 totals from each column to account for outliers, the average barely moves.
I then went back to this point in each of the last 21 seasons, to see, on average, how many points are won by 1st & 2nd over the remaining 18 games.
On average, 1st place wins a total of 36.4 points over the remaining 18 games. 2nd place wins on average a total of 35.0 points over the remaining 18 games.
This, then, would give Cov a total of 94 points (round down). Boro, in second, would likely see a total of 87 points. Ipswich are tricky to predict. They're currently on 50 points, with a game in hand. If you allow them 3 points for their game in hand, they'd be on 53. Adding 35 (2nd place average) to their 53 would be 88 points, meaning that 89 would be enough to win the league.
Before we get too excited though, we need to remember that this is on average. In 9 of the last 21 seasons, the team finishing in second place has won more than 35 points, including in 20/21, where they hit 45!
So Ipswich...
Over their last 8, they're currently hitting 2.125 PPG. I picked their last 8, because that gives a fairly good idea of their form and where they are at as a team. I think it's tricky with Ipswich to base their predicted total on full season PPG as they are a much different side now than they were in October. Multiply (2.125 * 19 remaining games) + current points = 90 points. 91 points would therefore be enough to win the league.
For what it's worth, I think we'll win the league, and I think Ipswich will finish slightly lower than 90 points, perhaps closer to 88 or 89 (based on the averages in the first section above).
For us to have to hit 91, Ipswich would have to get almost 13 points (12.75) per every 6 games (18 available) which is a lot. If they do, then fair play, because that's 4 wins and a draw in every 6. They'd need to win 12 of their last 19 games, draw 4, and lose only 3 more to hit 90. It's the Championship, so...
We're on 58 points right now. That means we only need 33 points (probably).
9 wins, 6 draws (3 losses) should be all we need.
I went back and looked at the Championship since 2004 to try and get an idea of how many points we'll need to come first or second this season. First off, I looked at the total number of points required to reach each position, shown below. This isn't how many points that team got, it's how many a team would have needed to reach that position, so, the team finishing below +1. As you can see, the average number to win the league is rounded to 90 points, and for second place, 85 points.
That seems about right based on where we're at currently after 28 games. If you remove the top and bottom 3 totals from each column to account for outliers, the average barely moves.
I then went back to this point in each of the last 21 seasons, to see, on average, how many points are won by 1st & 2nd over the remaining 18 games.
On average, 1st place wins a total of 36.4 points over the remaining 18 games. 2nd place wins on average a total of 35.0 points over the remaining 18 games.
This, then, would give Cov a total of 94 points (round down). Boro, in second, would likely see a total of 87 points. Ipswich are tricky to predict. They're currently on 50 points, with a game in hand. If you allow them 3 points for their game in hand, they'd be on 53. Adding 35 (2nd place average) to their 53 would be 88 points, meaning that 89 would be enough to win the league.
Before we get too excited though, we need to remember that this is on average. In 9 of the last 21 seasons, the team finishing in second place has won more than 35 points, including in 20/21, where they hit 45!
So Ipswich...
Over their last 8, they're currently hitting 2.125 PPG. I picked their last 8, because that gives a fairly good idea of their form and where they are at as a team. I think it's tricky with Ipswich to base their predicted total on full season PPG as they are a much different side now than they were in October. Multiply (2.125 * 19 remaining games) + current points = 90 points. 91 points would therefore be enough to win the league.
For what it's worth, I think we'll win the league, and I think Ipswich will finish slightly lower than 90 points, perhaps closer to 88 or 89 (based on the averages in the first section above).
For us to have to hit 91, Ipswich would have to get almost 13 points (12.75) per every 6 games (18 available) which is a lot. If they do, then fair play, because that's 4 wins and a draw in every 6. They'd need to win 12 of their last 19 games, draw 4, and lose only 3 more to hit 90. It's the Championship, so...
We're on 58 points right now. That means we only need 33 points (probably).
9 wins, 6 draws (3 losses) should be all we need.